Thursday November 9th
The DATA shown below that will be released today has moved markets in the past, so at 8:30 we may see a difference in the futures and then at 2 p.m. things may also be affected by whatever Chairman Powell says. That said, let’s look at the charts…
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SPX – The General Markets are slowly chugging higher day after day. You can see by the lower wick that they’ve actually been down every day too, but they close with buying toward the end of the day. We are now on day 9, above the 50sma, but we are also at the upper trend line / resistance area. The break of the downtrend signals that an ICL is in place, but this move has already been much stronger than the last two runs out of the lows.
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THE NASDAQ is also up against that overhead downtrend line. Here we see a shakeout at the 200sma for the ICL and then a 9 day rally that easily pushed through the 50sma. This could pause or pullback with the release of the jobless claims, but that also could push price through the downtrend. 
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Last Thursday was the strong gap higher move on day 5 of this rally, so we’ll see if this jobless claim causes a gap open over the downtrend(?), or is this move simply in need of a rest and we get a pull back at resistance?
WTIC – Oil continued to drop and that was a 2.6% drop below the 200sma. This is why I mentioned yesterday that I wait for a reversal and even a proper swing low before I buy into a market that is dropping. On day 54 though, this should be very close to the dcl. The concern that I see here however…
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WTIC – The concern that I see with this chart is that it broke below the last dcl on this drop. This is a failure in Oil, so now it may only run up to the 50sma and roll over again. I am not going to bother trading Oil at this time.
This is a failure in Oil, so now it may only run up to the 50sma and roll over again.
Notice what happens if f I ‘Copy & Paste’ the last run from day 31 to 41. We get a run to the 50sma and then it rolls over like this. That was a choppy mess, so for that reason I am not going to bother trading Oil at this time.
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THE USD is bouncing, but I’m hoping that either the jobless claims or especially whatever Powell says today reverses this to continue its path lower. It did break below and fail the last daily cycle so it should be showing more weakness and not strength, therefore this is just a bounce, causing Gold & Silver to pull back.
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And this is our GOLD pullback. Gold actually looks fine, it looks bullish, but Silver is struggling below the 200sma and Miners are always an exaggeration of the move, which is frustrating when it is a move lower.
1. Is this just a drop to back-test of the breakout? Maybe.
2. Will this drop to the 50 or 200sma with the jobless claims, in that circle on my chart, or reverse right here? We’ll see.
3. Will this drop to the 50sma and then whatever Powell says at 2 p.m. reverses this higher? Well, Gold has been running higher from the beginning of October, so We’ll have to wait and see what can reverse this dip.
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On this GOLD chart without the downtrend line, you can see that it looks normal for Gold to drop to the $1940 area as a 38.2% Fib dip that gets price to the 50 or 200sma. What if this drops a little more from here? If this reverses at day 27, 28, or 29 – it could be a slightly early dcl that remains R.T. A reversal on Day 30 is ok too.
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SILVER dropped and recovered for some reason. It broke below consolidation lows and then buyers pushed it higher, so Gold dropped over $15 and Silver closed Green. Odd.
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GDX followed Gold and exaggerated the dip. This lost the 50% retrace line, but the 61.8% fib level is equal to the left shoulder, so we may see that. Unfortunately with Miners, anything can happen. The good news is that several Miners are reporting favorable earnings reports, so over time that should help. Last night…
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Last night KGC Released a positive earnings report. It was only up 1% after hrs, so it may not get a great reaction, but it is good to see these reports coming out strong rather than weak.
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KGC dropped and started to lose that 20ema that I was watching. I didn’t sell, because I think that it may just drop to the 34 & 50sma area. I hate that last Fridays surge looks like a false move now, and now we are enduring this choppy mess. 🙁 That said, KGC is one Miner that I was just going to buy and hold, so that is what I am doing so far. The rally out of the low was awesome, the chop is boring and frustrating.
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FSM released earnings yesterday and it gapped open in a strong manner, but as you can see, it couldn’t resist the selling as the day went on. That means that the positive release for KGC may not help to hold it up today too, but these will be buy the dip candidates when Gold and Silver reverse higher.
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So we are still seeing the General Markets push higher, but it is reaching resistance and a pullback to the 50sma may take place, we’ll see. Oil failed on the drop, so now it is due for a dcl, but the next one appears to be a weak one too. The USD is putting in a slight bounce, but it should roll over and Gold & Silver should move higher. Today we’ll see jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, and Powell speaks at 2 p.m. We’ll see how the markets react to these events. Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I WROTE ABOUT BITCOINS BULLISH SET UP: I WROTE…
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RUNNING CORRECTIONS – This is where price chops higher in a tight formation and it is often bullish. It can resolve with a blast higher, so I wanted to post an example of one here. Read the chart. Each time it tries to sell off, it closes slightly higher and higher.
RUNNING CORRECTION BREAKOUT – I have seen these many times, and often (not always, but most often) They suddenly surge higher as the Bulls take control, price breaks higher, and all of the shorts have to cover. Why am I showing this?
BITCOIN – I am starting to wonder if Bitcoins chop is slowly becoming a running correction? If it is it could surge higher and then put in a higher dcl when it dips later in the move. I will say that Crypto Miners are still near the lows, and some do have a higher low in place, but it is such a tricky development. They are NOT running strongly higher like one would expect with Bitcoin WELL OFF OF THE LOWS.
BITCOIN is breaking out, but MARA And RIOT were both down 7% yesterday?? So again, this is very odd, but we may see those crypto stocks react favorably today, and will this give them higher lows and some bullish follow through? I will be watching. So far the disconnect has been very puzzling. Bitcoin is making new highs with a strong rally, Crypto stocks are ignoring it.
