Weekend Report October 7th – Arrivals
When it comes to looking for an ICL, in both The General Markets and The Precious Metals Sector, I think that we all know what I have been looking for, since it has been repeated very often in the last 2 weeks. For example: A swing low near day 40+ is common for the General Markets, and a swing low near day 32 for the Precious Metals is common. So with this report I just want to start by saying that I believe we have arrived at our destination, and I want to try to keep the report simple, just to help make things clear. If anything was to change along the way, it will be covered in the weekday reports, so with that in mind, let’s get to the charts! 🙂
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DAY 30 is early for a dcl in the General Markets, but we now have that, so this is what I wrote Friday and I will discuss this a bit further.
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THE SPX price shot up on Friday after the bullish jobs report.
1. We now have a swing low with a clear close above the 10sma.
2. This is a buy with a stop under the lows, and it could be the ICL too.
3. This is what we look for to get further confirmation of a low, it is a buy, but I want to show you something…
Take a look at the SPX swing low at the 200sma in March. That should have been the dcl, but it failed when the banks failed, and sold off for another week. This is extremely uncommon or rare, but it shows that events can alter things short term. Israel was attacked and is now at war this weekend. Will that hurt this swing low? It might simply because it was an early swing low at day 30, so please use a stop.
SPX WEEKLY– Again, this is the area that many ICls reverse at. In technical analysis, the 30 week ma often acts as support, so we could have that ICL forming right here.
NASDAQ DAILY– The daily on the Nasdaq was impressive too. We have a swing low and a very clear close over the 10sma. This should be an ICL, but notice that this daily cycle bottomed 8 days ago! That would mean that this was a day 25 DCL in the Nasdaq? This looks legit, but in the back of my mind I will have doubts until it gets above the upper trend line. It is still a buy, but it is a bit suspicious.
NASDAQ DAILY in March 2023– The Nasdaq did the same thing when it formed a dcl at the 200sma, broke above the 10sma, formed a downtrend point and then rolled over and failed as the Banks collapsed. It formed a shake out.
THE NASDAQ WEEKLY shows that price was bouncing off of that 30 week ma and reversed higher. This is a bullish buy with a stop.
WTIC WEEKLY– Oil crashed down 10% last week. I really wouldn’t go short or long now that we got such a strong move. It could bounce & drop (that might be short-able) or it may drop further immediately. This needs time to clarify the big picture.
USD WEEKLY– After a long 12 week run higher, we have a topping candle on the USD. The USD is due to drop into a dcl and it could possibly…
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The USD is due to drop into a dcl and it could possibly even top and start a longer decline, with 2 more daily cycle bouncing lower into an ICL. THAT helps Gold.
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USD 3 YEAR CYCLE – When I look at this chart, I see VERY RELIABLE 3 Yr Cycle Lows. With the Fed intervention and multiple large rate hikes however, I have been saying that we MIGHT have put in an early 3 yr cycle low (6 months premature). Notice that the USD broke above that upper thin blue area. That looks additionally bullish. A back test to that area or the pink area could be a dip down into an ICL over time.
GOLD DAILY– I’ve been watching for that day 32 dcl (give or take a few days) to form.
1. With Fridays jobs report, Gold sold down to a new low on Friday that then reversed higher. We have a strong reversal candle on day 34.
2. Note: Israel was attacked and is now at war this weekend. Another war. That could be the catalyst that send this much higher Monday and in the weeks to come.
THE GOLD WEEKLY CHART shows a nice reversal candle that bounced off of the 200 week ma. We can easily form a weekly swing low if price just rises $20 next week. Gold actually bottomed at the very end of February, so this should be the next ICL, coming 7 months after that late Feb ICL. 6 to 7 months from ICL to ICL is perfect timing really.
SILVER has a LARGE weekly reversal candle. In March it lost the 200 week ma as a shakeout, and we most likely will be seeing that again.
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SILVER has formed that big reversal candle 7 months after the last ICL, and 6-7 months is perfect timing.
GDX has a swing low that formed on Thursday, and it also had some follow through higher on Friday. This should be day 2 and is a buy ( just use a stop). This could move fairly quickly to that downtrend line.
THE GDX WEEKLY has a solid reversal candle. Since GDX closed near the highs on Friday, it only needs 21 cents to form a weekly swing low too. This should be the next ICL, coming in 7 months after the March ICL.
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We have been waiting patiently, just watching the ‘time’ go buy over the past couple of weeks for the ‘timing’ of a deep meaningful low to arrive (ICL). The selling certainly picked up with Gold during those 2 weeks as we saw a waterfall sell off down into what appears to be a capitulation low.
The lowest low came in on Friday and that reversal candle is a strong buy with a stop right under that low. That is an easy way to reduce risk as we enter for maximum returns over the next few weeks an hopefully months. I look forward to seeing how next week plays out too, since it could include short covering as well as buying. For the first time in a couple of weeks, things look very promising. Yay! Enjoy your weekend my friends!
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~ALEX
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By Request: ‘What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?’ This is my thought…
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Bitcoin put in a low 4 weeks ago, and Bitcoin has rallied higher from there for 4 weeks in September into October.
As this rally unfolded, Mara was cut in half! What?? Yes, it went from $14 to $7 during that rally. And RIOT, MARA, HUT, CIFR, HIVE, CLSK, etc, etc, all fell to new lows this week too. They are losing big time during a Bitcoin rally, and that just doesn’t make sense. Or does it?…
I am thinking that maybe smart money buyers aren’t stepping in because they know a dip is coming due in Bitcoin after this push higher? An ICL is coming due, as seen on my chart.
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If that is not the case, MAYBE MARA, RIOT, etc simply sold off with the General Markets? Maybe, but they did not do that during the past General Markets sell offs, so all I can say is this: I may ‘trade’ crypto stocks if they bounce short term, but I think that a MAJOR ICL BUY is coming at the end of the year or start of 2024.
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There are small bounces in these charts, but they have not had follow through even though Bitcoin did. I am wondering if they will just start to base out over the next couple of months, as shown below?
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So I personally think that a MAJOR ICL BUY is coming at the end of the year or start of 2024, and there is more to it than just an ICL I have studied the charts of past time periods like this and it shows me that 1 more dip comes next and then a larger rally in 2024. I DO NOT WANT TO MISS THAT, and will be writing about it when the time comes, but for now I have seen carnage during a Bitcoin rally and have not been covering it as much. Up until now, I have had no interest in Crypto stocks …yet.
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