Tuesday October 31st : Pre-Fed Choppiness
.
This is a list of the economic data being released this week. As you can see, we have the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday, so it wouldn’t surprise me if we have a choppy or neutral Tuesday, but we’ll see.
.
SPX – I’m showing the SPX as being on day 19 of a new daily cycle, with a day 18 low. We do remember, however, that we had a day 30 low at the blue arrow and that is often too short to be a dcl. If that was not a dcl, then what we have is a day 48 low where the 18 is. THAT day 48 would possibly be the time for that dcl/ICL. At this point we have a swing low in place but need to wait for a move above the 10sma.
.
The NASDAQ is very similar, except that it lost the 200sma and is already trying to regain it. It also bounced where the lower trendline would be. We have the Fed tomorrow, so expect volatility.
.
WTIC – I have also been using cycle counts to predict that Oils push higher out of day 31 recently was not real. We are Now in the proper timing for a dcl to form, so a dip to the 200sma and a reversal is likely going to be the dcl.
.
The USD on September 29. I used this chart to say that I thought the USD would churn sideways, since it has done that during bull market runs in the past. I expected the USD to likely top out in a choppy sideways manner.
The USD has basically been churning sideways, and this is what I called for as a possible topping process. We’ll see what happens after the Fed Mtg Wednesday, since interest rate decisions can affect the USD.
.
GOLD is still holding above the 10sma. It appears to be on day 17 and since tomorrow is the Fed Mtg, day 18 will be the one to really watch. Fed days are always choppy and volatile intraday.
.
SILVER is on day 18 and has been choppy as it churns along under the green 200sma. It is also above the 10 & 50sma, but Monday was a pop and drop. This seems to be a pause in a move higher out of the ICL.
.
GDX opened a little higher on Monday, but sold off as the day moved forward. Again, we are in a Fed Week and volatility is common until the Fed decision & speech is behind us. So far the GDX remains above the 50sma.
.
So on Monday we had a mix of green and red Miners. For example:
.
HL dropped to the 50 & 200sma and that acted as support, so price bounced back up. I posted this 2 hrs after trading began, but it did close at this price too.
.
NGD released earnings last week and I posted this bullish response on Thursday.
…and NGD has moved higher each day since then, so it was also up on Monday. I posted this midday, but it also closed at this price.
.
This is a good looking chart to me, as one of the smaller explorer companies. OCGSF is starting to see an increase in volume and it bounced off of the 50sma last week. I think that this may be a good place to accumulate a little if you are looking for a smaller company that we call ‘lottery tickets’. These can run later and double, triple, etc.
.
SA went from red to green and I posted this midday too. It held price above the 50sma into the close, so Seabridge Gold may be starting to show signs of life.
.
GFI This was GFI dropping and bouncing off of support.
GFI This shows that it may drop there again, and that could be a buy again if it holds up.
.
It’s always difficult to trade on the day before the Fed Mtg and even on the day of the Fed Decision. If you bought a basket at the lows and you are still holding on, there isn’t much to do. If you were looking to add on a dip or pause, this may be the time to do that, but you can also wait for the Fed Decision to allow that volatility to pass first. Oil is coming due for a dcl and the time is right as price is dropping to the 200sma, and the General Markets are still unclear, simply based on that early timing on the day 30 swing low. Was that a dcl and now we are only on day 18 of maybe 35 days plus? Or was that day 30 swing low just a normal dip that continued into a day 48 daily cycle now? We won’t know until price shows continuation higher or lower, and that will also likely be after the Fed Decision on a rate hike is made known. What that means is that we will likely see choppiness or volatility as we head into the Fed & on Fed Day. I’d like to say ‘enjoy your Tuesday trading’, but choppiness is never really fun. We do also, on rare occasion, see Gold & Miners just take off higher in anticipation of the Fed Decision, so we’ll just have to see ow the day unfolds. My you enjoy your Tuesday activities!
.
~ALEX
.
I admit that bitcoin looks like a bullish pennant, but it is also getting late in the daily cycle, so I am expecting a pullback soon. That means that we may see a breakout and then a pullback shortly after, or it may just not break out higher from here. The main takeaway for most traders here is that even with this nice multi week rally, Crypto Stocks are not following. Crypto stocks are near the lows, but they do look to be setting up bullishly. I do see divergence at the lows. I have been pointing this out for weeks now, to offer the cautious side. I know that traders keep buying the pops and getting cut up on the drops. I personally think that it is best to avoid this area until we see some real price action and that may be after bitcoin dips into a dcl.
.
URA – Uranium stocks are doing what they do best–chopping sideways in a consolidation. They do have great runs higher once they decide to break out and go, but for now they are a little frustrating if you did a buy and hold at the 50sma. These do remain bullish set ups though. They are actually a buy again at the 50sma.
