Tuesday October 17th
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SPX held up after the tag of the 10sma (or 9), so this appears to be day 9. If you had raised your stop to the 10sma, you’re still in the trade, and if we can break out above the 50sma, you can raise your stop up under there.
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WTIC – Oil is tagging the underside of the 34 sma and it could break out & run, but I have been wondering if that day 30 low was too early to be a dcl for Oil. That means that we could get another final drop to form an a-b-c as shown, but Oil stocks do appear to be moving out of their lows.
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As mentioned in earlier reports, The Oil stocks (XOP) bottomed before Oil in the past and looked to have bottomed 8 days ago too. So far the follow through confirms this.
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This is MRO for example.
It has moved straight up out of the lows and broke out to new highs as one of the leaders. Others that I have mentioned are starting to do the same. APA, NOG, CPE, ERF, VET, etc are all approaching recent highs. VLO is lagging, sitting right on the 200sma.
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The USD dipped lower and that may be a dcl for the USD. If so, this could be day 2 or 3 and it may just start forming a choppy top and eventually roll over into a lower 3rd daily cycle low. The MACD (so far anyway) is looking a bit weaker when it pushed higher.
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GOLD paused on Monday, day 6. I mentioned that this was a good possibility. This is multiple areas of resistance and supply demand, so it is also possible that it could drop and climb lower along the 50sma as a back test and offer a buying opportunity in Miners if they follow. So…
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So the XYZ represents what price could do if it stalls and crawls along the downtrend and 50sma. I would then expect a strong break out higher.
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Here I am pointing out again how GOLD paused for only 1 day and then pushed higher after the last ICL. Also…
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In the past 2 ICLs, GOLD paused for only 1 day and then pushed higher, so we’ll really just have to wait and see how things play out, but the overall picture is very Bullish for Gold, with an ICL in place and Monday only being day 6.
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SILVER also paused under the downtrend line and 50sma. It also remains a bullish set up.
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GDX was actually green, despite the dip in both Gold and Silver, and it closed above the 50sma & the downtrend for the 2nd day. The RSI is almost at 59 and price is above the 50sma.
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REMINDER: IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I MENTIONED NEM AS ONE TO WATCH:
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NEM WEEKLY -Newmont & Barrick are a big part of the GDX and to be honest, they are still at the lows and are just now starting to get going. We made Excellent gains on HMY, GFI, AU, etc, but now some of the other Miners look ready to go higher and push GDX up along with it. Newmont traded at $80 last year.
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NEM was green with Gold & Silver down yesterday too. Some accumulation may be taking place and again, when Gold & Silver move higher, I think that the Miners will respond nicely, so we are in ‘Buy the dip’ mode.
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So Miners were slightly green with Gold & Silver down on Monday and if we just have a 1 day pause and continue higher, then I would expect the Miners to move higher too and add to current gains. We Will just have to wait and see how exactly this plays out, but for now we have a very bullish set up and the surprises should come to the upside. I’m going to discuss a little more below, enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN began to rise yesterday very quickly pre-market, so I captured this to show those following along in the live commenting area. Crypto st0cks started to rise steadily too.
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Then BITCOIN actually shot up 3000 points and dropped (pop & drop at this point) and the Crypto sticks also did a pop and drop, but then some started to come back. I always say that I use 30 & 60 days (roughly) to find lows and they can be dcls and 1/2 cycle lows. Well, If you were to count the days from the last low to the higher low …
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If you were to count the days from the last low to the higher low last week we had 30 days. I was not expecting an ICL until late November or December, and THAT was going to be a major buy, so at this point I do not own crypto stocks, but now I am watching this area closely to see how crypto stocks act. Yesterday some moved up nicely, but MARA and RIOT actually didn’t. So…
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Both RIOT and MARA did a pop and drop, but they had BIG volume. I was expecting a deeper fall into Nov and Dec as an ICL sell off, and we still may bounce and then drop deeper, but I do see MACD divergence. I am watching to see if these are bottoming a little earlier than Bitcoin? So far yesterday was a Pop & Drop for some like RIOT & MARA, but…
CIFR stopped at the 200sma and crawled sideways recently. It also popped and stayed up 12%. HIVE, CLSK, HUT, etc Popped, dropped, and closed up at midpoint, so I am going to study this area too. Right now tis was only a one day event and too early to know for sure. Timing wise Bitcoin should bounce and drop again into an ICL in my opinion.
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I have been pointing out the leading Gold stocks like HMY, GFI, AU, etc as making great gains, but others started to play catch up too. Take MUX for example:
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MUX was at the lows jut 7 days ago, but it has quickly moved from $6 to $8 and other Gold stocks are doing the same, but what about those Silver Miners? They are lagging and are still at the lows, can they quickly make some gains too?
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I do think that Silver stocks will eventually beging to run quickly higher, and some have probably started on that journey already too.
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So with AG, we saw a big surge on Friday and a pause on Monday, but it didn’t sell off with Silver down. So I am holding and watching Silver stocks daily as possible ‘laggers’ that may start to give us good gains. This looks like a ‘shake out’ in the making.
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I SAID THIS:
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AG – I’ll be watching other Silver Miners next week too. AG, FSM, EXK, etc are still near the lows and may be able to put in some gains with a breakout and run too.
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Here we see that AG is forming the same wedge. I know that these should be much higher already, but after seeing CDE & HL put in 14% for no apparent reason, I’m beginning to think that the rest may follow.
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EXK is lagging and is still right at the lows too, but if you had some extra money to put on it and keep an eye on it, we might find it starting to play catch up over time too. It is trying to get above that resistance of the 20 ema. In July it took off once it got through that point, and that was a dcl, this is an ICL.
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On OCT 3 I pointed out NGD as a Gold Miner that was still at the lows and looked ready to play catch up…
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NGD paused for 1 day after that OCT 3 pop, and then rallied higher. It is now crawling under the 200sma and I thought that it was VERY ODD last Friday when Gold surged $60 and NGD dropped to the 20 ema. VERY ODD. Well, thankfully on Monday NGD was up 6% at one point and continues to just crawl under resistance, but it does look like it will break out over time.
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PLG is Platinum, but it does look to be ‘bottoming’ too, and it was up 5.56% in the final hour of trading.
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NAK has been doing very well, actually, and this is quite a bullish set up, but there are risks here. We all know NAK right? They own property with a boat load of precious metals in Alaska, but they also have had a hard time getting permits to start drilling. There is also the risk of possibly needing to raise money with a dreaded public offering, so we need to be cautious, but this is a buy set up. I would only go small to start if someone wanted to risk it.
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AUMN – Finally another risky one. AUMN is risky, they may also need to raise money, but it did Pop in a big way last week. At the time of an ICL, it may be able to push higher and continue higher, rather than just Pop % Drop. Again, this is risky if they need to raise money and your more stable Miners would be bigger ones…
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Your more stable Miners would be bigger ones that have enough cash on hand and do not usually need to do a public offering. Miners like NEM, Barrick, AEM, AU, RGLD, and so on, but they often do make less gains %-wise.
