Tuesday October 10th – So Far, So good
FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT:
THE SPX price shot up on Friday after the bullish jobs report.
1. We now have a swing low with a clear close above the 10sma.
2. This is a buy with a stop under the lows, and it could be the ICL too.
3. This is what we look for to get further confirmation of a low, it is a buy, (but the cycle count is a bit low at day 30).
The futures were down quite a bit on Monday morning with the attack on Israel over the weekend. I thought that the attack would help Oil and Gold, but the markets could have gone either way.
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Well, The SPX gapped down and opened right about at the 10sma, and then it moved higher as the day went on. This still looks like the lows are in place.
THE NASDAQ bottomed ahead of the SPX, and it has a low on day 27. This is VERY early, considering that lows often come in around day 40. I don’t know what to think about that, but at this point it was a buy and does have follow through. I would raise stops to the 10sma at this point and eventually up and under the 50sma if price gets above it. That will automatically lock in profits.
WTIC – Oil was in the middle of a sell off, and Oils daily cycles often run 45-50 plus days. Here we are with a strong reversal at day 32, due to a world event. These can be short term moves, knee jerk reactions and then turn into a choppy period, but the Oil stocks took off higher and looked pretty convincing.
THE XOP ran up to the 50sma, so we’ll see if it can continue to move higher, or is that 50sma going to cap the move? The volume was quite strong in Oil stocks.
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THE USD popped and dropped during the day. The MACD crossed down and it is due for a dcl. A dcl COULD form here, but it can also drop lower.
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This is what I said about Gold in my last report.
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GOLD DAILY– I’ve been watching for that day 32 dcl (give or take a few days) to form.
1. With Fridays jobs report, Gold sold down to a new low on Friday that then reversed higher. We have a strong reversal candle on day 34.
2. Note: Israel was attacked and is now at war this weekend. Another war. That could be the catalyst that send this much higher Monday and in the weeks to come.
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Gold did end up ripping higher on Monday. We had a day 34 low, and it was a solid reversal candle with the Jobs report Friday, and now we have a strong follow though day on Monday. Today is day 2, but as of this chart on Monday it was really only day 1, which is the first follow through day.
SILVER bottomed earlier than Gold last week and was able to close above the 10sma on Monday, so that should be day 4 for Silver.
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GDX 9:47 a.m.: After the open, GDX had gapped up & paused, so I wanted to show that we could possibly drop down to the 10sma and close that gap if this was not a ‘GAP & GO’. This chart was captured at 9:47 am, so did that gap close?…
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GDX moved a little bit higher, so it may just gap and go, continuing higher with out a gap fill. I have drawn both of the possible future scenarios on this chart. A gap fill or a ‘gap & go’ where it runs higher and leaves that gap open.
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NEM – When I think of GDX, I often just take a quick look at Newmont & Barrick, since they are larger components of the GDX ETF. Barrick was up but Newmont dropped to red. This is why I still have a gap fill for GDX on the table. NEM is not acting weak, it just ran up from $34.80 to $38.14 over the last 4 days, so a rest is not uncommon.
Most of the Miners were green though, and I saw a few standout miners too, like SSVRF. It popped almost 17% on Monday and even pushed above the 50sma on day 2 off of the bottom.
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AU was also impressive when it gapped open and ran up 9% to the 50sma by the final hour, so I posted this in the commenting area. It did not breakout however, it pulled back a bit into the close and closed up over 7%. I think that it is a buy if it pulls back or not. It may crawl along the 50sma & then break out.
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The lows do seem to be in place at this point in the General Markets and Gold, Silver, and the Miners. It seems like lows formed in Oil and Oil stocks, but I have my doubts. It just seems way too early for Oil, so that may be a knee-jerk reaction to the news, but the break higher was a large one that looks convincing. The Oil stocks themselves may have a low, because if you remember correctly, they DID bottom way before Oil on the first run out of the lows in May. In any of these sectors, you can use stops and raise stops along the way at the appropriate time. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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