Tuesday September 26th – DCLs

A few sectors are ready to seek out their DCLs. These are dips that can lead to buying opportunities, so we will discuss that in this report.

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SPX – The general markets put in a reversal on day 25. Is that a dcl? It just seems too early, and sometimes these daily cycles have lasted for 40+ days, so I would say we do not have a dcl. We may see a bounce as a 1/2 cycle low, to fill that overhead gap and then continue lower in my opinion.

The NASDAQ has the same set up, so I would have to say that we get a small bounce and then roll over again. This could be similar to that reversal and small bounce in early September.

WTIC – Oil has been choppy and in that first run it only dropped to the green 13 sma. It may do that here, or it may pull back more than that, we really just can’t tell what the ‘wiggles’ will be, but Oil has been strong after putting in that choppy bottom. Please read the chart.

Speaking of strong, The USD did break above that prior high in March. I am starting to think that we already saw that 3 yr cycle low, and it may have come in 6 months early. Even if it is, Gold, Silver, and the Miners seem to be ignoring it and setting up bullishly in their own way. As I have mentioned, The USD has moved higher for 10 straight weeks and Gold has NOT dropped for 10 straight weeks. The USD will eventually have to pull back and Gold will likely rally at that time.

GOLD dipped down a little on what is day 26 of the daily cycle. These daily cycles often last 32 days (roughly), and that would fall on next Tuesday, so this may just be a choppy week. A bullish triangle or wedge seems to be forming here. If Gold breaks the lows of June, we would be seeing an ICL form 7 months after the March ICL, and that is very normal. If…

GOLD -If Gold remains above the lower trend line, then it is likely that Gold put in an ICL in late June and this is just a choppy bottom. I think that this is less likely, so we should expect Gold to break to a new low and then reverse higher. Please read the chart.

SILVER dropped too.

The GDX ETF is showing that some Miners are leading Gold or are stronger than gold, because it looks to have an ICL. Why? This is due to the fact that The GDX has made a slightly higher high and gives us a right translated daily cycle so far. If that is the case, then the GDX actually should put in a higher low next.  That may be why some Gold stocks are bullishly aligned already. For example…

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HMY has already broken above its 4 month downtrend, recovered the 50& 200sma, and remained bullish during this sell off. It can drop down and test that downtrend line and reach oversold and still be fine. It also may just hold up above this 200sma area.

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AU reversed at the 13 & 20sma and is crawling along under the 50sma. It may chop and drop this week while Gold, Silver, and the Miners seek out the dcl, but it is does look to be doing a bullish crawl.

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So some Miners are resisting the selling, and we all know that Miners usually drop FAST during a drop into a dcl or especially an ICL, with the USD rising. Miners seem to just be a little choppy at the lows.

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Do you remember when Uranium Stocks were extremely choppy at the lows? They were frustrating and very hard to put up with, but they are surely making up for that now with a nice rally out of the lows.

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URG rallied out of the lows. Many of these dipped last week to the 13 sma and reversed on Friday as a ‘buy the dip’ set up. Where might this be running too?…

URG seems to be running to prior 2022 highs. After an EXTREMELY choppy period, they are now putting in more of a smooth rally.

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UEC reversed at the 13 or 20 sma too, after a small dip. As mentioned, these may be running to 2022 highs, so you can check your charts of UUUU, DNN, NXE, LEU, CCJ, URG, UEC, etc., if you want to buy & hold one or 2 of these after that dip.

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I am not really trading this week and that is obviously partly because I am away on vacation, but at the same time, we are in the last part of a daily cycle in the General Markets and in Gold & the Miners. This is when even bullish looking set ups can get caught up in a sector sell down and move lower. Toward the end of the week we might see some buy set ups developing, but with Gold on day 27 Tuesday, we should expect chop and a drop into roughly day 32. Uraniums and MJ stocks seem to have pushed higher, so that may be a couple of sectors to monitor as a trader or shorter term scalper, but just be aware of General Market cycle timing and realize that even some bullish set ups may weaken. One of the best set ups that I see out there remains to be GRPN. Even CVNA, TSLA, GOOG and others started dip lower.  Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

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I have been mentioning GRPN as a buy candidate for a long time, ever since it put in that good earnings report. It seems to just be chopping sideways and forming a bullish triangle during the Market sell off.

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Other bullish stocks like TSLA, GOOG, FUBO, etc have been pulling back a bit more, but that may lead to a good entry at the dcl. For example TSLA put in a reversal, but if the general markets are going to simply bounce for a couple of days & then dip further, I would expect that TSLA will do the same.  It may end up at the 200sma, as drawn here. So keep your watch list out and watch as the markets pull back. This possible pullback to a support area is what is meant by the term…. ‘Buy the dip’ opportunity.