Friday August 18th – Catch That Dip?
Catching that Dip requires waiting for a swing low that is confirmed. We may be there in the precious metals, but patience for 1 more day will not hurt anyone- the choice is yours. Lets review the markets and then discuss the Precious Metals swing low that may be forming pre-market. 🙂
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I have been expecting the dip into a dcl to be a bit deeper and then another daily cycle may drop even deeper to give us the ICL. Here we see that The SPX dropped 33 points yesterday.
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So we could see The SPX drop into a dcl (I’ll guess to the 38% retrace), bounce up into a L.T. Daily Cycle, and then drop into the ICL near $4200? That would be the 50% fib line. That bounce should be short-able too.
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THE NASDAQ actually now has a failed daily cycle by trading under the dcl. That was to be expected as we will be dropping down into the next ICL.
WTIC – Oil bounced yesterday, but I am expecting a pullback. The MACD already crossed down and we aren’t oversold, so I’m watching that double support area of the 50 & 200 sma as a possible landing spot.
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The USD: I just wanted to show you that on the past ‘tops’ or ‘peaks’, it was not exactly a 1 day tip top & plunge lower, it was more of a choppy topping process, and we may be seeing that here too.
GOLD live at 6:30 am et Friday: We are due for a dcl (ICL?).
I am using the 7sma and you can see that Gold has been unable to rise above that moving average. When I see that kind of a tight day after day drop, I am more likely to call a swing low on a close above the 7 sma. This morning Gold is trying to rise, but I think you’ll be happier when we look at Silver. SILVER MAY BE LEADING THE WAY.
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SILVER – This morning we have a swing low and it just traded over the 10 sma (That is the 10sma on Silver). THIS LOOKS LIKE THE LOW, WE JUST NEED MINERS TO MOVE HIGHER. I added my AG position back to full position yesterday.
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I also wanted to point out to you that Silver put in a choppy low in June, but then Rocketed higher about 2 weeks later, so even though it has been selling off relentlessly it CAN do the same thing on the way up.
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GDX – Hey listen, The Miners are just relentlessly dropping into the March lows and I hate that too! I really do, but when we get a swing low in Gold & Silver, I would expect Miners to reverse, have some short covering, and make a nice run higher.
 We just filled that March Gap and I hope that we get a strong rally higher similar to that march run next 🙂 Price never traded under the 8ema back then, and that is a nice strong vertical move. We could see that again, since this really looks like the next ICL.
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Today is Friday, the last trading day of the week. The General Markets are not able to be predicted day by day now, because their daily cycle can be 40-50 days long, and we are on day 36. A dcl CAN form anytime now, but it might not form for another week or 2. I think that the next bounce should be shortable too, as we drop into an ICL in September. If you shorted this move with SQQQ, SPXS, SOXS – close those with a move back above the 10sma at the latest. Oil should still pull back further over time. The USD may be topping here. I see a swing low in SILVER this morning, so we may be bottoming in precious metals. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BUY THE EXACT LOW. You can wait until next week and you will find many Miners still lagging at the lows, and it is a safer buy to wait for GDX to trade above the 10sma ( or 8ema).
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Have a great weekend and Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I DISCUSSED A NEW LOW NEAR DAY 60 AS SOMETHING THAT I WAS WATCHING FOR: I SAID…
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BITCOIN actually dropped quickly and recovered on Wednesday night, day 62. This could very well be the final low that I have been watching for, but we need to watch for buyers first. If Crypto stocks like MARA, RIOT, WULF, etc pop back above the 50sma, that will be similar to wat they have done in the past consolidations. A shake out type of a move.
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Crypto stocks like MARA, RIOT, WULF, etc actually sold off all day yesterday, so it was as though they saw this coming. That low yesterday continued overnight (Still day 62).
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BITCOIN plunged on day 62 and now on Friday morning, we see a small dip lower and a possible wick. It will take time to know if this is the next low that I have been waiting for, but let me tell you this. MARA & RIOT are trading at $11.40 this a.m. in pre-market, down from $20+. THESE ARE NOT FOR EVERYONE, since they can gain and lose money in a big way. That said, if the lows are in & we get another bull run, they can return to over $20. BE CAREFUL!
