Tuesday August 8th
I have been expecting a pullback and we started that dip last week. S0 far The NASDAQ is riding on the 34 sma on day 29. IF THIS REGAINS the 10sma on day 30, we really need to respect that strength and this could continue higher and dip later as a 40-50 day long daily cycle. IF it tags the 10sma and dips lower, I think that it can be shorted on day 30 with a possible 40+ more days lower.
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AS A REMINDER FOR THE NASDAQ WEEKLY :
The Nasdaq used to dip down and tag that 30 week ma (red line) as an ICL, so I drew that here as an example of what we should expect over the next couple of weeks. That said, these are bull markets and can surprise to the upside if buyers flood in, so if they regain the 10sma on a daily chart, I want to respect that and use that as a stop on shorting.
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AGAIN FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT: We had a decent dip last week. I wrote…
SPX WEEKLY – The General Markets were down this week, and I have been expecting a drop into a dcl and possibly even an ICL due to Overly bullish sentiment, Cycle timing, and a few other factors. What I have drawn here is the idea of a drop into a dcl, a new daily cycle (bounce) that rolls over as left translated into a new low ( ICL September?) at that trendline. Similar to the drop Jan to March.
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So finally,
1. We are around day 30 and we could just continue to chop and drop lower into a dcl over time, sentiment was at highs not seen in over a year, but also
2. We do have time to see a bounce and some choppy topping and then drop too. So I may go short with a rejection at the 10sma, but closing above that on SPX or NASDAQ will be my stop.
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WTIC – Oil is still at a resistance level, so it dipped a little on Monday. Oil stocks (VLO, APA, ERF, XOP, and others were actually Green).
From The Weekend Report:
This chart would have the USD at the next resistance area and peak.
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THE USD did a small pop and drop on Monday. It can just bounce around here for a couple more days, we’ll see, but I don’t really want to see it trade above 103.
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GOLD had a sideways day and is on day 27. I would have to expect a dip lower into a dcl and then a recovery. Yes, we can see shorter daily cycles in Bull markets, so we would want to be alert if we see a push higher from here, but Silver actually dropped sharply on Monday and we have Inflation Info being released Thursday and Friday, so we could see lack luster action on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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SILVER is pinched between the 50 & 200sma, and it dropped right to the 200sma on Monday, day 30. As mentioned above, I don’t see any real market moving News or Data being released until Thursday & Friday with the CPI & PPI Inflation Numbers, so we may be choppy until then. This also could pull a shakeout move too. The good news? Silver stocks hardly dropped.
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SILVER WEEKLY FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT – Silver is still well above the ICL and a dcl could form at any time.
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GDX dipped and climbed back at the end of the day.
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With Silvers 2% drop, I wanted to just show a couple of Silver stocks…
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AG dropped and started to recover, so with Silver down over 2 %, AG was down 10 cents at the close.
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EXK also dropped and started to bounce back, so it closed down 8 cents with Silver down 2%.
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SSRM was only down 6 cents when Silver dropped over 2%.
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And some Gold stocks are doing better than others too.
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KGC is above the 50sma after earnings for example. This highlights the fact that Miners can cause some pain when they drop, but they also can recover very quickly, in days actually, once they get moving to the upside again.
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Well, it will be interesting to see what the General Markets do , now that they started to sell down last week. Oil is Bullish, but it has paused temporarily. With Gold & Silver, the timing is getting closer for a dcl, but we really aren’t ‘due’ quite yet, unless we get a somewhat early dcl. We’ll have to try to be patient and see how it plays out heading into Thursday & Fridays inflation numbers. THAT might be a good catalyst for a turnaround. Pullbacks and choppiness can be a bit boring on a day to day basis.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
