Weekend Review July 2
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ON FRIDAY I SAID:
THE SPX closed clearly above that 10sma and this does look to be day 3 after a dcl. If it rolled over and dropped below the 10sma, it probably wouldn’t stay down there for long.
On Friday, THE SPX DAILY gapped open and pushed to new highs, so we do label that as a DCL and this has new highs at day 4.
SPX WEEKLY has reached new 14 month highs with that new daily cycle high. This is only day 4, so obviously the markets are set up to go higher. Lets take a look at the bigger picture next and discuss some possibilities.
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SPX WEELY – With the big picture view we see that the bull run that I had been forecasting since 2022 is taking place. We based out after a 1 year bear market, broke the downtrend line, and now we are running away. I would normally expect a run back to the highs & we very well could see that, but let’s briefly cover short term & long term.
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I want to explain something important here:
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I would personally continue to recommend riding this new daily cycle with a trailing stop as price runs higher. Why a trailing stop? This is the 4th daily cycle and it MIGHT peak as Left Translated and then pull back in a week or two. Sometimes we get 4-5 daily cycles from ICL to ICL, and we just started daily cycle 4, so that could be where we are now.
1. This may run up for a week or 2 as shown and peak much higher, and then sell off into an ICL for August, with a 4th & 5th daily cycle, OR…
2. This could peak rather early and lower as a very L.T. daily cycle. It would then get choppy and start to roll over sooner than later.
3. I also want to mention the strongest version of what could happen…
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SPX WEELY – We did see STRONG bull runs in the 2020-2021 moves higher. This chart shows very strong daily cycles just running higher and the eventual ICLs are just a quick sell off or dip. Look at the Blue Box and the Red Box for the examples. We could always repeat this runaway type of move, and that is why I said that I personally would use a ‘trailing stop’. This could run away if the USD rolls over.
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WTIC WEEKLY– Oil has been choppy, but is tightening up in an APEX. It is constantly holding support at the 200 week ma and looks to be forming the end of a bull wedge. A breakout higher is Bullish and oil stocks turned bullish this week (noted in Thursday and Fridays report).
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A breakout from this downtrend higher is Bullish and oil stocks turned bullish this week noted on this chart on Fridays report. I mentioned that the 200 sma may act as resistance, so a tag of that and a pullback may offer an entry too.
USD WEEKLY – The USD was riding higher this week, but it did hit resistance at the downtrend and 30 week ma. I also noted that as the USD rose this week, Gold didn’t really drop like it used to. Is this going to roll over? If it does, Gold may take off.
??? Is the USD trapped here and will it be held down? Next week will let us know.
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I have been watching The COT for weeks and I hate that with Golds recent selling, it has not improved very much. I have marked past COT Readings when Gold sold off to ICL levels in October and March, and we are not even close to those levels. This may indicate that we will bounce out of a dcl, and then sell off to the final lows in July. Let’s look at Gold…
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Friday I pointed out Golds daily reversal this way:
GOLD dropped and put in a reversal candle with that push higher in the USD. Gold is not dropping the way one would expect with the USD rising. Notice the lower trend line too.
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GOLD DAILY – It was nice to see GOLD move higher again with the USD rising. This is only day 22, so is this a 1/2 cycle low and then it rolls over again? That may be what we have here, I’ll monitor it is it moves higher.
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GOLD WEEKLY – Gold has a weekly reversal Candle and that daily reversal shown ABOVE may only lead to a trend line back test or a run to the red 10 week ma line, as shown here. The COT seems to indicate that, and The stochastics is not fully oversold yet. 1 More daily cycle? if the USD sells off quickly though, this could take off higher.
SILVER WEEKLY – Silvers weekly has bounced slightly above the 50 week ma and here I am pointing out that the weekly stochastics is not fully oversold yet either. 1 more daily cycle? We’ll see what the USD does.
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GDX WEEKLY:
To be honest, The GDX ETF looks bullish. It reversed right at the 50week ma, a trend line, and the RSI is only slightly below the 50% mark. I have always said that you can buy these reversals and use a stop right under the lows, and see how it plays out.
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Many of these set ups remain Bullish in the big picture. We only have a 1/2 day of trading in the USD on Monday and the markets are closed on Tuesday in the US, so all we can do is see what Monday offers us. Enjoy your Monday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – This is Bitcoin as of midnight on Sunday into Monday. It remains bullish as it pushes out of the recent lows too.
