Wednesday June 21st – Eventual DCLs
SPX – After a 3 day weekend in the U.S., it looks like we picked up right where we left off. The markets gapped down and sold off in the morning, but they did start to climb back up as the day went on. That gives us a drop and a reversal candle, but also a swing high – so now we’ll see if the Bulls can push this higher. We are at day 36, so I would expect the markets to be a bit heavier as time goes on, but a bull market push can extend higher. Raise stops and we’ll see what happens, but we are due for a dcl at anytime.
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I apologize, this was supposed to be in the weekend report.
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WEAT has been breaking out from a wedge / downtrend. I noticed a volume Pop Friday (but it may have been quad witching). I was going to say to buy a dip (gap fill) or start a position and add. Weat closed up another 1% on Tuesday. I don’t usually trade these, but I know that Mark and a few others do. (Watchlist for pullback?)
XOP – Oil did not do much on Tuesday, but the XOP lost and regained the 50sma …again.
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We watched The USD sell off sharply last week (Fed Week, CCI, PPI, Jobless Claims, etc). It is bouncing right now, but it looks to be a weak bounce so far.
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GOLD dropped but it is basically in a sideways choppy move right now. This could break in either direction, but I have been expecting a dip lower from here. At this point, every bounce has simply been a bounce and only a break above that yellow 50sma would change this picture.
SILVER sold off pretty sharply on Tuesday, didn’t it? Volume also increased and the stochastics has much further to go. The RSI was rejected near 50%, so this looks like it will sell off further (as expected).
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GDX also dropped sharply on increased volume (4% drop) and is almost breaking the recent lows.
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On Friday and Tuesday, Crypto stocks responded quite bullishly to Bitcoins bounce off of the recent lows. Is it a DCL or just a bounce out of a 1/2 cycle low, like I thought? Well, yesterday Bitcoin broke the downtrend, so I want to discuss the possibilities there. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Yesterday in the early part of the day I saw Bitcoin trying to break that downtrend line. That is considered Bullish, even if it’s just short term. HUT & IREN were already up nicely, but some others like MARA and RIOT were not responding yet. I mentioned that they might play catch up and would be a good buy for a short-term trade or day scalp, since they rise up 10-15% often on a good day.
BITCOIN – Surged through that line as the day went on. Now I wanted to show that in the past strong surges breaking higher in Bitcoin can still roll over, but they are a buy and you simply use a stop. That said, COULD this be a dcl? Lets discuss Bitcoin in detail…
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This is the count that I have been using:
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BITCOIN before that break out: I use 30 & 60 day dips for 1/2 cycle and dcl, and they do seem to fit very well. SO…I saw this as a 1/2 cycle low at day 34 and a dcl at day 63. HOWEVER, you may recall that I thought that the blue day 45 might be a dcl when it first formed, because the 10sma turned up at that bounce. Let’s discuss that…
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BITCOIN – If that day 45 reversal was a dcl, we would restart the count and almost be at day 60 again with this recent low. So…
BITCOIN – That labeling would give us a dcl at day 45, a 1/2 cycle low where my day 63 was, and this could be a dcl at day 50+. To be honest, I still think that it was…
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To be honest, I still think that it was pretty a pretty clean day 63 dcl and thus a clean 1/2 cycle low as measured here, but those Cryprto stocks did rally strongly (many up 15-20% yesterday after a nice push higher Friday), so I buy and use a stop. But this raises a question to many also, and that question is…
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But this raises a question to many also, and that question is:
If that was a day 34 1/2 cycle low and we are breaking the downtrend line, how could Bitcoin drop and form a new low for the dcl? I will give you one idea…
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BITCOIN could rally into day 40+ or so, and then roll over to back test that trend line. That would give us a slightly undercut low as a dcl, as shown here. What I would do at this point though, is buy this low if you like the Crypto stocks and raise a stop just in case we roll back, but if it doesn’t, then you capture the gains.
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So yesterday I posted early in the morning that HUT & IREN were up nicely, and others might follow. I then posted Midday with this chart that MARA was red and starting to go green as that trend line broke. This would be a buy and RIOT was actually still red at this time too. Many were rising up from midday onward and could be bought for a quick trade or entry with a stop.
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MARA was up 17% by the close. If we are at a 1/2 cycle low, this could rally and then back test, if that was a dcl, this consolidation could be FINALLY finished chopping sideways and rally higher. I do want to show you something very important about the crypto stocks and these BULLISH consolidations.
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RIOT – Take a look at the strong rally after the chop finally finishes up with RIOT in the past. RIOT was held down by the 50sma yesterday, so it was ‘only’ up 8%, but it is possibly just starting to rally if it can break out here. Now let me show you something important…
RIOT & MARA were busy chopping sideways & lower and lower with Bitcoin popping and dropping, but did you notice BTBT and a few others?
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BTBT has actually been choppy yet higher during Bitcoins sell off lower. This makes me wonder if we’ll see MARA and RIOT and several others start to become accumulated whether or not bitcoin has a 1/2 cycle low in place right now, or a dcl.
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So the above BTBT chart does make me wonder if we’ll see MARA, RIOT, IREN, BITF, HUT, HIVE, CIFR, CLSK, and others start to become accumulated and in rally mode whether or not bitcoin has a 1/2 cycle low in place right now, or a dcl. I had mentioned earlier this year that these could be buy & Hold, but it is VERY difficult to do. I’ll show you what I mean with IREN.
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IREN as of last week broke below the 50sma and this looked pretty weak and ‘broken’, as bitcoin dropped into that recent low. I would have been stopped out, I’m pretty sure.
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IREN: What a difference a day makes with these, right? So Iren popped up 21%, regained the 50sma, and looks to be breaking a downtrend line too. So these are not easy Buy & Hold, but with Bitcoin putting in a major low, the eventual outcome should be gains, unless smaller companies do a public offering or miss earnings, etc.
