June 24th Weekend Review
SPX DAILY – We usually start to look for or expect a dcl around day 40 or so, but lately we’ve had a couple of daily cycles that ran to 50 days long. We are on day 39 and the markets do look to be getting heavy, plus we closed under the 10 sma on Friday for the first time in a while, so I am expecting a drop and then we look for a swing low to go long as a dcl. A few days ago I mentioned that you can short this, but it is not easy to short a bull, since it is often choppy intraday. That reversal on Thursday was also pretty bullish looking and may have caused some to close shorts.
THE BIGGER PICTURE FOR THE SPX WEEKLY: With the reversal at the lows and a base, I have often mentioned that I am expecting a run back to the highs in 2023, but I also think that we’ll see signs of a recession by then, so how could that happen?
1. Well, I have mentioned that we may see a double top, something like this, and then roll over with the USD 3 yr cycle low. Or…
2. We may even see a final blow off top as these markets continue to climb a wall of worry and uncertainty. A five wave drop after that could reset sentiment and play out during bearishly a recession. I drew this drop into 2027, but just ignore that. The 5 wave drop was unclear when I tried to draw it tighter together (like the 2022 five wave drop).
WTIC DAILY – Oil has been so choppy that it has become predictable 🙂 . Oil often runs 45-50 days from dcl to dcl, so on day 34, we have more of this to go if it can’t break that 50sma (now curling down again).
WTIC WEEKLY – This run along the 200 week ma & under the 10 week ma is interesting. Oil has chopped sideways since December and it is getting to be a very tight pinch over the past 7 weeks. A break down or up could lead to a strong move.
USD DAILY – The USD was due (overdo) for a low, and now we definitely have one with Fridays strong move. Where might this run to? Let’s flip to the weekly, but before we do I want to mention that this big 2 day pop in the USD hardly bothered Gold (insert thumbs up here), now to the weekly…
USD WEEKLY – If it remains strong, we do expect a drop with Gold and a pop with the USD, so we may see this.
Gold Daily: Do you remember the big 2 day pop in the USD? Well the daily Gold chart shows no major reaction and Gold even closed up on Friday, so that is encouraging. I am still expecting a dip into a final low to come in though, possibly in July now.
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I just want to repeat what I wrote about Gold on Friday as a reminder. These were Fib targets.
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FIB TARGETS
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GOLD WEEKLY -Gold has been trapped under the 10 week ma, which is similar to the 50sma on a daily. The weekly stochastics also looks like it needs to sell down a bit further.
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GOLD WEEKLY: This big picture for Gold is very bullish at this point, and when I see what happened after the 2008 break out to new highs, it gets exciting to think about what our Miners could do with a solid gold rally like that. It is not easy to patiently wait for a breakout and rally, but it should be a great time and very profitable once it happens. .
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SILVER is a bullish set up too, but it can be very choppy and difficult too.
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GDX -This was also in Fridays report and I’m repeating it here, because I think that it is a good guide to keep track of.
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That is our weekend review, and things still look very good for the Bulls in many sectors (despite the normal pull backs that come from dcl to dcl). It takes patience to just wait for the markets to come down to new levels as price goes on sale, but that kind of patience can pay off. Bitcoin has also been pointed out as a Bullish set up when I pointed out that we saw Major Lows form at the end of 2022. I will discuss that further below. Enjoy your weekend & Thanks for being here with me at Chartferak!
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~ALEX
I just want to mention again that this was a Major Low put in place and the move higher is really quite bullish. My personal take on the set up after studying past similar set ups ( especially with the ‘halving’), is that it is really going to run very strongly in 2024, but it has been moving up out of the lows steadily since last October 2022 and the Crypto Stocks have tripled.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY– With the current set up, this is week 2 out of the latest low and it was a big week. I expected maybe $35,000-ish recently, but since we are so early out of these cycles lows, Bitcoin could just take off & run for a few weeks too. Now even though this can just blast off like past rallies years ago (see the 3rd arrow in 2020 where it blasted higher), I want to point out something that keeps things a bit more tame for now, so let me show you a ‘tame’ idea of how this may play out too.
BITCOIN WEEKLY–
To tame those expectations, I want us to just look at the last low before this one (which is the second green arrow March 13 2023). It also had a very strong week 2 surge, right? But then it kind of died down, chopped sideways, and rolled over, right?
That slower push higher was when I thought we would hit $35,000, but it stalled right after the big week 2 surge. That slow push higher could also repeat as drawn here, So anything can happen from here, we’ll just have to see how it plays out. That said, Bitcoin and the other crypto currencies do seem to be catching on fire with a major low in place. So far we have a strong week out of that reversal low and that could continue. I like the MACD set up here very much, so even with this possible tame view, we could also see weeks of higher price. I will continue to cover crypto stocks in the reports.
