Friday June 30th

 

THE NASDAQ  just barely closed above the 10sma. With a low at day 41 and a swing low in place, it is likely a dcl. The SPX seems to confirm that too…

THE SPX closed clearly above that 10sma and this does look to be day 3 after a dcl. If it rolled over and dropped below the 10sma, it probably wouldn’t stay down there for long.

The IWM is even more clear, since it does appear to be on day 4 after reversing above the 34 sma.

One thing that we will have to discuss in the weekend report is this:

How long will this daily cycle last and how strong will it be? Will it put in a good run like this, and then drop to an ICL, or will this form as very L.T. and roll over sooner than later? Either way, you buy and raise stops along the way, but honestly an ICL is due and often the dip does start to show up around July or August.

XOP: Oil is still choppy, but Oil stocks started to break above the down trend on Thursday. I also mentioned this week that the series of higher lows made oil Stocks more bullish than Oil, but it still may run to the 200sma and drop and remain choppy. Charts of NOG, APA, CPE, MRO, VLO, WTI, etc are also looking like they may push higher out of recent bases or consolidations, but it may be choppy and frustrating, unless they are short term trades.  Most of those look like they could run up to their 50sma too, except for NOG. Nog has actually been riding the 50sma higher.

 

THE USD pushed higher again, and Gold ignored it again.  Very interesting. This looks at least short term bullish.

GOLD dropped and put in a reversal candle with that push higher in the USD. Gold is not dropping the way one would expect with the USD rising. Notice the lower trend line and…

GOLD reversed at the 38.2% Fib level as well as that lower trend line. Gold is not crashing down into a low, it is chopping lower with the USD rising. That is bullish.

SILVER actually has a low in place at the 200sma and the 50% Fib level. That is bullish, especially because it has ignored the USD rise too. We also got a dip & reversal candle on Wednesday, but the 10sma is holding it down. Silver actually looks like a possible a-b-c drop into an ICL. If this pops higher, I think that Silver stocks would be a buy, and I’ll show you why after we discuss Silver and GDX further.

SILVER close up: Silver dropped and put in a reversal candle between the 200sma and 10sma. We have obvious divergence on the Silver May & June lows (see the MACD). This is a bullish set up, and could be an a-b-c down into an ICL. Right now we just aren’t 100% sure if it is long term bullish or a short-term bounce, but I would say that it can be bought with a stop.

 

Now we get to the Miners. This is also a bullish set up using technical analysis and the good news is, it is at the very lows.

.

GDX is at the lowest point of this daily cycle as it lost and regained the 200sma. GDX closed up 1.37% with the USD rising. A reversal like this can be bought with a tight stop, but I do have 1 problem with the set up, and that is cycle count…

GDX – These would either be 2 very short daily cycles with a low 20’s cycle count, or one long daily cycle with a 1/2 way point. So this means that we are either at an ICL point ( 5 waves down or a-b-c down), or we may just be at a dcl and we get 1 more daily cycle.  Either way, I also think that this is a buy with a tight stop at the lows to be safe.

.

Now I’ll show you why I said that Silver looks good and Silver stocks like a buy too.

.

EXK has been beaten down, but take a look at that divergence at the recent low. 5 waves down into a divergence low. I’ll admit that it is a horribly ugly chart to see a stock rally in March straight up and give it all back, but when we do get an ICL, it could easily rally back upto those highs and more.

 

 

HL has strong divergence too. Other Silver stocks are showing the same divergence too.

HMY finally joined in on the selling, and it may be at a support area. Again, we may be getting ready for Gold & Silver to bounce out of a dcl, or it could turn into something more if buyers pile in and shorts cover.

.

It is Friday, the last trading day of the week and then (in the U.S.) The Markets only open for a 1/2 day on Monday and are closed on Tuesday.  You might as well say that we have Saturday through Tuesday off, but for today you can see how the above set ups play out.  I am away from the Markets and will try to have the weekend report out by Sunday night. Enjoy your Friday trading!

.

~ALEX

.

After a strong surge higher, Bitcoin is consolidating those gains. This may be a bullish pennant and I’d love to see it  break higher and takes it to $35,000. Crypto Stocks have been choppy but bullish.