Friday June 16th
Today is Friday, the last day of a data filled week that has had the markets running higher. I did not realize it until I got a notification from my brokerage, but the Markets are actually closed in the U.S. on Monday, so we have another holiday 3 day weekend. Let’s just do a quick review of the markets, because basically nothing has changed…
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SPX – We had CPI, PPI, FOMC, and Jobless Claims this week and as you can see, the Markets were green every day of the week, and it really stretched out higher yesterday. I mentioned this week with the Nasdaq that this is starting to look exuberant and like they could run it into a parabolic top. The SPX looks to be starting to ramp up in that way too.
YESTERDAY I WROTE:
The NASDAQ … We are due for a dip at day 35, and it is very overbought, but doesn’t this look a little like the bulls keep stepping in and could give it a parabolic blow off top in time? We’ll see.
The NASDAQ is climbing that 10sma like a champ, so all you do is raise your stops as we get later and later into a daily cycle. This was day 36.
THE IWM was our lagger as it based out sideways, but once it broke out it was a buy and many EV / Clean Energy were in the reports. They have been on a tear out of these lows. This could run to the February Peak.
I pointed out the Bases in some of these EV Stocks, like SOLO …
SOLO popped 23% by midday the next day, and…
You can see that it was still running as of Midday yesterday, after opening in the red. SOLO was up 20% at one point. Wow, so…
SOLO WEEKLY: So SOLO is now up 72% in 4 days this week. These can be explosive and they should become buy the dip candidates in time.
WKHS was up 4% at the open on Tuesday and I posted this chart due to the volume. This would be a buy.
WKHS broke out and was up 6% Tuesday, 6% Wednesday and ran up 18% yesterday. Each day it sells down a little into the close, but NKLA did the same thing and you’ve seen JOBY, CBAT, NKLA, and a few others , right?
JOBY has been in a relentless run for weeks. It does have days where it pops and drops, but the rally continued. THIS IS NOT A BUY, it needs to consolidate at some point, but JOBY, CBAT, and now NKLA are running like this and who know, others like NIO, WKHS, FCEL, etc could be next? We are coming due for a dcl, so that next leg higher may be when that happens. We’ll see.
WTIC reversed and was higher by 3.4% Oil is Choppy.
THE XOP is above the 50sma, so it is more bullish set up than Oil, but it is also sideways and choppy.
USD lost support post Fed Meeting and after the Jobless Claims Report. This is the same thing that happened after the strong rally in Feb-March. It rallied and stretched higher day after day, but then when it started to weaken, it made what looked like one very long round daily. If this drop continues like it did in March and April, it will help Gold to push higher.
GOLD dropped post Fed Mtg, but reversed higher and gave us a reversal yesterday. Gold and Silver both put in decent reversals at recent lows, but the Miners didn’t quite believe it, and they were down almost all day long until the end of the day.
*If Gold can continue to push higher and get above the 50sma, that may signal that it is ready to try to break out to new all time highs, and that the USD is continuing lower into its 3 yr cycle low.
SILVER also has a strong reversal. *If the USD continues to drop lower and this breaks out above the 50sma, that could also be signaling that the consolidation low is in place and the selling is done.
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GDX – So I have been saying that this set up in the Precious metals Sector is odd. With the Bank Failure and the shortened March ICL, is it possible that we will just see the USD roll over and continue lower and push these higher, as though we have one giant daily cycle? A breakout higher above this downtrend and then the 50sma would likely be saying that the selling is over. I hate to buy this and get stopped out, but it is near the lows and honestly, it could break higher.
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Well, we are at the final day of the week and if you live in the U.S., you’ll need to decide how you’d like to be positioned going into a 3 day weekend. Trading has been strong this week, despite all of the Data being released. If we run up into a parabolic blow off top, this could be a bullish exhaustion type of a move. It would peak and then the dip into a dcl will take place. With that dip, we could then rally up in daily cycle #4 for the General Markets, but we would need trailing stops then too, because we also could see a drop into the next ICL in the 4th or 5th daily cycle (into August). I will discuss this in the weekend report, but do you remember what I said with this chart? We had a strong run in 2020, followed by a high ICL, and then another strong run, and that could happen into the end of 2023. We can run back to the 2021 highs.
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I have a busy weekend helping my parents out and a few other commitments. I don’t want to come home and rush through the report, so I would say that The Weekend Report will come out later in the weekend, but definitely out by Monday morning before the trading starts for those outside the US. Likely it will be released on Sunday though. Enjoy your weekend or long weekend if you are in the U.S.
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~ALEX
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I’ve been saying that BITCOIN is now in a downtrend, and it made a new low yesterday. Once we get a new bottom in Bitcoin, this will be a great buying opportunity for Crypto stocks. This is not due for a final low here though.
