Tuesday May 16th – The Slow Sideways Chop
SPX – The markets are continuing to chop along sideways. Was day 38 a dcl or a 1/2 cycle low? We do not know, but you can buy with a stop and hope for some more upside.
The NASDAQ is a bit different, since it is slanting higher and broke out to new highs. It is now riding along the 10 sma. Buying that recent dip would have you raising your stop to possibly the 10sma.
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The SOXX is interesting, because when I took a closer look at it, it seems to have put in a slightly lower low in Late April. It popped higher on Monday, but I think we should expect it to possibly triple top and roll over after that. It did close above the 50sma and next will be an attempt to get above that trend line. The MACD is indicating that it should begin to top soon.
The XBI( Biotech and Pharma) I just want to point this out 1 more time. When the Markets were dropping into their ICL as expected by us, they were cut short when the Banks failed and The USD dropped. BIOTECH did not bounce then, it continued to play out as it should, and that gave the XBI a healthy ICL.
I pointed out PYXS last week, I really like the way it is curling higher off of support. Many of these companies like VXRT, SYRS, PYXS, GLYC, SURG, etc released earnings and have been trending higher. These go on a watch list and we buy the dips ( or LABU). I’ll discuss that at the end of the report again.
WTIC – Oil flipped higher after a run to the recent downtrend line and a dip. It should be able to break above the downtrend and 50sma if it has an ICL, but Oil has certainly been choppy.
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The USD has stalled at resistance and dropped back below the blue 50 sma. The RSI is bullish and so is the MACD, so we’ll have to see if the USD can break out here.
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GOLD has been chopping sideways after the strong run out of the recent March lows. I have been thinking that the first daily cycle was strong, so this 2nd one may be a choppy consolidation as the USD bounces. That low at the Red arrow should hold up though, if that is the case.
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I don’t like GOLDS MACD. Use stops, because if the USD could put in a bigger bounce above that resistance area, this sector could drop like it did in March.
After a flash crash last week, SILVER reversed right at the 38.2% Fib level and the 50sma. Will this hold as support if the USD bounces up a little higher? We’ll have to wait and see.
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GDX is not reached the 38.2% Fib level or the 50sma get, so we may see more downside if the USD bounces. One thing that stands out is that Gold, GDX, & GDXJ did not take out the late April lows yet. I don’t like the weakness in the MACD and it seems to be calling this a mini double top in April & May. I would think that GDX can see more downside as the USD bounces. Maybe to the 50% fib level? It is almost oversold.
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On Tuesday we’ll have to continue to monitor the USD and see what the rest of the sectors do if it bounces and is able to get above resistance. Use stops just in case the USD puts in a bounce above that resistance area ( Closes above the 50sma for a day or 2). Enjoy your Tuesday trading, I will discuss Bitcoin and biotech a little bit further below.
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin :
Bitcoin is choppy and in a resistance zone, but it also should be putting in a dcl at day 60 area. I was looking for a swing low here.
I have been watching for that reversal swing low around day 60 and this was the reversal for Bitcoin. I hope that it just runs higher, because even though I have a wedge drawn here bullishly, it also resembles a H&S. So to add a bit more confidence top the trade…
LTCN– I took a look at ETHE and LTCN to gain a bit more assurance, and they were both nicely higher too. A confidence booster (so far).
CIFR was rising over the 50sma so I posted this in the commenting area last week and at 10:30 yesterday. It actually closed up about 15%.
MARA has large choppy days, so it may not be fun for everyone, but it did reverse at the 50 & 200sma Friday and Monday.
RIOT has been chopping sideways and hopefully it will hold above that 50sma.
FUBO was pointed out as a company that released earnings and took off, so I usually say that you can buy the dip at support. Last week was the dip.
Some of these Pharma / Biotech stocks are starting to trend higher out of the recent lows That was Pointed out as the ICL for XBI & LABU. I wrote this early in the trading day yesterday ( My watch list has many of these ). Look for the ones that already released earnings.
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SYRS started running and closed up 8% yesterday, so you put it on a watchlist, hope for a dip to support and buy the dip.
VXRT – Had their earnings around that Bull Flag above the 50sma, and I mentioned it then. It has been rising ever since ( I did not buy it sadly). Yesterday I pointed that out here, but this ended up stretching Up around 40% at one point yesterday alone.
