Thursday May 25th – Did You See NVDA Afterhours?

NASDAQ – On Wednesday the markets continued to drop with the Fed minutes. This purple box is the same size as other boxes, so I was expecting more of a drop into a dcl assuming that the other dip was just a 1/2 cycle dip. We lost the 10sma,  however…

SOXL AFTER HRS – I saw the futures ramp up in a big way after NVDA released their earnings. NASDAQ futures were up over 240 points and this is what SOXL looked like. It ramped up from $16 to $18 in after hrs! So with this, we’ll have to see if it inspired buying or is just a temporary news driven pop that drops.

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And this was NVDA after hrs. Notice this: It closed near $300 and ramped up to almost $400!

THE SPX also continued to drop toward the 50sma. Initial jobless claims is to be released at 8:30 am ET, so we’ll see if that causes more downside or not, but the futures on Wednesday night ramped up with a big surprise.

The USD ran higher again yesterday and could be at a resistance area, however, let me zoom in…

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The USD made a very odd run in March. Let me explain:

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THE USD  ran up to a day 19 peak, and then rolled over and failed at day 41. That is a Very odd daily cycle caused when the banks failed. We should have seen the ICL in the USD in that Feb 1st low, but since it was broken during a VERY LONG 41 day daily cycle, it became L.T. and now we may be seeing the ICL here in an attempt to finish its job. We are on day 23 as a peak so far and really we should be dropping into a dcl, but these cycles are acting altered and this remains strong.

The same but opposite story stands for GOLD:

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Gold – You should recall that Gold was supposed to drop into the ICL into March and maybe into early April, but I said that the ICL drop seemed to be cut very short with a strong rally due to Bank failures. Now we see that rally rolling over as the USD bounces, so now it looks like we had a day 36 daily cycle low. The next peaked at day 11 and rolled over to fail and is on day 25, so…

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 I have pointed to past ICL drops that were mild buy prolonged sideways chop (like these ICL drops in 2019). As Gold began to roll over and the USD began to bounce strongly again, it seems that they want to finish that unfinished business of a ‘correction’, which is what an ICL is. It changes sentiment from Bullish to Bearish and we see that happening now. That simply means that Gold may chop sideways & lower now.

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SILVER – So the story is the same with Silver.  These are NOT normal times when Banks fail, so we do not get normal smooth cycles that line up as they normally due. With that in mind, we really just need to be patient and allow this to playout.  I was looking for a place to Buy back in since I got knocked out when Silver failed, but for now I am not in a hurry to get back in and get chopped up in sideways chop. I may miss some upside if it takes off like a rocket as it did in March, but I am ok with that.  I am watching HMY, OR, EGO, DRD, and even EXK, HL, AUY, MUX, etc daily to see how they act during the dip. SO FAR…

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Those stocks that I mentioned were the very strong ones in the last run. I want to watch them and be ready to enter when the next meaningful low is put into place.

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HMY was a strong runner and you can see that so far it is a normal pullback toward the 50sma.

1. Will it just chop sideways from here? Maybe.

2. Will it do a shake out at the 50sma? Maybe.

3. Could it drop 50% or down to that Jan high? Maybe.

These are the things that I am watching for and will have these charts in future reports when it looks like it is time to re-enter.

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So I am expecting more of a drop in The Miners or The GDX and GDXJ.

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It is possible that the General Markets run higher and the recent dip into a 1/2 cycle low could become the dcl. NVDA really rocked the futures last night ( to the upside), so the party in the General Markets, especially tech & Biotech, may continue, while the chop int he Precious metals sector also continues until the USD begins to pull back. We’ll see if the jobless Claims Report at 8:30 affects things one way or the other too. Enjoy your Thursday trading.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN dropped and ALMOST took out the lows, but it didn’t.  Oddly, while it was dropping, MARA , RIOT, HUT, etc actually went green, despite the drop in the SPY & QQQ.

RIOT reversed right at the 50sma and MARA did too, so these continue to act properly, even when the markets sold off and bitcoin dropped rapidly toward the lows again. Stops should be at that 50sma.