Thursday May 18th – Trade Ideas
We’ve been watching the USD rise and in the recent past that has caused the General Markets and Gold to pullback. S0 yesterday I said that you’d want to raise stops to the 10sma in the General Markets, since we’d likely see the markets begin to dip.
.
From Yesterdays report: The Nasdaq, SPX, and SOXX did have reversal candles, so we may begin to see a pullback start in the General Markets. This is day 15 from that last low on the 50sma.
.
The USD continued to rise, but the markets did NOT pullback with that reversal candle, so here we see The NASDAQ with a nice little break out & follow through. Raise stops to the blue line ( in a trade like QQQ or TQQQ for example)
SOXX pushed higher by 2.47%, and SOXL (3X) was up by 7.24%. Also with Semiconductors AMD, MU, NVDA, etc look like Bullish charts…
AMD – I posted this at 10:30 am in the comments and mentioned that those semis looked bullish. AMD went on to close at new 8 month highs yesterday. You can see how this was a ‘Buy the dip” candidate once it recovered the 50sma.
I’ve also discussed trading Biotech and LABU. Did you see this yesterday? That is a bullish reversal at the 20sma.
WTIC broke higher from the higher low and above the recent downtrend. Oil is choppy and I’m not personally trading it, but you can always buy a higher low or downtrend break out like this and see what you get. (UCO & USO are Oil Trades).
.
Here is the problem child. I wrote on this chart that this will likely be a R.T. daily cycle, but we did see something similar in February and it was NOT RT. In Feb the USD rally had a peak very late at the downtrend line and then roll over for so many days that it became L.T. & even broke the Feb lows.
.
Currently, The USD is putting in a steady bounce and I am watching the blue line as possible resistance again. As noted above, the General Markets ignored the USD rise, but unfortunately Gold did not.
This is GOLD at 6 A.M. Thursday and you can see that it is VERY close to breaking that recent dcl. Spot Gold reads 1969.21 as the dcl, today I see 1972.05 (so far) with the USD rising again today. As mentioned in yesterdays discussion written specifically for this sector, it does not make sense for Gold to have a very strong rally out of an ICL in March, only to fail in the following daily cycle. This is an anomaly and it seems to simply be Gold vs The USD direction-wise.
And with this chart yesterday we see that Gold might drop to the lower channel over time as the USD rises to its’ own overhead trend line.
.
I pointed out that in the past Bull Runs, The ICL dips were long choppy drops, yet they were rather mild when it came to depth. We could see that here too.
.
In the 2019 Bull Run, We saw this LONG CHOPPY DROP repeatedly breaking to new lows, but not Deep drops.
.
I can justify The GDX drop with a megaphone or bullhorn pattern.
.
Yesterday GDX tagged the 50sma and 38% Fib level, but it can chop lower in that bullhorn if the USD continues to bounce.
.
When I look at the Precious Metals sector using Technical Analysis, it is perfectly fine, but with Cycles it is breaking lows that should have held up. It seems to be indicating a choppy period while the USD bounces higher. In recent reports I also discussed Bitcoin and some crypto stocks. I will discuss that again, along with more Biotech / Pharma stocks below. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
I posted this chart a week ago when I discussed that I look for 30 & 60 day dips in Bitcoin to mark a 1/2 cycle low and a dcl . This was the day 63 reversal. that should mark the dcl. I then showed MARA, RIOT, CIFR, CLSK, etc as having had earnings already released, and reversing bullishly with Bitcoin. So again, I posted this last week…
BITCOIN LIVE 6:30 am ET: This should be day 6 with a very gradual crawl out of the dcl reversal low. How are the crypto stocks responding? A bit choppy, but they look bullish…
.
MARA – I actually posted this in the commenting area yesterday to show a bullish set up. The reversal at the 50sma is where MARA released earnings and it looked ready to break the 10 & 20sma and tight downtrend. You could use that as a stop.
.
MARA broke out and closed up 9% yesterday. I loosened the downtrend to the current price.
.
On May 10 last week I pointed out that CIFR released earnings too, and looked like a shakeout recovery buy in the $2.00 area.
CIFR hit $2.55 yesterday and the lows seem to be in place.
HUT released earnings 5 days ago at the latest lows. It started to pop as Bitcoin was red yesterday, so I posted this 7% pop. It looks like it wants to break out and run, but so far it has been very choppy consolidating recent gains.
.
RIOT has been chopping along the 34 sma (it is above the 50sma, not shown). RIOT also released earnings last week so when bitcoin pushes higher all of these should follow.
.
I have been discussing Biotech and Pharma stocks. I have a list of probably over 100 companies from the covid days to the recent rally in this sector that came before the ICL.
This is a bullish reversal at the 20sma for the sector…
.
I use a watchlist of company stocks to see if any start trending again, now that the ICL was in place. Many are trending and some just explode higher ( maybe overly shorted from the sell off into April. Let’s take another look. Recently I stated that VAXART is one that is trending, so you can buy the dips…
.
MAY 15 VXRT : VXRT put in a bull flag above the 50sma and never dipped enough to get a good entry before it popped 16% and then it just kept going. I had this in a recent report, so has it pulled back as a buy opportunity yet?
VXRT popped another 30%! I do think that it is getting extended and will gradually dip lower. What a run though, out of the ICL. 150%.
.
IMMP – Out of this base we have a successful lung cancer trial and the rest is history. I never chase these at this point, no matter how good the news is. I wait and see if it gives a dip later on.
So here is one that I put in the report last week and PYXS is continuing to act correctly. It even offered a small dip on Tuesday. That was a massive run out of the ICL and this is what I am talking about when I say I wont chase it, I look for a dip back to support. It took a few weeks, but that buy at the 50sma was a good entry.
I like the set up for DARE, because it had a strong rally in January and then sold off into a base with the ICL drop. The 200sma seems to be holding it back, but break out could start it trending higher.
.
CLOV released earnings and I was going to buy it at the 50sma, but I missed it. This is another one that shows how these can trend with a little buying and maybe some short covering. This can keep running up the 9sma, but it isn’t a low risk entry anymore, I just wanted to show you again how this sector is acting after earnings / good news /etc with the Lows in place.
.
FULC crawled under the 50sma and then broke out, so I like this set up (Large round base). Earnings is what pushed it above the 50sma. I grabbed this Tuesday and on Wednesday it pulled back a little more, so I do think that this may be a good buy candidate.
SENS sold off sharply during that ICL drop, but it popped 40% recently with earnings ( possibly some Short covering?). After a 40% pop it slowly pulled back for 4 days and this is actually a nice back test of that 50sma. It reversed and can start to trend higher – or – it can crawl a little more along the 50sma, but this is pretty much a perfect looking back test after a big earnings Pop.
I bought and sold RKLB last December for 1/2 of that rally. It then went on my watchlist and it finally stopped chopping and started to push higher. This is not Biotech, it is Aerospace, so it may follow the Nasdaq a bit, but it looks bullish.
