MAY 13th Weekend Review
This week was a rough one mentally, because several things happened that should not have. That means that we experienced the unexpected, but when all is said and done, was there any real damage? That is what our weekend reports are for – The Big Picture. Only Silver broke down, but I think that it will recover, and I’ll show you why.
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I have had a chance to collect all of my charts for the weekend report and surprisingly, I don’t feel that any major damage was done. Really? Well, for starters, after all that we saw taking place with Silver and a few Silver stocks crashing, did you know that Gold only ended the week down $5? Yep, Gold was down a mere $5, and the Miners ( GDX & GDXJ) did not break below their lows (dcl), even though the USD had a pretty good pop on Friday. Let’s just get to the weekend report so you can see what I have found. To the charts!…
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The SPX DAILY was not harmed at all with the USD bounce, even though it should be ready to travel lower into a dcl. Notice that all week (5 days) all we saw was simply sideways price action. The markets kept selling off and recovering. If day 38 was a dcl, this can go higher, but so far it hasn’t and the last 2 daily cycles were 50 days long, so let’s use stops and expect a possible dip down into a dcl. If it runs higher, ride it out.
SPX WEEKLY – I am still of the opinion that we ended the bear market at support after a year and should rally up toward the highs again, but since we see signs that a recession should happen by the end of the year, the selling might start a double top and another period of time selling off. If that doesn’t happen, we’ll stay long and rally to new highs.
THE NASDAQ WEEKLY was much choppier at the lows, but it has actually started to perk up a bit. It made it to new daily cycle highs this week while the SPX couldn’t get there. Please review the chart and examine past ICLs. Soe are choppy bottoms, others were rocket ships higher.
OIL DAILY – I don’t think I can emphasize this enough, but the chart sure backs me up when I say :
Bottom after bottom I mention that the reversal is a buy. We expect a decent rally, but Oil just cannot find the buying follow through, and this has happened time and time again. Just take a look at this chart and you’ll see that Oil has been extremely choppy, daily cycle after daily cycle ( that’s month after month).
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OIL WEEKLY – On the weekly we see that oil has landed in a support zone, but again, so far it is just one failed rally after another. Oil is Choppy. Notice that with some of the deeper sell offs and ICLs, the MACD was a V-Bottom, but this one is curling up in the form of a ‘U’. We could / should have an ICL in this time period, but follow through has been weak ( no buyers).
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The USD put in a decent bounce this week, especially on Friday. Silver took it on the chin, but this did not break Gold or the Miners. Let’s take a look.
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USD DAILY – The USD bounced higher Friday and this is day 16 on this chart. This does not make this right translated and long term Bullish yet, because the daily cycle could be 36 days long, we have to wait and see, but this does look bullish. Note: It is right at resistance again. …
I used this APRIL 14th Chart in an April report: It showed the 3 YR CYCLE LOW as being due on January 2024. Next…
APRIL 14th Chart: USD 3 YR CYCLE LOW – Next I wanted to I add a support line and this is where the USD is finding support and able to bounce right now. This should eventually break down for a 2nd leg lower.
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The USD using Stockcharts: I just wanted to point out that the USD looks very bullish with a peak on day 20 here, but the last rally had a day 23 peak, and yet that rolled over into a new low at the Magenta arrow, so we can keep that in mind. One more important thing about the USD with Fridays strong push higher was…
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The USD has that strong bounce on Friday, but…
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Gold was hardly affected by that Friday bounce to new highs.
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GOLD DAILY:
With that USD bounce, Gold was down 70 cents, less than $1.00. Last week Gold did NOT break the dcl, we do not have a failed daily cycle.
IN A RECENT REPORT, YOU MAY RECALL THAT I MENTIONED THAT GOLD COULD HAVE A SIDEWAYS 2ND DAILY CYCLE AS A CONSOLIDATION, AND THEN A 3RD DAILY CYCLE RALLY.
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I drew that like this, sideways until day 33, but above the dcl. If the USD keeps rising, Gold may ignore it and simply become choppy and this is building energy in preparation of a Major break out.
GOLD could be chopping sideways to build energy and prepare to break out.
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GOLD WEEKLY – Can you believe that with all of the pain and worry in Precious Metals last week, Gold was only down $5.00 for the whole week? Think about that for a minute. Is that bearish with the USD bounce, or is that Bullish?
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SILVER dropped sharply and I’m wondering if this is just because it is easier to manipulate. It must be fairly easy to cause a $24 commodity to sell off, while Gold only dipped $5.00. Silver landed on the 50sma on Friday and bounced, and this was while the USD pushed to new daily cycle highs Friday.
SILVER broke the dcl that we had marked, but I do not view this as bearish in the big picture. Silver dropped to the 50sma, a bullish 38.2% Fib level and is testing a support area on the left. Thursdays massive candle is not pretty, but Fridays small candle was helpful.
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Last week this chart was in the big picture weekend report.
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It was to show again that SILVER broke out and above that downtrend.
SILVER has now back tested that trendline and bounced when the USD was rising. In technical analysis, this is more bullish, and not bearish.
GDX did not break the daily cycle lows with the USD at new daily cycle highs. GDX closed green on Friday with the USD at daily cycle highs. That is impressive to me, since we know that it could have been trashed like the silver stocks were. This would be day 11.
HMY – These stocks still do not reflect ‘panic’ or a ‘major sell off’ that cascades lower like Miners often do. If you showed me this chart on any other week, I’d say that I expect it to drop to the $4.75 area. It closed green on Friday with the USD at the highs.
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DRD dropped to the 13 sma and reversed to green on Friday too. That is bullish price action on a day when the USD closed at the highs. I must admit that when a stock gets 100% above the 200sma, its a bit frothy! It should sell off, but DRD did not sell off to the 50sma yet, and it probably should. These stocks remain in a strong bullish uptrend.
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Does anyone feel any better? I know that I do!
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I will be honest, I sold all of my miners and that includes the perfectly bullish ones like HMY, KGC, DRD. We were seeing Silver stocks crash (EXK, HL, FSM) 1 day before Silver itself crashed. I gave some gains back there. Could Gold crash & take down the miners? I compare that to watching a huge forest fire burning right next door to your house. It hasn’t hit your house yet, but aren’t you going to do ‘Something’ to protect your property – just in case that fire travels? I tried to move my property away from the fire, but with this weekend report, it seems that the fire is contained. It was only a Silver fire so far. Even when the explosive accelerant (USD) was added to the fire on Friday, things seemed to cool down.
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When I look at the markets and the charts, That is how my eyes see things visually, that is how I pictures the Silver slam down. I was only focused on the fire, but now I see that Gold was only down $5 for the week with the USD at daily cycle highs on Friday? That says something bullish about Gold, but also HMY was only down 11 cents for the week! Now I’m on the sidelines hoping for a bit more of a pullback 🙂 .
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So right now, this remains a bullish set up for the General Markets, Oil (choppy but higher) and The Precious Metals. Even if the USD bounces further, it seems that the Gold Market has strong hands and Silver had the weak hands (or it’s easily manipulated, if you believe in that possibility / AKA JPMorgan).
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I am away for the week visiting with friends on the coast of Panama City Florida. Nancy, I wish it were closer to you, my wife and I would have you come to breakfast with us. This vacation will not affect the reports at all, it never has in the past, but I may not be constantly in the live commenting area trading each day this week. I do usually pop in from time to time though, so I appreciate YOUR comments. They help me to get up to speed with the market action. As you know, I also need to get repositioned soon, and as of Friday, I also think that Bitcoin may have bottomed. I do NOT want to miss that low since Crypto stocks can gain 10-20% /day on a good run, so I will be around in the mornings near the opening bell. I will cover Bitcoin below and a look at GOLD SENTIMENT.
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Enjoy your weekend, it was a bit of a rough week mentally, and as always thanks for being here at Chartfreak with me!
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~ALEX
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GOLD SENTIMENT: I wanted to show everyone that in the past, when Gold was at ‘all-time highs’, Sentiment was Extremely bullish. That can lead to ‘tops’ in the markets. It is not that way now, and that is a good things.
On this chart, GOLD is at the top and you can see the 3 times that it was at this $2000 area. Then drop down to the lower box (Sentiment) and you see that it was HIGHs too. That can mean that all of the buyers are already in, and a sell off or profit taking occurs. A top forms. Right now we are only 1/2 way to that over exuberant area. THIS helps Gold to remain Bullish.
BITCOIN : We had a reversal at day 45, and even though Bitcoin is pretty reliable with the 30 & 60 day dips, I wondered if we could have a dcl at day 45? As time went on I started to express that this sideways chop may not be a rally out of a day 45 dcl. In other words I have mentioned that: We should look for – or expect – or not be surprised if we dip into day 60. We now have a reversal on day 63 Friday. This would be a perfect dcl, because the Crypto stocks stopped dropping on early Friday too, even when Bitcoin made new lows late Friday. Some even closed green with Bitcoin at the lows. I mentioned this in the live commenting area.
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MARA : As Bitcoin sold off on Friday, Mara started to find support at the 50sma and closed green (so did CLSK, CIFR, HUT, etc). If that reversal in Bitcoin holds over the weekend, this may be the lows for MARA, RIOT, CLSK, CIFR, HUT, HIVE, etc, and almost all released earnings this week, so that is out of the way.
