Wednesday April 26th – The Next Move

 We’ve been looking for the lows (DCLs) to form in the General Markets and Precious metals, and when they do form, we should get the next move higher. Crypto stocks looked set up too, with Bitcoin dropping to the 50sma, and I think that Crypto is making The Next move too. I mentioned that sector along with the GDX in the live area yesterday. So on Tuesday, The USD popped higher yesterday, but some sectors resisted that strength. Let’s take a look …

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The SPX dropped. I drew this during trading hrs to show that with a dip, we could be now seeking out the dcl. I have mentioned that the last 2 daily cycles were 50 days long, so I’m hoping that this one is shorter and just drops to the 50sma. We’ll have to wait and see though.

So with The SPX , we lost that 10sma and prior dips to a dcl DID break through the 50sma. This chopping and dropping might even last into the FOMC Mtg next week.

 

WTIC – Oil dropped, but remains above the 50sma.

THE XOP had a reversal and looked ready to break out higher. Did this end up following the markets lower? IF THAT CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE, I would exit any Oil stocks, simply because we just don’t know how much the General market can sell down. We already saw with the SPX above that it can break below the 50sma into the Fed Mtg and still be fine. Let’s look at ‘NOG’.

NOG dropped, but it looks fine as of now. It had a strong run and may just be dipping to fill that gap and find the 50sma. It really wasn’t fully oversold, so a pullback on some of these may just be normal price action, but it needs monitoring. We want to see Oil push higher and take these with it sooner than later.

This was the strength that the USD showed yesterday. It dropped the General Markets, but what about Gold & Silver?

GOLD was NOT down. It dipped and recovered toward the end of the day. For that reason, I think we have a day 35 dcl and heading into the Fed Mtg, we should see the USD weaken or roll over after the Fed Mtg. It may be good to remember…

It may be good to remember what I said about the similarities between Golds last run and now.  I was trying to show you (us) that Gold may be choppy as we head into the Fed Mtg, because it was choppy after the first strong rally, triangle, and then chop.

 

SILVER dropped to that support area, so I captured this in the morning and posted it in the live area. This was day 33, and that is in time for a dcl, so we would look for a reversal and swing low heading into the Fed Mtg.

SILVER then bounced and this was Silver at 11 pm ET . This may become the dcl.

GDX dropped as the USD popped, but it rallied back by the close.

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So GDX fell to the support of the prior highs too. It could still drop a bit more, since it isn’t fully oversold, and the 38% Fib level is around $32.50, near that 34 sma.  This doesn’t have to drop to oversold though, it can just go higher from here. Take a look at that Dec 15 dcl and the November abandoned baby dcl marked in Orange. Both of those dcls only got as oversold as we are now.

 

I was looking at the S. African Miners like DRD, HMY, AU, etc again. What pull back? DRD did a quick intraday gap fill last week and is back at the highs.

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HMY is another S. African Miner. It only dipped to the 20sma. I would have expected a drop to support at the prior highs and the 34 sma (blue line), but at this point we may just see these continue higher. It has been a choppy 2-3 weeks, but this is quite a bullish pullback.

Some Silver stocks reversed at support too.

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HL reversed at support yesterday when Silver dipped and recovered.

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EXK reversed right at the 38% Fib level. Again, I would have expected this to drop to the blue 34 sma line, but this may just be all we get with the Miners having put in a very bullish run in March- April. They may be eager to resume that run (Buyers stepping in).

NEM was giving us a swing low by midday, so I posted this chart. It is a buy with a stop under the 50sma.

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So the USD popped yesterday, but the Precious Metals are due for a dcl and they actually closed up by the end of the day. Many Miners had a strong straight up kind of a run in March and may be ready to continue higher. In other words, they have now caught the eyes of Buyers. Yes, Miners may just chop sideways or chop more slowly higher as we head into a Fed Mtg, but buying in this area does seem to be evident. We are also within the timing for a dcl, so it really does not seem to be too risky, if you use a stop. The S. African Miners are mostly chopping sideways, so the downside pain has been minimal. I also noticed that Bitcoin and those Miners flipped bullishly yesterday, so I was posting about that in the commenting area. I’ll discuss that a bit below. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN dipped to the 50sma over the past couple of days, but it did not sell off when the markets did. I mentioned that in the live area and pointed out MARA, RIOT, etc as bullishly pushing higher even though the SPX & NASDAQ were selling off to the days low.

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Here I was gathering charts at 11 p.m. and you can see that Bitcoin was not hurt by the market drop or Dollar pop.

BITCOIN landed on the 50sma and it actually looks ready to run higher to me. It has finally become oversold to the same degree as the last couple of rallies.

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MARA dropped right to the 34 sma and reversed at the support of the consolidation. I posted this reversal in the live area at 2:30, because the markets were still at the lows. This was a bullish reversal and take a look at some of these rallies in MARA, RIOT, HUT, CIFR, IREN, HIVE, etc.  They can REALLY run swiftly. MARA ran from $3 to $9 into January.

Take a look at the run from RIOT. Basically, we see a run from  $3 to $14 December to April, but trust me, this is a VERY difficult BUY & Hold. It dropped from $8 to $5 once, $10 to $8, and recently $14+ to here at $10. Those are big drops, but these runs higher can be rather amazing too.

CIFR also flipped higher at the 50sma, when the Markets were down and the USD was higher. This $2 stock can easily run to $3 or even $4 if it gets running. Big gains really.

 

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GOEV is an EV stock with a higher low. As the markets dropped, GOEV did not. It closed at 75 cents, so this sector MIGHT be starting to perk up. We already saw SOLO surge higher. FSR reversed off of the lows and closed up 8% yesterday, again, with the Markets selling off. Even if you don’t buy until a DCL forms, these may be worth watching to see if the sector is perking up.