Wednesday April 19th – Eventually Buying the Dip!

The USD popped and dropped and put in a Doji on Tuesday, so the Markets reacted fairly favorably to it, but we are now in the timing for a dip and I still feel that the Precious Metals need to pull back a little more too. We are not making gains, but at least the selling is rather tame so far. Let’s take a look at the Markets…

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SPX – We now have a day 25 peak on this daily cycle. The last daily cycle had a day 26 peak and then it started to roll over, so we need to keep that in mind. This could become a double top, so just use the 8 ema (or 10sma) as a stop.

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WTIC – Oil dropped and closed slightly green, so basically it continues to chop sideways after the large surge higher due to the OPEC production cuts.

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Yesterday we saw the USD pop up to the 20sma, but it should be weak since it is a failed daily cycle.

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So here we see that The USD ‘popped and dropped’ when it ran up to resistance. I am expecting The USD to remain weak and choppy, because it has failed.

 

If GOLD is going to put in a dcl, it normally will break the 10sma, so I drew an a-b-c style drop, however…

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GOLD – In recent reports I mentioned a few times that on the last run higher, Gold itself didn’t break below the 20sma. In past reports I said that I wondered if that 20sma would hold price up on this next run too. So…

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GOLD – So far Gold is actually still holding the 20sma. I still would expect a bit of a deeper dip to give us a normal looking dcl, but it didn’t happen on the last run higher, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

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SILVER barely broke the 10sma, but it needs to for a dcl, so we have to expect Silver to dip lower too.

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GDX did a pop and drop and is breaking below the 10sma. It is due for a dcl too.

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GDX dropped, bounced and could get a c wave lower. Here I drew it on support near $33, but that is just an estimate.

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On the last run, I remember that I had to label the Dec 19th low as a dcl, and it wasn’t a deep dip, but it was a difficult choppy period of time, so let’s keep that in mind too. Some rode that period of time out, others may have tried to trade out and get back in, but that can be hard in choppiness. A deeper dip is also possible this time.

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 At this point the General Markets are actually entering the time (day 26) when they have peaked in the past, and then they gradually chopped lower, so we really have to expect a dip there. The Precious Metals are also in the timing when they should pull back too, but the dip shouldn’t last too long. Gold, Silver, and The Miners dipped slightly and bounced yesterday, but often their dcls are deeper a-b-c style pullbacks. It was really hard to see those on the move higher last time, since they were mostly just choppy dips lower. We’ll just have to wait and see what we get on this run.

 EDIT: I wrote this report last night, but I am seeing the USD bounce again this morning, so I’ll add a little more to the report about that below. Each market sector should be a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity, but that doesn’t mean that I just jump in on the first or second day lower. Instead I try to see if we get reversals at support and near the time that a low is due. I will discuss that a bit more below. Yesterday was rather boring and today may just be the same, since these time periods can be choppy.

 Enjoy your Wednesday, but again, it may be time to be patient and wait to see how deep the dip goes.

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~ALEX

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When I got up this morning, the USD is bouncing again, and This is the 6 a.m. ET picture of the USD. Yesterday was the ‘Pop and Drop’ and today it is retracing that day with another pop. Will it drop again? Will it crawl along resistance? We’ll have to wait and see. I wouldn’t really expect a lot of strength in the USD, but it can chop around allowing the pull back in the precious metals to chop lower too. We’ll see how today plays out for a pullback in Miners…

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We’ll see how today plays out for a pullback in Miners. A choppy period of pop and drop for the USD can allow a choppy dip for Miners, similar to what we saw in November and December for HL. I’ll watch the 20, 34, and 50sma for dips at this point. Compare this current dip with those dips in the last run and you can see that this 3 day dip has not been deep enough.

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And again as a reminder, these dips can take time and they may just be choppy and frustrating too, similar to what we saw at the end on 2022, but eventually the USD should drop lower and this should run to new highs.