Tuesday April 11th – Shopping For Bargains
I wanted to start todays report with The USD:
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The USD surged almost 1% and closed well above the 10sma (8 ema shown). This now looks like the dcl and a confirmed swing low, so we’d be on day 2. When the USD rallied in February, that was when we saw both the General Markets and Precious Metals sell off. Did that happen on Monday?
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The SPX – The General Markets have been dropping when the USD rises, but you can see that on Monday it dropped to the 8 ema and actually recovered, even with the USD higher.
The NASDAQ, as represented by The QQQ’s, also reversed off of the support of the 13 sma. It looks like the Markets ( or big money) may be seeing the weakness in the USD longer term.
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Oil was down a little on Monday, but THE XOP was higher and is pushing on resistance. It easily broke through the 50sma, so this downtrend line may not hold price back.
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GOLD dropped and so far has back tested that triangle breakout as well as the 13 sma. Gold is due for a dcl, so if it dips a bit lower, it is not harmful to the bigger picture. This sector is in ‘Buy the dip’ mode.
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I will just add that I have mentioned in the past that a dcl can appear inside of a triangle as a higher low, but at this point the timing seems too short for a dcl in this triangle. That said, Gold does not look like it wants to sell off very much. It is strong after this breakout.
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SILVER actually looks to be flagging sideways as the USD pops. This is not a big dip with the USD up the way that it was. It sits above the former resistance turned support.
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GDX also dropped and started to bounce back, so the GDX was down a little over 1%, but some Miners did actually make it back to Green.
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After the close, I mentioned that some Miners went from Red to Green on Monday, and that was with the USD higher! That is uncommon, and that is a sign of strength. It shows us that buyers are buying that dip. let’s take a look at a couple of these Miners.
HL dropped a little to the 10sma and then it recovered. Some of these really don’t look threatened by the USD bounce. If the USD bounces for a couple of day, I imagine that we may see a handle form as drawn. If not, this may just keep climbing higher along the 10sma, also shown.
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MUX dropped about 40 cents actually, but then it also bounced off of support (10 sma) and recovered to green. That is great intraday price action.
GROY was lagging, but it crawled under the 50sma and is now finally taking off out of its’ base and the volume is increasing too. I believe that they released earnings over 2 weeks ago.
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So as mentioned in the weekend report, the charts remain bullish and even with the USD bouncing, buyers seem to be entering and preventing the deeper dips from taking place. The USD should be in drop to seek out the 3 yr cycle low over time, and that big picture weakness may be evident to smart money as they add or accumulate on the dips. The dips have only been dropping to the 10sma in many cases, so you may want to add to your Miners in that area too. You can always add with a reasonable stop and if selling accelerates (say below the 13sma), you can see and re-enter when the selling dries up, but so far the dip to the 10sma is about all that we are seeing. Enjoy your Tuesday trading, I have more below with Crypto too.
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~ALEX
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This is The USD live at 6:30 a.m. ET. It looks rather weak.
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THIS WAS BITCOIN AFTER THE MARKETS OPENED YESTERDAY: It looked ready to break out, but the interesting part was that…
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It was only 10 A.M. and GBTC was already breaking out, while Bitcoin itself was not. So I anticipated a breakout with Bitcoin and started to buy and point out the Crypto stock set ups.
BITCOIN THEN BROKE OUT OF THAT TRIANGLE LATER IN THE MORNING, so I grabbed this and posted it too.
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So I had posted this chart of RIOT after 10:30 a.m.- 1 Hr into trading went from Red to Green and was only up 1%, so that offered a cheap entry. It also held support again.
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THIS WAS WHAT I HAD WRITTEN IN THE COMMENTS.
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RIOT was then up over 5%, but I have mentioned that these often run 10 – 20% in a day.
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RIOT was then up 11%, slowly but surely all of the Crypto stocks were joining in. It closed up almost 16%, so you can see that even if you just jumped in with Bitcoin breaking out and held it for the day, you would have made great gains, and that was true for MARA, HUT, HIVE, CIFR, etc.
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HIVE was up 5% at 2:34 and it looks ready to break out from a flat topped wedge (or triangle pattern). It then broke out and closed up 8%, but this can run to prier highs and beyond once these get going.
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HUT was up 8% at 2:30 and closed up almost 10%, but again, these could be just starting to run with a bitcoin breakout. Hut itself is trying to break from a downtrend.
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SOS can be a little riskier (They did a public offering not too long ago), but it ran from $2.50 to $8.50 on the first run! It formed a bullish engulfing yesterday by 2:30 and closed up 10%.
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In a different sector, I watch and noticed that the “AI” Stocks are still acting bullishly , even when the Markets were red last week and yesterday. Just like Crypto stocks, these can be very tricky or volatile, but very rewarding too. I have traded AI, GFAI, SOUN, BFRG, and BBAI. The less volatile seem to be BBAI and SOUN at this point, so let’s take a look.
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BBAI ran from 50 cents to $6.50 in a couple of weeks and then these sold off sharply. BBAI crawled under the 50sma as a possible buy, it broke above the 50sma and landed back on it. Those 2 break out days were 25 & 28% gainers. THAT is why these are so hard to hold. The drop to the 50sma was similar, but now BBAI looks ready to possibly run higher again.
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SOUN also ran in a big way when ‘AI’ caught on fire. It dropped, crawled at the 13 sma, and Popped last week for 2 days. Those were 40% and 16% days, and then it dropped back toward the 13sma. Friday and Monday it pushed higher and may try to break this downtrend line and run again.
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SOMETHING TO WATCH?
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TLRY – This is a good looking base and some of the MJ Stocks look ready to ‘Bounce’. They never seem to gain enough traction for anything more than a bounce (yet), but the bounces are strong. So TLRY was trying to push higher and then they released earnings last night. It was down 5% after confirming that they were still buying HEXO. So it was up 5% yesterday, and dropped 5% in after hrs. It may be worth watching over the next few days.
