April 15 Weekend Report
I wanted to try to get this out on Saturday, so I got up early and gathered charts and was able to put it together before heading out to dinner. That said, I do NOT have time to proofread and fix typos, so please excuse any mistakes.
Things remain Big Picture Bullish, so let’s get right to the review.
.
SPX DAILY – We have a day 23 peak on our daily chart. Friday was a doji candle of indecision, because the USD bounced and caused some selling, but the markets did bounce into the close and try to come back.
So the Big Picture for The SPX WEEKLY continues to be a bullish set up with the breakout and back test of the downtrend. I have been saying all through 2023 that at this point, the bear market correction has ended and the bull has returned. I expected a recession by the year end, so we’ll see what happens then ( Double top? or break out and run?).
WTIC WEEKLY – We have our ICL in place and I believe that Oil has a significant Low in place too. It reversed off of the 200 week sma and the OPEC Production Cuts has added some strength to the move.
THE XOP is Bullishly pushing against resistance and once it breaks higher, I think that Oil stocks will continue to make gains.
APA WEEKLY – Some of these Oil stocks really sold off into the 2020 lows, and they’ve started to recover nicely, so take a look at APA. It ran $10 to $50 and has pulled back to $30 (now $40). So if you like the LONG TERM BUY AND HOLD style, a few Oil stocks that have made progress can be added with that Buy & Hold strategy.
The first bounce out of an ICL for The USD rallied strongly to the magenta trend line. Gold and the markets were selling off into an ICL. When the Banks failed, the USD dropped sharply from that line and each bounce since then has been very weak to the 8ema. Let’s zoom in…
THE USD only bounced to the 10sma during that first sell off, occasionally breaking above it. We now have a similar pattern with small bounces to the 10sma. AT this point the USD is so weak that it broke below the recent dcl AND the ICL. THIS is a big deal, because it should indicate that this is selling off for weeks / months (with occasional bounces).
.
And that is why I drew the red line pointing lower after it ‘Failed’. This should help the markets, Bitcoin, and Gold.
And as we’ve discussed before: The 3 year Cycle lows are very reliable for The USD. That next low really isn’t due until ‘Roughly’ Jan 2024, so we should continue to see the USD work its way lower.
..
GOLDs Big Picture has it very close to being at all-time highs again, and that can act as resistance, so we’ll see if it can just break out now and back test as a dcl, or does it needs a small rest. I think this depends on the USD too.
.
SILVER – The run for Silver has been straight up, and it has a peak on day 27. We should expect a dip into a dcl soon, but the USD has been having weak bounces and these markets have been very strong lately. The yellow line is the 10sma, and a dcl should break that line, so that is 1 thing to look for if it pulls back next week.
SILVER already has a bullish break out as shown last week.
The GDX Weekly Chart is running to the top of the channel, and it doesn’t have to stop there. People are finally catching on and when people or funds pile into Miners, they can move swiftly. We are only on month 4 of 2023, and the USD is not expected to bottom until Jan 2024, so I’m hoping that this runs for 8 more months 🙂
.
The markets have been a Big Picture Bullish set up for a long time now and that remains the case. It is buy the dip mode, and no doubt there will be dips as things unfold, but for now trying to at least hold a basket of Miners since they were at the 50sma has paid off. Crypto Miners are making huge gains too, so things are looking good for 2023, as long as that USD continues to seek out that 3 yr cycle low. Enjoy your weekend!
.
~ALEX
.
As mentioned above, that USD 3 yr cycle low really isn’t due until ‘Roughly’ Jan 2024, so we should continue to see the USD work its way lower. So…
So here I wanted to draw in where we might see Price drop to around that time. This is just an estimate based on the chart, but you can imagine that Gold, Silver, and The Miners should really prosper during that time.
I have been pointing out the bullish set up for BITCOIN too, and that continues to be the case. MARA, RIOT, HUT, CIFR, CLSK, BTBT, etc etc have made absolutely great gains.
I’ve been pointing out these stocks like MARA, RIOT, HUT, etc as being good daily gainers, but…
.
MARA was up 50% this week alone as it broke out! These are hard to buy and hold due to their choppiness, but when they run they really make up for it. Look at the upside potential too.
RIOT was also up bout 50% this week and ran $3 to $14, which is roughly 300-400%
Catch a lagger?
HUT was ‘Only’ up 27%, and look at the upside potential. You might just want to ‘Buy and Hold’ one or 2 of these if you are a longer term investor too.
