Wednesday December 2nd – They’re Jumping
THE SPX ran to new highs and then pulled back into the close. Is it time for a dip? I think that it could be…
1. I have a Put / Call Ratio reading that is usually found at tops and
2. A cycle count of day 47 of a possible 50+, So I would say we are due to dip into a dcl.
3. Add to that…
.
Along with this is the contrarian reading of Greed vs Bearishness at 93…
.
.
WTIC still looks like a Bull Flag is forming here. Wednesday is the weekly release of the Oil Inventory Report.
.
The XOP may be finding support at the 13 sma until Oils bull Flag breaks higher. Wednesday is the weekly release of the Oil Inventory Report.
.
APA, CPE, and a few other Oil Stocks look to be finding support at the 200sma as a back test. If this support gives way, price could drop to the 50sma.
.
GOLD #1 – We have a swing low late in the cycle count. This looks like the low ( DCL / ICL [?] ). The anomaly that took place on day 30 was disruptive & Puzzling to say the least, by making a new high on day 30 & breaking down from there. This is not a normal drop into an ICL, but if I count forward from the lowest recent low I get 45 days to this one and a swing low has formed. Also…
GOLD #2 – Gold broke below and then recaptured the 200sma as a shake out. In technical analysis we have a bullish descending wedge that is very oversold so this is a ‘buy set up’. It Should be the ICL since the last one was in March over 8 months ago. This is a Buy set up as it pushes above the 10sma & breaks the downtrend too.
OK, Silvers set up doesn’t make this any easier when it comes to an ICL.
.
SILVER did not break the September lows and that is a bit frustrating. THAT would indicate that the ICL for Silver was September. You will recall that I felt we had an ICL in September with Gold too. In September with Gold we got a trend line break, a close over the 10sma, and especially after seeing that day 30 (post Fed) break to new highs. Then GOLD rolled over to new lows and Miners did as well. Silver did not, so it makes this tricky. We are stuck with a very mixed picture.
.
YESTERDAY I USED THIS CHART TO MENTION THAT GDX BULLISHLY BROKE A DOWNTREND, AND THAT I’D BE WATCHING FOR A CLOSE OVER THE 10 & 200SMA AS A WAY TO ELIMINATE THIS AS A POSSIBLE BEAR FLAG. I ALSO DISCUSSED THAT GOLD WAS DOWN OVER $20+ FRIDAY & MONDAY WHILE MINERS BULLISHLY RESISTED THE SELLING. THIS IS WHAT I SAID…
.
DID GDX CLOSE OVER THE 10SMA & 200SMA? Yes it did, so that no longer resembles a bear flag. It also broke above that trend line Monday & the 200sma on Tuesday as a possible ‘shake out’ & recovery. This is a buy for the Miners.
GDX WEEKLY– I know that we have only had 2 trading days, but the reversal (Shake out?) is here and a stop under these lows is how to buy it & play it.
.
The General Markets are very bullish but at such greed levels they can pull back. We are due for a dip into a dcl at anytime. The Oil inventory reports are released on Wednesday, and Gold, Silver, and The Miners Are giving a buy signal.
.
Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
BTG – Many Miners also did the shake out at the 200sma, so you can look for that as an entry point.
YESTERDAYS REPORT : And then we look at some Miners like CDE with a nice long consolidation. This is great, since some are resisting the sell off to a degree, possibly because Silver hasn’t taken out the lows. You can see that after the smaller consolidations (See the Magenta and blue trend lines) we got a nice solid rally. Can you imagine the Rally that will follow this 4 month consolidation?
.
CDE WEEKLY – I would say that CDE could easily rally over 100% from here once it breaks free. $7 to $14 is easily possible. $7 to $21 is not out of the question.
CDE was up over 8% and trying to regain the 50 sma. I bought it again.
.
EXK jumped above its 50sma so its a buy. What about the gap that some of these left behind? It could fill on a back test of the 50sma later, but I would simply add there. It may NOT fill that gap and waiting for it to do so could leave you behind.
.
IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I WROTE: I own PLG, I put it in the reports last week and then I saw this weekly chart. It is up 13%, but I CANNOT express enough how Bullish this is in the long run! Look at that volume. If this pulls back next week, ADD or START A POSITION.
YESTERDAYs REPORT: PLG DAILY – I pointed out that a pull back would be a good buy. With that weekly set up, This is now in the ‘Buy the dips’ mode.
PLG DAILY – We got a spike higher that reversed, because it is extended. I’m not sure how far this will pull back, but a dip is a good place to add once it reverses again. Notice how PLG moved Up, then sideways, then Up, then sideways, etc. Some Miners may do this going forward too.
.
ELY GOLD lost both the 50 & 200 sma on this dip and was back under it after yesterday. It is actually right under the 50 & 200 sma. I would buy this here if you were looking for a smaller (royalty) company.
Many Miners are set up in a similar manner, since the selling was so prolonged and choppy. You can look to buy various Miners that lost and regained the 200sma, are closing above the 10sma, or breaking above a downtrend line. I will be putting more miners in the reports when they begin to pull back a bit too, but I wouldn’t wait for a pull back to start positions. If these gradually just pushed higher day by day, they could run away without offering another buy.
.
Let me point something out here with Hecla Mining:
.
HL – I can imagine a run higher to form a cup and handle, and then a solid ramp up from there. I wanted to point out that after an ICL the move can be straight up, but it ALSO can be choppy in the first daily cycle. Look at the red Arrows at previous ICLS and you’ll see a push higher and then some sideways chop instead of a straight up run for the first 3 months. This is where the handle could form. This is still a very bullish set up if a cup & Handle forms.
CHFS – I am seeing bullish looking moves in a few of the old Winners that we traded back when Covid was spreading rapidly earlier in 2020. CHFS, NOVN, BIOC, and RGLS are ones to keep an eye on, as well as INO, IBIO, DVAX, etc.
.
