Tuesday December 1st – Signs Along The Way
There are bullish ‘signs’ in the Precious Metals to report, but first we’ll cover the other sectors.
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THE SPX ( and the NASDAQ) dropped down and then bounced right off of the 13 sma. That is what I said I would look for since we are long here. So far it remains bullish.
WTIC is now chopping sideways a little, consolidating a solid month of gains. This is normal price action.
THE XOP had a quick drop Monday : The Drop in Oil stocks looks a bit exaggerated for a 1 day drop, so I am wondering if we might get a bit more than the quick reversal at the 10sma this time. We could get a 1/2 cycle low and that could dip a bit deeper than prior dips. I have drawn in a drop to the 34 sma as a visual, but I cannot tell for sure yet. I’m watching for a reversal. Lets look at a couple Oil Stocks.
So I was looking at APA:
1. The last drop that APA made to the 8 ema was also a sharp 1 day drop.
2. That drop was followed by 2 small green days, so we can watch and see if we get something similar here at support.
ERF dropped and did a gap fill to the 8 ema on light volume. It didn’t do a reversal or close off of the lows, so it really needs another day to be safe and see what it wants to do. 
Many of the Oil stocks acted this was ( MRO, LPI, VLO, CVI, etc), so I didn’t do any buying on this dip.
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IT IS WORTH REPEATING WHAT I WROTE IN THE WEEKEND REPORT:
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Gold and Silver have been selling off and are overdue for an ICL. It is noteworthy that Friday saw Gold down $20 and Silver down another 3%, yet Miners turned Green. I do think that the next swing low that breaks above the 10sma will be the Final low that we are waiting for. This is one of the longest Intermediate Cycles since the last one bottomed in March, so we could get a false drop but that is not necessary.
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GOLD MIDDAY MONDAY– On Monday morning Gold was down over $20+ and then started to do a reversal. When I captured this it was actually regaining the down trend line. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY – AS GOLD DROPPED MINERS RESISTED THE SELLING AND DID NOT BREAK THE LOWS.
Now we see that Gold dropped to new lows again and tagged the 50% line Monday before putting in a small reversal. We broke the 200sma last week and could be witnessing a shake out similar to what we had at the last crash ICL in March. Gold is quite oversold on the daily chart.
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SILVER did not break the lows from September yet, but it broke down from what may have looked like a Bullish triangle. This may be a shake out too. I HATE that it didn’t drop to the 200sma or break September lows yet, because it leaves that feeling that that still should be expected. As we watch this, many Miners are starting to act bullishly making Miners a difficult set up to buy. Let me zoom in on Silver…
SILVER has actually been chopping sideways and now has another reversal on Monday. It is also oversold.
I posted this chart in the live area around 2:40 p.m. You can see
1. The low was Wednesday of last week, despite Gold selling off last week and Monday
2. It is below the 10sma, but it did break a downtrend.
3. So this looks promising with Gold down over $20 both Friday and Monday.
I was asked: Do you recommend Buying? Let’s discuss that with GDX again.
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GDX closed at the highs of the day with Gold still down. That is encouraging. It is obvious that the Miners are resisting the selling in Gold if Gold sold down $20+ over the last 2 days. That said: Until this gets over the 10sma ( or 200sma) it may be a bear flag or trap, so patience or a Small start position is all that can be recommended safely.
Next I’ll review this again, it is something that I already have mentioned:
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Recently I showed a few charts where the selling definitely looks like an ICL sell off. Some Miners like this chart of Barrick ( pointed out on Nov 25th) shows that some Miners just sold off day after day for 2 weeks. $30 to $20 is no fun if your holding on to several of these. Next…
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And then we look at some Miners like CDE with a nice long consolidation. This is great, since some are resisting the sell off to a degree, possibly because Silver hasn’t taken out the lows. You can see that after the smaller consolidations (See the Magenta and blue trend lines) we got a nice solid rally. Can you imagine the Rally that will follow this 4 month consolidation?
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CDE WEEKLY – I would say that CDE could easily rally over 100% once it breaks free. $7 to $14 is easily possible. $7 to $21 is not out of the question. But will Silver break lows and have some Silver stocks shake out first? That is possible too. So can you buy? That is up to you!
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BTG DAILY – I see a Miner like BTG curling upward during the last 2 days of Gold selling and it also looks like accumulation. Buying this with a stop under the lows is ok, but this could be a bear flag. It just seems like if it was a bear flag it would have broken down with Gold down well over $20.
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NGD is actually a bullish looking set up because after a nice solid rally, it lost the 50sma and suddenly looks ready to try to re-gain it back already. This push higher happened as Gold sold off too.
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We do not have a ‘confirmed’ swing low in the Miners yet, but based on what I’m seeing I wouldn’t doubt that the lows are in place. I mentioned in the weekend report that it looked like Miners were holding up or possibly being accumulated as Gold sold off Friday, and then we saw it again Monday. Gold was down big Friday and Monday and Miners were green. I don’t like to ‘recommend’ buying until a confirmed swing low is in place, which includes GDX breaking above the 10sma & breaking a downtrend, but I personally would do a little buying under these circumstances. You can place a stop close by on the ones that are acting correctly.
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We also have plenty of other trades going on in all sectors, but I want to say that I am starting to close up EV trades. As I look at the pull backs in SOLO, BLNK, and a few others, I feel that they now may be ready for a more prolonged consolidation. We’ll see, but Biotech, MJ Stocks, Blockchain, and some of our Tech or Covid-proof general market trades like AMD, MU, TSEM, ETSY, ROKU, GME, and more are still looking strong.
Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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EDIT : GOLD AT 7 a.m. – I am seeing GOLD put in a swing low and also looks to be regaining the 200sma. It has not taken out the down trend yet to satisfy our cycle trade entry, but in Technical analysis you could buy with a stop under yesterdays lows.
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FGOVF – I was using this chart to show that as Gold sells off, I am seeing some higher volume days with reversals. This can indicate minimal selling due to accumulation. FREEGOLD VENTURES has not broken the Oct lows.
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MAXN – I mentioned in the live area that I was selling a ‘good chunk’ of my MAXN after an excellent run. I bought this rather heavy after they released earnings and it dropped to the 50sma & reversed. It ran from under $18 to $27.25 in 4 days. I am in the habit of locking in gains if I see a reason too, and I will look to re-enter at $20 as shown if possible.
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I WROTE: I own PLG, I put it in the reports last week and then I saw this weekly chart. It is up 13%, but I CANNOT express enough how Bullish this is in the long run! Look at that volume. If this pulls back next week, ADD or START A POSITION.
PLG DAILY – No pull back yet and PLG ran higher Monday. With that weekly set up and this follow through, This is now in the ‘Buy the dips’ mode.
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From last week I posted SBSW – To be clear, you can buy a dip anywhere within this Bullish triangle consolidation, you can buy a break out.
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WWR – I have been pointing out WWR since the 50sma was at $3.80. It is still slowly making progress at $6.50 and has great upside potential. I still own it as it crawls along the 8 ema.
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NVAX was a Buy and I mentioned that I am thinking that many Biotech or Covid testing / vaccine stocks can start running again with the ‘surge’ in Covid happening in many places. So this was the Buy at $100…
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NVAX – Suddenly NVAX is at the $150 area, BNTX, MRNA, COCP, etc are all blasting off higher. NVAX can form a complete cup and it can also keep going like MRNA & MNTX have.
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MRNA & BNTX have been running strong to new highs so you may want to hold NVAX and let it run. AND…
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DVAX & INO were in the weekend report with these next 2 charts:
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DVAX Actually looks JUST LIKE NVAX did as it broke out too (midday Friday), so I grabbed this chart too. It closed pennies higher so DVAX can still be bought. All of a sudden the Covid Stocks are breaking out again as the spread is increasing.
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INO This is also a Covid company and it is a Buy too. This can double or triple if it runs like it did the first time and Covids second surge seems to be on the run.
MARA DAILY – For those still holding MARA & RIOT, they were up big yesterday. MARA was up almost 50% Monday alone as BITCOIN hit new all time highs. I feel that this is too extended to ‘enter’ a new position up here, since a pull back can happen along the way, but…
MARA WEEKLY – You can see the long term chart. Lets look at RIOT.
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RIOT WEEKLY – Riot was up 35% Monday alone too and volume is excellent. I do want to point out the circle on the Left Side of the chart. It just shows in the past that before the massive ramp up higher we saw a multi week pull back to the 200 week ma. The ride isn’t always easy, but it has been extremely rewarding. We were buying this in the $3-$4 area and it is heading to $10 pretty quickly. I received emails from a few that are still doing very well here. Congrats!
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I mentioned that I bought FTFT, also on my Blockchain list with MARA, RIOT, GROW, HVTF, SI, etc. I love a nice long consolidation and would love to see a break out & run with FTFT too. I cannot tell if Bitcoin is going to keep running or put a handle / consolidation in, but these block chain stocks can still benefit during a normal consolidation.
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FTFT WEEKLY The Longer Term potential is also very promising here, but I’ll take it one step at a time. If Bitcoin does a big pullback along with other Crypto currencies, These (FTFT, RIOT, MARA, etc) may continue to pop & chop. This also can do what Riot did – a run from $3 to $9.
CBDS NOV 25: In Fridays report I posted A Daily and a Weekly chart of CBDS -This was a candidate to pop with this bullish set up. I mentioned that it was similar to MRMD, which popped over 100%.
CBDS moved 25% higher Monday. CBDS, MRMD, CNBX, LBUY, etc moved right after I called them a Buy in the Base. Very nice. I have had a few people mention that they cannot buy OTC Stocks ( Over The Counter) due to restrictions by their broker . To start with – Change your brokers 🙂 However…
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CANF DAILY – This trades on AMX and it is popping and dropping conspicuously. It can be bought hereunder $2 and…
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CANF WEEKLY – This also has Major Potential if this sector remains Bullish. This sector seems to be strongly responding to the Biden Win in the US Elections. Also…
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OGI WEEKLY – While TLRY, CGC, ACB, etc may seem extended on their daily charts, OGI does not. It also trades on the NASDAQ and can be bought here. A small position as a BUY & HOLD or SWING TRADE can pay off nicely once these get going.
