Thursday October 15th – The Mixed Picture
I made a mistake in Yesterdays report when I mentioned that Wednesday is The Oil inventory Report release day. It is, except when we have a holiday on Monday. The markets were open on Monday, so I forgot that we had a holiday that day. That pushes the report ahead one day, so The Oil Inventory Report is scheduled to be released Today, Thank You Eric, for kindly reminding me of that in an email. 😎
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YESTERDAY I SAID: NADSAQ – We may see further selling that gives us something like this (if the selling continues). A gap fill and drop to the 10sma.
NASDAQ – So we had another day of selling, but that gap is still open and we didn’t touch the 10sma. That means that we may continue to see this choppy selling, as drawn on this chart, Cup & Handle style. If this is a first daily cycle, it should hold up though.
WTIC – Oil is pushing against the upper resistance, so lets see what that Oil Inventory Report can do here.
The XOP pushed higher in the morning too, but this chart was taken Midday. I said that I would like to see XOP push through that 34 sma, and it then sold off back down to the lows and closed down there. So this is what I am looking at for the XOP. Price is squeezed between the 10 & 34 sma. I am not trading the Oil Sector right now.
The USD pulled back a bit, so Guess what Gold did? Yes, it popped. The USD is still oversold and should have a dcl, so I expect it to move higher, and this could weigh on Gold.
GOLD – The USD slid down and Gold pushed higher. If the USD runs higher, and it should, Gold can still roll over and drop into a more meaningful low ( ICL). It is just mind boggling that some Miners are doing so well! Like ‘all time highs’ kind of good.
SILVER has been chopping higher from its lows too, but so far volume is mild and price remains under the 50sma. Silver is already at the lows of this channel so any further selling may break it down.
GDX – At 11 a.m. eastern I captured this chart just to point out that we are seeing Miners make new daily cycle highs on day 14 as it pushes back above that 50sma. Did it close above the 50 sma?
GDX did sell off a bit but still closed above the 50sma. It just seems very odd to see Miners act this way if this is a final weak 5th daily cycle. Yesterday I showed several Miners that were acting quite bullishly too…
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Yesterday I showed several Miners that were acting quite bullishly too, like BTG, EGO, RGLD, MGMLF. I saw more of the same taking place on Wednesday…
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AAGFF – I have own aftermath Silver in a longer term account and it broke from a consolidation this week too. This looks like it just wants to run away, but if it dips back down it may be a great opportunity to buy or add. I can see that dip possibly happening this way…
AAGFF already had a strong rally that sold off in August, so I can picture some of these current rallies selling back into consolidation if Gold does drop with a USD run. It will basically provide one more buying opportunity before the next run.
DNCVF – After a long September to October sell off, Defiance Silver started to run this week too. In just 4 days it regained the 3 weeks of loss and it broke out to new highs on Wednesday. So if Gold did sell off into an ICL in a week or so, this may just return to the 34 sma again as a buying opportunity.
VNNHF was mentioned yesterday and it continued to push higher Wednesday to all time highs. So again I am thinking that if Gold itself still has an ICL ahead, these flyers would simply drop back to support as a buy opportunity.
EGO was also pointed out in yesterdays report and it did not pause yesterday either. After a 3 day ICL looking crash in September, EGO just took off higher and never slowed down.
TDRRF – Not all of the smaller ones are just taking off higher, as seen here with Tudor Gold. Several are forming constructive consolidations though.
AUY OCT 9th – I pointed out the break of the trend line in AUY recently and
AUY WEEKLY OCT 9th – With AUY at $6.17 I showed how the weekly chart looks bullish too, but…
AUY is actually still at $6.17 today. This does still look Bullish above the 50sma, but it hasn’t just blasted higher yet, so we’ll see what happens if gold dips down again.
USAS – American Silver has not exactly blasted off higher either. Notice that it was at the absolute lows just last week, but this DOES look quite bullish this week as it pushed up 7% Wednesday and tried to take on the 50sma. With Gold & Silver down in Premarket, I’ll be watching stocks like this to see if they follow the metals lower or continue higher, because this actually looks like a bullish set up to me at this point.
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EDIT: In pre-market I see pretty much everything red and pulling back, so I’ll be watching that gap fill & 10 sma for the General Markets as possible place for a reversal ( see the chart below) . This mornings sell off in the futures includes Gold & Silver. Remember that we saw Gold drop $30 earlier this week and the Miners basically dipped and then shook it off. Today will give us another chance to see how Miners as a group ( GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) or as individuals will act as Gold & Silver sells off again.
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When I see a sell off like this and I have been looking to enter a trade or two that moved higher without me, I usually won’t buy the dip until I see a reversal at support or a sign of strength. That can happen in 1 day or it may take 2 or 3 to see how things are shaking out. For those that are already long, it may be a red day, at least in the morning. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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SOLO was a buy in a recent report. Electric Vehicles have been doing very well this year and we have traded several for good gains ( NIO, WKHS, SPAQ, etc). NIO was up 23% yesterday, I’ll discuss that after SOLO.
SOLO started to move with good volume Wednesday morning, so I posted this in the live area below the report. It was up a little over 2% here…
SOLO then shot up 20% and closed up 16%, putting solo up 25% this week alone. This can pull back with the markets down in pre-market, but I also feel that it can double over time as it tries to move back to the July highs. This could drift back to the 50sma and then move higher, since they do often Pop & Drop. That might be a place to Buy or Add to position. Is it normal to Pop & Drop and still remain bullish?
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Is it normal to Pop & Drop and still remain bullish? Yes, just take a look at NIO.
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NIO was a buy for us in August near $14 and again in September near $18, but it would POP and chop in consolidations often, making it a rough ride. I owned it and used this chart to show a possible break out after the consolidation in September.
We got the break out to $22 and another smaller tighter consolidation started, so I drew this possible drop and then a Pop. Well it did not drop…
NIO did not drop, it simply Popped from here yesterday. See the next chart…
For those still holding NIO: NIO has a tendency to Pop straight up for a couple days and then consolidate for weeks. In other words, most of the gains for NIO are made in 2 or 3 days of the break out, as seen here. It is a bull, so you can just hold on for the long run, or you can try to trade out when it consolidates & get back in.
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BLNK reversed off of the 50sma and shot up Wednesday. BLNK goes along with Elec Vehicles and I did own this one in the past too. It looks bullish and easy to ride, but it really was choppy at times too, so be prepared for that if you enter the trade.
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NETE also has an Elec Vehicle and it popped Yesterday. Here it was up 11%, but it closed up 20%. It can run back to $20 over time if the sector remains bullish, but it may be hard to enter since it is already up 20, HOWEVER…
NETE – I noticed that in the past it would POP and then pull back or chop back down to the 10sma. If it pulls back or you see this kind of chop, that may offer an easier entrance near the 10sma. I would wait for a reversal at support though.
BIDU is a bullish set up that is breaking from a base. I have also been watching JRJC, KNDI , and a few others that are bullishly set up. I actually owned KNDI & just sold it, but it looks like it can go much higher.
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RIOT By Request: Riot has held up above the 50sma, the selling volume was lighter than the buying volume, so it appears to still be acting correctly. This CAN actually lose the 50sma and drop to the 10sma and still be fine, but hopefully it just holds up here.
