Thursday October 1
October already?!! Wow, so hard to believe! Well the opening Theme Picture is what it looks like around the North Eastern part of the US at this time of year. It can be very beautiful until its time to clean up. 🙂
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As for the General Markets, we were still waiting to see if the SPX & NASDAQ could get above the 50 sma.
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NASDAQ 10:30 a.m. – The markets were pushing higher & moved above the 50 sma, so I captured this chart in the first hour of trading.
SPX – As you can see, they sold off into the close, but this is not overly concerning at this time. In fact, it still closed above the 50 sma and volume increased. I’d still expect higher price, but we always use stops for safety and unwanted surprises.
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WTIC – Oil pushed higher after the Oil Inventory report release, but…
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As I have been mentioning, the XOP / XLE are still moving lower. I see a descending Bull wedge, so this may break higher soon, but I still do not like the looks of MRO, LPI, VLO, etc., so I am not interested in this sector yet.
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YESTERDAY USING THIS CHART I DISCUSSED GOLDS COUNT AND INABILITY TO CROSS THE 10SMA. A cross of the 10sma would be a small sign of strength and help to possibly confirm a dcl. If we do not have a dcl, then Wednesday would be day 35 . Did Gold break higher on Wednesday?
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GOLD still did not close above the 10sma. This chart was captured at midnight Eastern time Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
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SILVER also stalled at the 10sma. This is also from Midnight.
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So I drew this and said : Let’s just keep this in the back of our minds, in case we suddenly see some selling take place: We do not actually have a cross of the 10sma yet. For years Gold drops on the week of the Chinese Golden holiday ( because China stops buying Gold) . That comes next week. We could, maybe, possibly—get an ICL from a continuation drop next week as shown here closer to day 40.
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GDX also is being rejected at the 10sma, so we need more time to see if this can break higher too. I also …
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I also charted GDX with the possibility of a drop during the Chinese Golden Holiday this way…
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GDX – I wanted to point out that if we do not have a dcl in place here and we drop into next week, that could be a normal pull back to 38 or 50% in a Bull Market too. The recent selling has been very mild really.
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So we are still waiting for the Precious Metals to make up its mind (direction), but the General Markets have bottomed for now and several trades are playing out nicely in Tech and Solar. I will briefly discuss a couple of things in that area below.
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Let’s see what the first day of October brings our way, enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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EDIT: GOLD has crossed the 10 sma this morning. This makes it even more likely that a dcl is in place. It is likely to form as left translated and eventually drop into an ICL.
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SWIR – I pointed out the reversal after a gap fill in SWIR as a low risk buy point.
SWIR is slowly climbing away, but even now it may not be too late to enter (Especially if it dips to the 10sma) or add to the starter position.
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MRNA released good results in their vaccine testing, and popped nicely. Even though that Pop then sold down to the 50sma, I think this will just be a 50sma back test & it should reverse higher. If so, one could add to the current position.
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We rode BNTX higher during the June -July run, but then it suddenly dropped. It has consolidated and looks ready again too.
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BNTX is also working on Covid Vaccine and I like this set up now too. I would buy & add if it gets above the 50 sma, but some that may be more conservative may want to wait and see if it CAN get above the 50sma and buy that break out. It does look good though, the MACD & RSI turned bullish.
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I bought JD near the open and grabbed this chart at 9:48 as it stayed above the 10sma. This set up is very similar to the SPWR, CSIQ, SEDG, AMD type of consolidations . I like to buy as they break the downtrend and gain the 10sma. They then often form a cup as they run to recent highs and can even break out & run higher. So…
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So this was the AMD set up as a buy on Sept 29, and …
AMD 1 day later and it has stalled , so it is still a buy. What am I expecting from the AMD & JD buy patterns?…
Something similar to what we are getting from our SPWR & CSIQ Plays. See also SEDG.
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SIDE NOTE:
SPWR – At times a ‘Cup’ will form a ‘handle’ or it can just break out & run. With SPWR you’ll see that as it breaks to new highs, sellers often sell a little and it often ‘stalls’ and then runs. I just wanted to point that out here in case we stall in CSIQ or SPWR at the new highs. It can still break higher & run further.
