Friday October 9th – More Signs Of Life?
THE SPX saw more follow through on Thursday and we have a day 10 new high. The set up is bullish and price should continue higher.
WTIC was up 3% and this started looking bullish again. Let’s zoom in…
You can see that it has not only closed above the 200 sma, but also closed above the 50 sma. If Oil continues higher, this is a bullish set up. What about the Oil stocks that we have been discussing?
YESTERDAY I WROTE: EMAIL: “If this is a dcl in Oil stocks, can I buy them?” My answer is “Yes, you can buy them with a stop under the reversal low, but with this chop & indecision, it may remain difficult, but that is your choice. ” NOTE: I am wondering if the Oil Stocks will have put in an ICL with the General Markets though. Time will tell on that one. Let’s take a look…
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XOP – Oil stocks actually moved higher and this could be a dcl, but was THIS an ICL with the General Markets? Are these following the General Market more than Oil? At this point, I can’t tell. I drew a weaker daily cycle here. Like I said, this reversal low COULD be bought, but it may or may not really make good gains if it isn’t an ICL.
XOP YESTERDAY actually closed up 4% and looks to have broken a down trend line. A break of a downtrend is a buy in Technical analysis, so I am seriously wondering if the lows are in for now. We do see overhead resistance and the ride higher can be choppy, but I’m watching to see if Oil stocks increase in Bullishness- especially now that Oil broke higher.
THE USD is still chopping sideways above the 50 sma. I’m looking for the USD to put in a dcl, and I have discussed that that dcl & following bounce should dip Gold down further, but Gold started to look Bullish yesterday…
Gold started to look Bullish yesterday…
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GOLD – I would say that this needs to be monitored closely. Miners are not really acting Bullishly, most are chopping sideways like Gold, but GOLD IS AT THE DOWNTREND LINE. IF Gold breaks higher it is Bullish to me and I will need to look closely at what we have here. Today (Friday) I will be watching to see if Miners represented by GDX & GDXJ turn higher and look stronger too.
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GOLD – I zoomed in and I noticed that the MACD is actually crossing higher too. This really is starting to stealthily look Bullish, it doesn’t match what I would expect if the USD is going to put in a dcl & Bounce higher.
So let me show you one more thing I usually look for with a GOLD ICL that I am not seeing.
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GOLD ICL – Even with a mild ICL, Gold will usually (and I mean almost Always ) get that stochastics down into oversold territory by tagging the 30 area on a weekly chart. I would say that we are 2+ weeks away from that. Well, the last CRASH In March didn’t get us there, and we are in the area that the crash put us in at the last ICL- so I am paying attention going forward.
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SILVER s MACD is starting to cross up too. This set up could be
1. Bullish as a higher 2nd low above the 10sma, or
2. It could resemble a bear flag,
but it does look bullish and a push higher will eventually negate the bear flag look.
To be honest, GDX on day 10 does not look as bullish as Gold or Silver, but it is a higher low on day 8 and THINGS CAN CHANGE. The drop that GDX & GDXJ took Tuesday looked ugly and very weak. Now on day 10 GDX tried to close above the 10sma. Lets see what Friday brings for the Miners. WHAT IF GOLD DECIDES TO JUST BREAK HIGHER AND WE HAVE TO CALL THIS A STEALTH ICL IN GOLD? …
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SAME CHART GDX: IF GOLD DECIDES TO JUST BREAK HIGHER AND WE HAVE TO CALL THIS A STEALTH ICL IN GOLD, you can see that you haven’t missed the rally. When an ICL (Low) is in place, you can buy miners and ride them for 3+ months on average, and so far this has just chopped sideways.
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I do not own any Miners. I have been Viewing this choppy weakish look as a final daily cycle that would drop into an ICL as the daily cycle gets older. I have expected the USD to bounce soon, and so far the Precious Metals have been acting inversely to the USD. With that thinking, I have been trading other areas, but now I am going to start watching Miners like NEM, AUY, IAG, AEM, NG, etc for signs of strength or not.
If YOU want to buy a Miner or a few Miners or an ETF, you simply do what was mentioned at the dcl earlier. You buy with a stop under recent lows. If you were going to buy SILJ for example, it would look like this. It would be a shame to get stopped out & then have to rebuy if an ICL just reverses off of the 200sma, but these are the rules that we play with. You may decide to just ride it out knowing that it will recover after an ICL, but leverage & being heavily positioned can psychologically be tough.
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So we are seeing gradual change with a couple of sectors that have been weak and choppy at the lows ( Oil Stocks and Miners). I’m not seeing any big change with GDX, but GOLD & SILVER have bullish macds and a few other bullish signs popping up. Watch for GOLD to break that downtrend, and see if the miners react bullishly. That can be a buy for Gold, and maybe it’ll resist the USD or get choppy?
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Time will tell, enjoy your Friday trading & enjoy your upcoming weekend!
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~ALEX
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MORE SIGNS OF LIFE?
BITCOIN popped and 2 of my favorite trades perked up too: MARA & RIOT .
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This now looks like a possible inverse H&S (not drawn on the chart) and it has been riding along the 9 sma. The good thing for me was that they Popped & Dropped. They both still closed near the lows or near the 9sma, so I took start positions. I can actually use the more recent lows or higher low as a stop, but I may just let it ride for a bit and I will add if it continues to show progress.
RIOT popped and only sold 1/2 way off but I still decided to get a starter position. Now I just look for some follow through. I bought the last POP over the 50sma near Sept 16 & got stopped out when it lost the 50sma, so that was dissapointing, but this looks good and does have nice volume. Also I sold some of my recent trades like my SPWR 2 days ago for excellent gains and sold all my other solars to lock in gains yesterday too, as they all started to pull back. I sold WWR & OPTT for big gains, so I have cash to deploy that is all profit in a few starter positions without considering it a huge risk. With those gains adding a small starter position here is not something that I have to worry about too much if it just wiggles around, but I will still have stops in place because these can drop or pop swiftly. Both MARA & RIOT had a nice pop in volume.
I was posting in the live area that the MJ stocks, which can move Very Quickly, were popping too. This is the ETF and it was also higher, now pushing on the 50sma which has bearishly curled lower. I’ll be watching this sector, but look up charts of CRON, CGC, TLRY, VFF, APHA, ACB, etc etc They all had a bullish POP at the same time. I will post 2 of those charts below.
I will post 2 of those charts below.
TLRY looks to be turning bullish. Watch that trend line.
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CGC – also a higher low and a bullish break through the Moving averages.
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