Friday October 16th
IN A PRIOR REPPORT: THE NADSAQ – I mentioned on Oct 13th that we may see further selling. It could look something like this giving us a gap fill and drop to the 10sma.
NADSAQ 9:52 a.m. – Within the first 1/2 hour we had a gap fill and a drop near the 10sma with a reversal, so I posted this in the live trading area below the report.
NADSAQ CLOSE – This could be the 1/2 cycle dip so it is a good place to add to your position and use a tight stop for the new entry. You can add to TQQQ, SOXL, or even your ‘long’ positions / stocks like AAPL, NFLS, TSEM, and so on. Let me show you more…
.
TSEM – Tower Semiconductor was recommended with CREE, AMD, MU, etc as a semiconductor play. This back test to support & reversal can be where you ‘add’ and use a tighter stop on this addition.
AS A REMINDER, CREE was a semiconductor buy…
CREE, JBL, MU, AMD have been acting bullishly. TSEM is in the same sector, so it may also make the run next.
WTIC – Oil dropped in the morning and then recovered pretty strongly by the end of the day. So far it is choppy and sideways, but does look promising here. What about the Oil Stocks?
XOP – These are finally shaping up as possible Bullish bases. This reversal at the 10sma as a higher low would make GUSH a buy with a tight stop. Several of the OIL stocks that I watch also look to be shaping up.
This double bottom with divergence in APA for example is an easy buy with a stop under recent lows. That makes it Low risk/ High reward if you like this sector. ERF, WTI, LPI, MRO, and others also reversed yesterday and are also looking more bullish.
USD – I have been expecting the USD to put in a dcl and then make another run higher. We have that low in place and the USD pushed higher Thursday. Did Gold drop?
.
I was expecting Gold to drop when the USD popped, but Gold actually resisted the USD pop. THAT IS INTERESTING when we consider the recent set up and how we have been viewing things. I will need to keep an eye on this relationship going forward, because it can clear up the recent mixed picture that we have been discussing. All things considered, I will post 2 charts of Gold that show I feel this could be playing out. I will discuss more in the weekend report, since we still have a mixed view or 2 different possibilities for Gold.
.
GOLD #1 – Currently we are seeing Gold in another choppy daily cycle. As Gold chops sideways, we are seeing most Miners hold up, but we are also seeing some Miners break to new highs as Gold chops around. That is uncommon for a final daily cycle. I also mentioned that a break of that downtrend can indicate that an ICL is in place. So now that Gold ignored the USD POP, I can picture Gold possibly just being choppy with a strong dollar & an ICL could be in place.
.
With the Miners showing strength while Gold chops sideways, it has me thinking that we could see Miners acting independently, even if Gold chops sideways in a final daily cycle and THEN a short quick slam down into an ICL could still happen. How might that look?
.
GOLD #2 – I am picturing Gold just chopping sideways in the same manner as the last daily cycle for weeks. That daily cycle then ended with a quick sharp 3-4 day drop. We could see Miners holding up & some even rally as Gold chops sideways, and then when it drops into an ICL, those Miners may simply back test (as a buy opportunity or a place to ‘add’ to position).
GDX – So far we have a peak on day 14 and GDX does seem too strong to be a final daily cycle. Some Miners like EGO are just blasting off higher like they are running straight up & out of an ICL, others are lingering behind.
.
I mentioned that owning a small basket of Miners should be fine and you can then add on a dip or use stops. If you think that an ICL could be in place you can add leverage, but if we get a final drop, that can get quite uncomfortable. The good news is that we have had a very mixed picture, but it does look like it will clear up over time. The first step was the USD putting in that dcl and Gold ignoring the USD progress. That leans more toward a stealth Low in place for Gold, matching the action that we see in some of the stronger Miners.
.
I’ll discuss all of this further with the weekend report. At this time it looks like we have
– A reversal near support for the General Markets.
– Oil & The XOP have become somewhat bullish, but remain near the lows and choppy.
– Gold finally resisted the USD pop, we’ll see if that continues. Gold moving above the 50 sma would be quite Bullish. Some Miners are holding up and others have rallied here and there, so buying with a stop was seen as a possibility in case we are just seeing a choppy first daily cycle.
.
Enjoy your Friday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
APPL – Recently I have been showing stocks like Apple as a buy. How does it look with the pull back over the past 3 days?
APPL did break out and has back tested. If you missed that first buy, this is a 2nd chance. If you caught that buy and it Popped, this is a good place to add.
.
I am showing APPL, but many of the recent Buys have back tested or pulled back to the 10sma, so that is a place that you can add with a tighter stop. That includes MSFT, NFLX, APPS, AMD, MU, etc. I will also show MARA & RIOT examples below..
.
BITCOIN : I captured this chart on Friday 6 a.m. Eastern Time: Bitcoin looks like it could drop to the lower trend line or chop sideways. A drop to the lower trend line might affect RIOT & MARA in the short term, causing a pull back. Yesterday both MARA & RIOT pulled back , but I thought that they acted bullishly, so let’s take a look.
.
.
MARA 2:27 p.m – Yesterday we saw Mara & Riot drop at the open but claw their way back into the end of the day. With Bitcoin dropping, we might see that again. I think that reversals like this are low risk entries or a good place to add to current positions, since you can put a stop under the 10sma.
RIOT 10:19 a.m. – Within the first hour of trading I posted this in the live area and mentioned that a close above this $3.24 area would be encouraging , placing Riot above the 50sma. Riot did actually close at $3.40
RIOT Intraday – I also posted this chart to show the down trend line that Riot would break if it closed above the $3.35 area. RIOT DID CLOSE AT $3.40
