Wednesday September 30th – See Beyond Today
IN YESTERDAYS REPORT I MENTIONED: Both the NASDAQ and the SPX are facing the 50 sma as their next resistance overhead. We will begin to see whether this daily cycle is going to be strong after this consolidation or have the markets weakened.
Both the NASDAQ & The SPX stalled t the 50 sma, but…
SOX -The semiconductors often lead the markets, and they broke above the 50sma, so I view this as a possible bullish sign. We’ll see if the other indexes follow this week.
WTIC -Oil dropped away from the 50 sma and lost the 200 sma. Since WEDNESDAY is the release of the oil inventory report, we’ll see if Oil just sells off or not from here. Selling from here could get ugly over time. Oil daily cycles can be 50 days +, and this is only about day 15. That would mean that Oil could chop & drop for 7 more weeks if the September lows are taken out ( 35 trading days)? So…
,
Some of my favorite ‘gainers’ out of the March lows like APA, MRO, AROC, etc are rolling over.
The good news? Various Oil Stocks that ran out of the lows from $4 to $17 and $2 to $8, and so on. When they bottom again, we may grab some of these again for 100-500% gains if they are not going BK by then. This oil company Apache Corp, for example, could lead to a double bottom.
This was a bit tough to Explain?
.
Oddly enough: USEG ( Oil & Gas) was up 250% at one point. MXC was up 50% at one point ( Oil and Gas) . HUSA ( Nat Gas and Oil ) was up 500%+! WHAT?? And there were several more too. GBR, VOC, GEVO, etc.
,
.
USEG popped from $4 to $18 and then dropped to $6.77, still up 55%. Crazy moves.
.
GOLD has not moved above the 10sma yet, to confirm the swing low as a dcl. If this is a DCL followed by a final daily cycle, it could be just a weak bounce that meanders around and then rolls over. A drop into the ICL could follow in the next Daily Cycle. I want to mention another idea to keep an eye on.
.
Let’s just keep this in the back of our minds, in case we suddenly see some selling take place: We do not actually have a cross of the 10sma yet. For years Gold drops on the week of the Chinese Golden holiday ( because China stops buying Gold) . That comes next week. We could, maybe, possibly—get an ICL from a continuation drop next week as shown here. Let me zoom in…
A drop that lasts for another week is still within the parameters for a daily cycle drop into an ICL.
.
IF WE SEE GOLD START TO SELL OFF, we will not panic, we will rejoice. An ICL could follow.
.
I zoomed in and drew up a 2nd Gold chart, just to make sure that I get the day count correct while showing that drop. I apparently missed a small candle or 2 on the other chart, so here is the 2nd one that is a bit easier to see 🙂 Today would be day 35 if a DCL is not in place.
.
SILVER -At this point Silver also has not regained the 10sma.
GDX is also still under the 10sma. I do think that GDX needs some strength to get above this resistance area, and yes that can happen. It happened at the last DCL when suddenly GDX gapped up big time above the 10 sma, so we’ll see how this week continues to play out.
.
GDX – I wanted to point out that if we do not have a dcl in place here and we drop into next week, that would be a normal pull back in a Bull Market too. The recent selling has been very mild really.
.
AG – I remember when Sprott announced buying AG and everyone thought that it would just take off because of that. So far it is one of the weaker Miners out there, still at the recent lows.
The Miners aren’t all weak though. NG is already back up near the prior highs, so we have a mixed picture, even this late in the intermediary cycle. It is also important to note that NG didn’t rally in June-August like other miners, it lagged at the lows and is playing catch up. Different Miners may act on their own at any time, but the majority will follow the metals.
.
LGDTF – I grabbed this chart midday because I actually think that this set up is bullish & constructive. It may just continue to consolidate in this box, but volume was strong and it is pushing on the 50sma.
.
– So I am thinking that the general Markets should be able to get back over the 50 sma , since the Semiconductor index has lead the way. It may take some time to get over that resistance area.
– Oil dropped and today is the Oil Inventory report, so I do want to see what happens there. Some fo the bigger Oil companies are rolling over, several of the small companies experienced possible short covering rallies? I dont really know what happened to those stocks that were up 50-500%.
– Finally we get to the Precious Metals. A swing low has formed that has stalled & turned lower at the 10sma. Price can still break above that 10sma and confirm the dcl here, marking day 33 as the dcl , but if it rolls over? We do always see a period of weakness around that Chinese holiday week that is coming up, so I drew a ‘continuation’ of the sell off that could possibly lead to an ICL in this same extended daily cycle. These are areas are that I will be watching going forward.
.
Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
BYND BY REQUEST – “I bought near the bottom of the cup when recommended, do I sell it here?”. Please read the chart, take note of the volume, and I’ll do a brief review.
In mid-September BYND was pointed out as possibly starting to form a cup as it chopped along the 50sma, so it was a buy, however…
I used this chart on September 10th to show that BYND can break higher and continue to run if the General Markets stay bullish. I was looking for 100% gains to $240, so I would hold it. If you are heavily invested, you can always scalp some gains and let the rest ride.
.
AMD looks like a BUY set up to me. AMD has been a very bullish stock in the Bull market, but it should be bought with a stop and this is why…
MU came out with Earnings Tuesday after hrs. It actually shot up for a while and lingered at $52, but then it sold off to the $48 area. I drew that path here, so MU should gap down Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean that it will keep selling off. The question is ‘WILL THAT AFFECT AMD?’ We’ll see. As for MU? It may now do a gap fill to the 50 sma.
.
MRNA was recommended recently and it may gap open, since it shot up $4 after hours after releasing a positive news headline, see the chart. It has gained the 50 sma.
NIO – The Tesla of China has been recommended here a few times and has been a bullish runner. This set up looks ready to break out again within the first 1/ hr of trading, and I posted this in the live area. It was up 4% with good volume for a 1/2 hr. The volume didnt show on this chart yet…
NIO closed the day up 11% with a volume pop.
CLDX – I just think that if we don’t see a surge of volume soon on this break out, we’ll drift back and put on a high handle/back test. I am basing this on past experience, since this has happened to me several times in the past after a break out. It isn’t a bad thing, I just want people to be prepared for that pull back if it happens. CLDX could revisit $14 or $13. If that happens, that would also be a buy for those not yet in it.
APPS did a pull back / back test and this is a decent place to add. The set up remains bullish.
I just want to mention this again:
.
This was written in yesterdays report…
CARV has a long consolidation after a huge move in June. This stock has been Popping & chopping these past 2 days, so I am keeping my eye on it. Yesterday it went from Under $6 to over $7 in the first hour. It has BIG SWINGS ( $5.95 to $7.47).
CARV (By the way , this is a tad bit of a higher risk trade set up with these big swings) I think that this & other set ups like it could eventually launch higher from the consolidations. The swings are very big and hard to ride. Tuesday also saw this go from $6.30 to $7.75. I bought it because that was a drop to the 50 sma at $6.30 & reversal. I think this can run BIG if if if it gets the right catalyst. And…
.
IN YESTERDAYS REPORT: KNDI – I have traded this one in the past and it can move quickly. It has also popped from $5 to $7 recently, and dropped back down. As a day trader ( Scalper), you can put this on a watch list and use intraday charts to scalp trade if it continues to react to the market action.
KNDI ( Chinese Elec car / Battery sector) was up another 8% and struggled with the 50sma. Volume increased, the RSI crossed 50 and the MACD looks to be crossing. I bought this under $7 too, simply because I think this could easily run higher from this set up.
UONE is another example of the same kind of set up that CARV, KNDI, and several other companies are forming. I made very strong gains in many ‘flat base set ups’ that popped in April -June, and these may be setting up again.
.
I always like to at least place out the disclaimer that: These are basically trades for experienced traders. SMALL STARTER POSITIONS are a way that I control risk, and I can add as they move higher.
.
– These set ups are not always easily traded, but they can produce 100% gains, so each person needs to decide if this is their kind of trading style or not. If you BUY & HOLD, you can also rack up losses by holding these too long. For example: We traded HTBX, CHFS, NOVN, BIOC, RGLS, NAKD, MYSZ, etc, and many others and made big gains as they ran higher, but I did point out that we were trading the ‘set up’ for a move higher. I mentioned how I try to sell on the way up & lock in some big gains. Holding on too long can be painful and lead to losses. Lets look at a chart…
.
Some told me that they are still holding HTBX or NOVN, or CHFS, and ask , “Will they recover”? Sure, they might actually recover over time, and some are even popping and setting up a higher low now, but this was not the original purpose of the trade. When I point out a ‘trade set up’ like KNDI, CARV, UONE, etc —THESE are also not intended to be long term BUY & HOLD set ups- they are shorter term swing trades. Sell that big run up if we get it and then you can always buy again later if it drops and sets up again.
So when I point out CARV, KNDI, UONE, etc- they are trades with stops and you sell if they Pop and sell if they drop. It is also smart to look up the companies website and see when they plan to release earnings, etc.
