Tuesday September 29th
The SPX broke the downtrend & closed above the 10 sma, so this should finally be a confirmed dcl in place.
Both the NASDAQ and the SPX are facing the 50 sma as their next resistance overhead. We will begin to see whether this daily cycle is going to be strong after this consolidation or have the markets weakened.
This low in the General Markets has been anticipated due to the ‘timing’ and we have discussed a good number of trade ideas. I will add a few more below too.
WTIC – Oil has been unable to break back above this 30 sma and the XOP looked weak. As you will see, the XOP is a bit ‘interesting’ here, but I am still not buying yet. Let’s take a look.
XOP – The CYCLE TIMING for the XOP got a little difficult in August & September, and this is the reason why…
Notice how in March through July it is fairly easy to see dcls and small minor dips that I’d call 1/2 cycle dips. Julys deeper dip broke the June dcl, so now we should get lower lows ( lower dcls) as it seeks out the ICL. With that, I couldn’t label another dcl until I got that lower low, but the XOP rallied in August & then rolled over, so that took 2 months. Now where is that next dcl (low)? Is it also an ICL or will this keep dropping? We need more time, but this has been 6 months from the last ICL.
USD – In the weekend report I discussed a possible inverse relationship between the USD & GOLD. As the USD dipped Monday, Gold popped.
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GOLD Popped on Monday. It broke below the last dcl last week and is now trying to put in a new dcl with this swing low at day 30+. After some time passes, I would expect it to roll over into a final daily cycle as shown ( an ICL drop) since the USD seems to have just put in an ICL. We could see a move similar to what I have drawn here.
SILVER also popped on Monday as the USD dipped. Another choppy daily cycle? I discussed a possible drop to the 20 area over time.
Even though the GDX looks like a bear flag here…
GDX actually also looked like a bear flag at the last dcl. That bear flag looking formation actually was the dcl and it popped higher. We are within the timing for a dcl here too. We are not above the 10sma yet, so this is not a confirmed dcl.
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Nothing has really changed since the weekend report with Mondays trading. We did confirm a DCL in the General Markets, and we were expecting to see that due to cycle timing. Last week I pointed out a variety of set ups in various sectors that are playing out as expected ( see SQ, SHOP, AMC, TWTR, UBER, SNAP, etc)…
but the big question is how far will they run? We need to use stops and even raise stops if our trades gain some ground. I will discuss a few more trades below, enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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Yesterday I was discussing WWR in the Live area. Why? I mentioned that I bought it ( I said that I bought it 3 times actually), because this volume was Very Compelling. This is a weekly chart and by midday Monday we had 21 Million? I drew this chart midday, So..
WWR WEEKLY – I took a step back and though that if this were to pop and run, it could gain ground rather easily and is very oversold. Now by the close it had 80 Million volume on a weekly? Well, some readers also bought with me, and it was up 100% last night after hours. NOW THAT MAKES IT HARD TO HOLD ON TO FOR A GOOD RUN. It may just do a pop & drop first. As of this morning it hit $4.30 & then sold off to $3 so far. There is no way to know if this will just continue higher or just sell off with profit taking, so if you bought it, YOU need to decide how you will finish this trade. Sell some pre-market? Sell it all and take the big gains? Let it run? I sold some last night at $3.60 and then bought it back when this dropped to $3 and started to curl back up. Now I need to decide when to sell too. I do not know yet, with this massive volume under oversold conditions.
CLDX DAILY – I bought this break out yesterday and this could make a run similar to the first run higher, BUT … the volume did not increase as much as I hoped on a break out. I am now going to be looking for either an increase of volume or a pull back. A Back test to $14 can be bought ( put on your watch list?) or a small starter can be taken here and add if it continues to act correctly. This is a nice break out from a bullish consolidation.
CLDX WEEKLY – I find this weekly chart to have very bullish potential. A run to a $30 gap fill is not out of the question, since we should not have any resistance in that gap.
SPWR was pointed out with CSIQ Thursday/Friday and the solar stocks are playing out bullishly. FSLR MIGHT be lagging, but I didn’t buy it. I am watching it to see if it wants to play catch up, since this sector has been very bullish. You can put it on a watch list.
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DAL– I called the airline companies a buy a while ago and they did well. They have set up as a buy again with the General market sell off and dcl. I admit, I can only guess how these companies can be setting up as a buy again when business has been drastically cut during the covid spread.
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VISL – This is a double bottom set up with a rising MACD & rising RSI . It is probably on the ‘riskier trade’ side, since it not showing a solid sign of strength yet, but a stop can be placed right at the lows. I bought it last week since many of these former runners are setting up like this and rising up again to make a higher low ( See 2 or 3 month daily charts of RGLS, BIOC, NOVN, BNGO, etc).
CPST -I mentioned this as a buy in the comments yesterday when it was up and breaking out above that 50 sma. Now it becomes trickier because it closed up 12%, but this did run from $2.50 to $6 in July/August, so it can run higher.
BBBY was in a report last week, it is getting follow through. I would use a trailing stop and if you went in heavily you can always sell a little on the way higher. AS A TRADER, I see the volume lightening up and would expect a possible back test of the red line, so I would have sold some.
BBY was also mentioned last week and remains above the 50sma. This one is actually still a buy, but you may want to see when earnings are due or may have already been released on any stock that you buy before buying.
SWIR – I actually like this set up of a stock on my watch list that popped yesterday. Notice how Sierra Wireless Popped strongly in July ($9 – $14), and then consolidated. As the General Markets dropped, it dropped and filled that gap, but then reversed yesterday. It is a low risk buy above the 200 sma.
THESE NEXT 2 STOCKS ARE FOR DAY TRADERS ONLY: They are not ‘buys’ right now, but I have them on a watch list and check them daily using intraday charts. They are known to POP & RUN, but they also POP & Drop . They can move more than 20% up or down, but what I am seeing here is an interesting set up for a possible pop & run too. These 2 can be candidates for experienced day traders to keep an eye on and use intraday charts to tare them, if you know how to do that.
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CARV has a long consolidation after a huge move in June. This stock has been Popping & chopping these past 2 days, so I am keeping my eye on it. yesterday it went from Under $6 to over $7 in the first hour.
KNDI – I have traded this one in the past and it can move quickly. It has also popped from $5 to $7 recently, and dropped back down. As a day trader ( Scalper), you can put this on a watch list and use intraday charts to scalp trade if it continues to react to the market action.
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A fter the market sell off hit this sector for a few days, WKHS is recovering from its drop ( see also Acquisition trades SHLL, KCAC, SPAQ, IPOC, etc )
