September 17th – Post Fed Hangover?
SPX -This is more bullish than bearish at this point, but after the FED Spoke yesterday, the markets sold off. We are still waiting for a break & close above the 10sma.
The NASDAQ was rejected at the 10sma too. It remains oversold and I would like to see this turn around sooner than later.
We really need to see these General Markets find some buying soon, because rolling over from here would lead to weeks of downside, and the sell off could become very sharp.
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WTIC – Oil shot 5% higher yesterday after putting in what looked like a bear flag. This could be a dcl.
XOP – Oil stocks followed Oil this time, and put in a higher volume 5% Pop of its own. I am not buying Oil stocks at this time, but several did have a high volume reversal of their own ( see MRO, VLO, AROC, OAS, etc).
GOLD – Yesterday was an FOMC Day, and the Fed declared that they’d keep interest rates low….for a while. Gold shot up, and down and up and down, then sold off, then tried to recover, so it looked like this on a 1 minute chart. 1 minute it shot higher, and then next it sold off.
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GOLD – Eventually it gave us that DOJI of indecision on a 30 minute chart, and …
GOLD – The daily chart ended the day without much change. More sideways chop on the daily chart too. REMINDER: The day AFTER the Fed sometimes has the real follow through direction and we are due for a dcl. Nobody can cause a sell down into a dcl as quickly as an FOMC Mtg.
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SILVER also just meandered sideways, but again, we are due for a dip and a Post Fed dip would not surprise me, even though the news was Gold favorable.
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GDX – The Miners sold down from the highs of the day and GDX ended up 6 cents. These consolidations do still look like twins, but if Gold sells down, I would imagine that we’ll get our dcl here too. That dip could be below the 50sma and act as a shake out.
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I want to just make one thing clear with our General Markets. People use the 10sma to confirm that a dcl took place & a buy is triggered. I use the 10sma to confirm a dcl that way too, because it shows ‘a sign of strength’ in the buying, however…
If the General Markets never get over that 10sma, and they sell off to new lows, that does NOT mean to me that we didn’t have a dcl. We could have a daily cycle low in place right now that is struggling to find buyers, and sellers are overwhelming it. To be safe: I would just view it as one of the weakest Daily Cycle Lows – one that could not even get above the 10sma. As of right now it looks like we do have a dcl, because it was very late in the daily cycle count. So far, the upside buying just is not there. We need to see how the FEDs announcement, which was formerly viewed as ‘ good news’, affects the General Markets and the Precious Metals. So far, only Oil popped, and that could have been the Oil Inventory Report. Today should be the day that helps us to see whats really going on.
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We are left wondering if the General Markets can get over that 10sma or will it drop further. We are also watching the Precious Metals for a directional move, since they have traveled sideways heading into the FOMC Mtg for weeks, and we are on day 25. One thing that I mentioned earlier this week as something bullish that I am seeing is that the COVID stocks that we used to trade seem to be coming back to life. They DO seem to be finding buyers. I’ll point that out further below.
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Enjoy your Post Fed Thursday trading,
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~ALEX
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Some of our Covid Stocks that we used to trade in the Spring / Summer that doubled, tripled, and so on were NVAX, IBIO, HTBX, VXRT, VIR, NOVN, INO, DVAX, CODX, COCP, and more. I pointed a few out the other day and this is what happened yesterday, despite the Market sell off.
NVAX up 10%, INO up 30%, CODX up 10%, VXRT up 24%, IBIO up 17%, HTBX up 22%, etc
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INO #1 – INO was pointed out earlier and it popped 20% on Sept 15th. It was at the 34 sma, so it could have found resistance and pulled back, but..
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INO popped another 35%. Some of these are starting to move in a similar manner as they did last May, & June.
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HTBX was up 10% when I captured this in the morning and posted it in the live trading area below the report. It broke above the 10sma & looked good..
HTBX was up 23% and then 30% in after hrs as it popped out of this mini base. It almost tagged the 200 sma on this pull back and now may make its way higher over time.
NVAX was the BIG runner last year. This was a buy pointed out here on September 14..
I rode this $8 to $15 or so, and then it got very choppy. Suddenly it was on a tear higher over time to almost $200. It dropped to $90 in a 1 month consolidation and has now moved from $90 to $120. This can return to recent highs and more.
These set ups like NVAX are very hard to recommend as an entry now that they’ve begun to run, because they can keep running, or they can pull back. I usually start a smaller position and add one way or the other when I get a set up like this. As I have mentioned many times in the past- I never just jump all in if a position is not sitting on support during a dcl, because it can pull back to support. If it pulls back and I am too heavily invested, it can be emotionally difficult to view the position accurately.
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VXRT popped Monday around 20%, it dipped Tuesday and then reversed Wednesday again ( Up 13%). This was a buy and it can even be bought in this area. It may continue to chop like this, it may fly, so enter with position size that you are comfortable with in choppy times.
SRNE had strong news yesterday and Popped 20%. It acted the same as VXRT. POP Monday , dropped to the 10sma Tuesday, and reverse strongly up 20% Wednesday. AS YOU CAN SEE- These move quickly and may cause nausea if you are not used to that kind of chop. That said, the gains can be excellent over time, since this can return to the highs.
IBIO -I used this Sept 14th chart to point out this former big runner, and I Bought it since this sector is coming alive. I like that it was up 10%, yet looks like a small move. Even a pop to the 50sma is 50% gains, but I expected more…
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IBIO added 6% yesterday, so I decided to show how these gains could add up. I DO NOT encourage going in extremely heavy looking to double or triple your account. Be reasonable and keep position sizes manageable. What if the FDA rejected their trials? What if they do an offering? Any bad news can cause a large reaction in these, so keep it reasonable and you may add some nice gains to our accounts.
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DVAX – I also bought DVAX, but it is not moving as quickly as some others yet. If it doesn’t react soon, I will find another and jump ship to grab some gains in another Biotech that looks better. This does still look Bullish though.
BYND was recommended here a couple of days ago as a base that could form a cup. So far, it is climbing nicely, I captured this midday. I am mentioning it JUST IN CASE the General Markets sell down, you want to raise a stop on this one. It actually closed higher at $156 with the markets selling down, but I’m really keeping an eye on my long positions this week.
FEAC – This is another acquisition stock that I bought. I sold some portions of my other positions ( some LCA, NIO, and SPAQ) and added to ones that are not extended (FVAC & FEAC).
OPES has been mentioned by me as another acquisition . The Sector has been on fire, but again, watch the General markets and be ready to exit if they start to act bearishly.
SOLO is an EV Company and they are another sector doing well ( TSLA, WKHS, NIO , SPAQ for example).
RIOT & MARA popped with good volume as Bitcoin gained the 11,000 area, but they sold off into the close when the General markets started to sell down. I added to my RIOT , so I need to watch this closely, because I added as it crossed that 50sma, and then it closed under it again. Hopefully RIOT & MARA can close above this area today- I actually expected this to perform better once Bitcoin gained 10,000, so 11,000 should have had this price hold the 50sma.
