Friday September 18th
SPX – So far we still have as the lowest low for the SPX, NASDAQ , and DJIA the one that formed 5 days ago. We could not close above that 10 sma yet, but what if this becomes a choppy sloppy daily cycle for a while? What might it look like?…
What if the SPX just becomes a Choppy sloppy daily cycle? Well, for a visual, it could resemble the current GDX Choppy Sloppy Daily Cycle for a week or more, until it rolls over or takes off higher. So we have to expect anything at this point.
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WTIC #1 – Oil continued up to the 50sma. It is a pretty decent move out of the lows, but this daily cycle broke below the last dcl, so it is a ‘failed daily cycle’ . IF this was not an ICL, and it doesn’t quite look like one, then it should become a L.T. Daily cycle that eventually rolls over into an ICL . So with that in mind, let’s zoom in…
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WTIC CLOSE UP – So even though this has started out fairly strong looking, notice that some of the other moves out of their lows started strong too, but then just chopped sideways. I will be watching to see if Oil just chops sideways soon? Or can it get above the 50sma? Can it break to new highs and continue to show strength? If it, the ICL is still ahead, and…
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Remember when OIL looked strong and it broke above the 200 sma, but the XOP looked weak? Oil then rolled over and the XOP was leading the way. Well at this point the XOP looks weaker than Oil again, and I think that we have a final daily cycle here and then a drop into an ICL.
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XOP SAME CHART: Is this an ICL? I Can’t tell if this was the ICL or not, but the XOP doesn’t seem as strong as oil coming out of the lows, so we may have another daily cycle to get to the ICL. I’m keeping my eyes on Oil stocks for clues and I also want to see what the XOP does at the 50sma.
GOLD dropped post Fed, but that was not a huge drop. We still have a sideways chop and Silver was the same choppy sideways story too.
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GDX dropped right to the 50 sma and reversed there. On day 26 you would expect continued weakness, but so far we still just have a long sideways choppy consolidation.
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And we are still seeing individual Miners act on their own merit.
Some still look Bullish…
While others looked weaker.
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It is Friday the last trading day of the week. Many are ready for the weekend, since the Markets this week have been choppy and a bit difficult or frustrating with that FOMC MTG and the sideways consolidations. The Good News is that choppy consolidations and Daily Cycle Lows do lead to trading opportunities down the road. Along with that idea, we know that Some of our trades are in areas like Biotech, Electric vehicles, and SPAQ and they have actually still done well. Even some Miners are near the highs, but for the most part things have been choppy and difficult in the ETFs as the daily cycles age. I’ll discuss a few trades below and then we’ll have 1 more day of trading before we slide into our weekend.
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Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I SAID: Some of our Covid Stocks that we used to trade in the Spring / Summer that doubled, tripled, and so on were NVAX, IBIO, HTBX, VXRT, VIR, NOVN, INO, DVAX, CODX, COCP, and more. I pointed a few out the other day and they have done well despite the markets choppiness. So I want to briefly discuss another one.
COCP -I like this set up as a Covid play, and the Covid ( testing, vaccines, etc) companies are heating up again. I bought it right in this area at $1.03 and a simple run to the 50sma is a 50% gainer, so this may become a swing trade ( hold it for a week or more) for me.
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HTBX -I will try to hold these new biotech positions as a swing trade, and I might even add again if they drop & reverse. That is how I build a position from a starter to a larger position. So this MIGHT dip down from here, but I’ll be looking for a reversal at the 10sma if so.
NIO – The markets sold off, but look at the Electric Vehicles and SPAC stocks. They are still doing well, so NIO has been a buy & hold since the $13, $14, $15 area and it is still playing out bullishly though choppy and consolidation. It dropped & reversed off of the 20sma yesterday, it looks like it may be ready to break out. It can be bought ( or add to position) here. It could be viewed as a Pan & High running Handle
Speaking of a Pan-like Pattern: WKHS is still running higher as it hit new all time highs yesterday. It did drop at first Thursday, but then it closed at new highs again, despite the Market sell off. The sector has been Hot.
Before the Market even opened around 9 a.m., I posted this chart saying that I had sold some SPAQ Above the $17 area and wanted to buy again at $15.50 – $16. I drew the drop to the 10 area here to show what I would like to buy.
SPAQ gapped down, dropped to that $15.50 and reversed. I bought it back over $1/share cheaper. I still think that SPAQ wants to run to over $20, it just got a bit choppy, as expected.
WKHS Again – I wanted to show you this flat ‘Pan-like consolidation‘ again. When it broke out, you can see that under bullish conditions it just runs higher over time. Well…
I still think that WRN is a similar flat pan-like consolidation. If the Markets or Copper give it a chance, it can break out and run too, so I posted it as a Buy & Hold at the 34 sma ( or put on a watch list & Buy the break out to new highs).
TALO by request – This is a bullish low. TALO seems to have a capitulation low, where Red volume was very strong but price hardly dropped for the final 4 days of the sell off. Now volume is strong as it rises out of the low. It is in a sector that has struggled (Oil & Gas) and I don’t know if Oil put in a simple final dcl or an ICL, so proceed with caution.
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BYND – Recently I’ve been calling Beyond Meat a buy with a long term view of $240 likely. Has the choppy market changed that? Let’s see if it is still progressing…
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BYND was $130 at the 50 sma, and last week it was at $143 .
BYND WEEKLY – Beyond Meat has continued higher this week and is closing the week at the highs, now near $160. This is a swing trade in my opinion and the weekly chart is still closer to oversold.
RIOT WEEKLY – I like to review some of my holdings on Friday and see what they are doing. Bitcoin has moved higher this week, yet RIOT popped & dropped. The weekly chart is ‘o.k.’, but it is at the low end of a channel. It seems that this is following the General Markets rather than Bitcoin, so it may remain choppy .
