Tuesday August 4th

SPX JUNE 30  – In this chart from a month ago I had the cycle count as follows. 37 days is normal for that first daily cycle. 21 seemed too early, so I called that a 1/2 cycle dip ( normal), then a day 31 dcl. A break of that trend line is another buy…

SPX NOW:  So in our first daily cycle I pointed out normal ‘dips’ during the 37 day run.  We had a 1/2 cycle low & two  1/4 cycle dips.  Then in the 2nd daily cycle, we had a deep dip near day 21, and I labeled it a 1/2 cycle low at that time. The next dip I called a dcl as day 31, and now we are in the 3rd daily cycle.   I see 2 small dips , but now we’ve moved back toward the highs.  It remains a bullish set up above the 13 sma ( 10sma is shown).  Many individual stocks remain bullish.

 

 

WTIC  – What I’ve been waiting for? Did Oil finally give us a visible dip ( to the 50 sma) and then reverse higher Monday, let’s see if we finally get some upside follow through.

 

 

XOP  – I tried a few Oil trades, but I left them when I felt I was early and I didn’t get follow though higher ( APA, AROC, SLCA, CPE). They may be ready to go now,  so a watchlist is helpful at this time.  Check your charts , there may be some buying opportunities, and I will keep covering this in the daily reports.

 

 

GOLD DAILY – Honestly? I see no visible dip as a dcl, we are on day 41 , and this still looks like a bullish consolidation that would break higher. So…

 

 

GOLD 2 hr chart  – This looks very bullish, so we’ll just have to see how things play out. A visible dip into a dcl has been resisted so far with this strength, but silver and GDX are at least showing some form of dip .  The word on the chart should be FLAT TOP, my apologies for missing that.

 

SILVER  does have a visible drop, but it also remains bullishly aligned above the 10 sma.

 

GDX  dropped to the 13 sma ( where I keep a stop in a bull run) and it also looks like it could push higher, Especially if Gold does. Some have sold some of their extended Miners, taken profit on strong ones, and left a core position that they would ‘stop out’ of.  That core position will capture future  gains.

I trade many other areas, but what if you ONLY like to trade Miners and feel lightly invested?  You do have a bullish set up here, so you can re-buy with a stop and try to catch more upside ( this works with individual miners too, since I have mentioned that individual miners can always do their own thing).

NSRPF – I pointed  out VGZ and NSRPF  yesterday in our live area as Miners that did not look ready to quit, but they also aren’t extended.  If you see a Miner acting bullishly along the major moving averages like NSRPF (Especially after it did pull back for 2 weeks), it may be ready to go higher. This certainly is NOT extended, it has re-set.

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We have had excellent trading conditions, and Miners, our Covid related stocks and Blockchain stocks have added exceptional gains over time. It has been  Good Times riding the various Bulls.  Energy stocks are on the radar, we’ll see if they get the follow through to make them trade worthy.   I will discuss some trade set ups in various sectors below.

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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

 

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BTE is an energy stock that I just think looks ready to go higher. It is oversold, reversed & re-gained the moving averages, etc. I captured this during open market hours , but I didn’t buy it (yet),  since I have several Blockchain , Covid , and other positions open.   If I didn’t have so many open positions, I would have bought it with a tight stop.  It tripled in MAY-JUNE, 25 cents to 75 cents.

 

Uranium Stocks dipped after breaking out (often we see a back test) and now look to be reversing higher.  Lets take a look at a few.

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DNN reversed Friday and had follow through Monday, so this looks like a back test of the break out. The good news is that…

 

Some are still at the reversal of support.  They offer lower risk buys or places to add to current positions.

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URG  is very low risk, since your stop can be placed right below the 34/50 /200 sma support, as shown.

 

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UUUU – You can see that these are acting very similarly.  This has started to move higher, but can still be bought.

 

URNM  is an ETF, and I was asked for my thoughts on it by someone on Twitter. I replied that it was extended a bit, they ought to wait ( or start small) and try to buy a gap dip if we get one, just to be safe.

And after that , URNM  dropped and filled the gap , so if you like the Uranium ETF instead of possibly a higher risk individual Uranium Miner, this may be your vehicle too.

 

 

DISH – This is a very nice bullish chart. You could buy this reversal on the 200sma, since it looks to be breaking out. DISH may be covid-proof like NFLX, etc.

 

FCEL #1 -BLDP, PLUG, and other clean energy stocks are set up again,and FCEL is breaking higher with volume. It has been a bit choppy over the past few weeks or months, but The Bigger picture shows the real potential…

 

FCEL #2 – Those big waves turn into  a nice base along the upturning 200sma. LET ME NOW SHOW YOU ONE MORE THING…

 

BLDP & PLUG were also choppy bases, but the gains have been excellent over time. $2 to $10 ( And reversing to go higher again).

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CLNE  is another Clean Energy Stock that popped, worked its way back to support,  and may be  ready to go too. It is in a base too.

 

CODX BY REQUEST – This was a buy at support and I posted this.  I am now being asked when to sell it. Well, my original price target was mentioned as at least a run to recent highs, but…

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CODX – This can go higher (See NVAX for example).  I hate telling people when to sell, because if you ask, I will always tell you to sell early if you don’t want to lose it.  I will say, you are now up from $17 to $30-  cash it in, nice trade, because if it pulls back , I get blamed 🙂 .    The fact is, this is breaking out and these can skyrocket when they do.  This sector is very bullish, so sure, you can sell it anytime you want to lock in gains, but I always just sell a portion if I am heavily invested, and let some ride with a mental stop.

 

 

COCP  and it is the same with COCP. These get extended, but they can rocket if they get to new highs , so this was actually a buy yesterday as it reversed, but it just kept running, up 40% in one day.  I would sell a little and let it ride. That is just MY style,  what is yours? If you want to lock it all in, that is a great trade.

 

DVAX  is now set up VERY similar to the one above (COCP).  It is a buy and the chart above shows you why.

MRNA (and BNTX and VIR) have also pulled back bullishly  and MRNA is a buy when it breaks this down trend. If you are still holding from the early July Buy, you can even add if you sold some on the pop or wish to be heavier.

 

NIO – Thought of as the Chinese Tesla, NIO took off and ran from $2 to $15. Amazing run. It then did a normal bullish consolidation and looks ready to go again. It finds support above the gap and this could be a Buy & Hold with a stop (trailing) or it could even make a nice trade for short term traders.

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Many Chinese stocks have been running, so a watch list there has been helpful. CHNR, PHUN, CGA are good set ups. JRJC, LEJU, SOGO and SOHU have been running, etc etc

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CHFS  – I grabbed this chart Monday morning as CHFS broke to new highs.  It closed at 41.  CHFS has earnings this morning, so you need to sell pre-market if you wish to avoid that. Anyone that bought this is now in the green, since it is at new highs. I was pretty heavy, since I bought it in the base and added at one point. I doubled my money, so I sold 25% and will ride out the earnings report.  They have a conference call at 9 a.m. following earnings.

 

CHFS  – They have been Tweeting & advertising that their business is ” Growing Strong”  and equipment is being used for Covid Treatment, so we’ll see if they are just pushing their stock? Or is the hype in the earnings too?

 

 

LET’S TALK ABOUT MARA and BLOCKCHAIN GAINS: The MARA, RIOT, NXTD, XNET , etc Trades put on a show yesterday.

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MARA WEEKLY JUL 22 – I pointed out that the weekly chart was a very bullish set up, with price above the 10 & 30 ma, and volume building nicely. I pointed out a chart of BITCOIN and recommended MARA, RIOT, NXTD, etc

 

MARA did an offering, dropped to 90 cents and then took off higher with Bitcoin. It was up 85% last week, but this could go much higher, as seen here. 

 

 

MARA   and so it did. MARA was up over 100% yesterday as it passed $4  ( 90 cents to $4). It was up around 130% at one point and began to pull back.

 

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MARA   – The gap could fill with a gradual rounding base forming, but since BITCOIN looks quite Bullish, I think that MARA will leave that gap behind.  Should you sell? Should you ride it?  We are up over 200%…

 

MARA  -This is what ‘up over 200%’ looks like on the weekly chart.  “Should you sell?” Could it pull back further? Yes. Does it have more upside? I would say , Yes. Did you see OSTK when it popped from its base? So many people look at OSTK…

People look at OSTK, they see that it ran from $3 to $75, and say, “Why didn’t I ride that?!!”  Now you know why. Would you have bought OSTK after it ran from $3 to %10?  Will you buy MARA now? Will you sell?  It NEVER looks or feels the same in real time, so…

 

At this point,  just like with OSTK, it gets hard to ‘Enter’ the trade now in the middle of such a big move,right? It can drop, it can run, so it is very hard to start a position now.  THAT is why many missed OSTK.  With that thought in mind…

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If you bought it low near $1.00, why not sell some to keep the gains and let the rest ride and see if you own a company that runs like OSTK? You can also figure out at what price you will use a stop to keep some additional gains if it sells down too much for your liking. $2.00? $2.25? $2.75?  YOU should know where you want your stops… it “Stops” the losses at that point.  THIS IS NOT EASY TO DO, but this is where you will learn more about yourself as a trader/investor.