Wednesday July 22 – Oil Inventory

Recent reports have focused a lot on  Miners, some Uranium Stocks, Biotech bases and set ups, and a bit of Oil and Energy Stocks.  We may be nearing a short term top in the Miners, so we raise our stops.  I also have been saying for the past 2 weeks that I am expecting a very buy-able low in Energy Stocks, and I believe we are there.  Since Today is Wednesday and that is when the Oil Inventory Report is released, we will either get a small dip that can lead to a buying opportunity, or we may just take off higher.  I bought some Energy stocks already, I will discuss that below.   So todays report will focus more on Oil /Energy at the end, but the Miners and Biotech stocks have been EXPLOSIVE as you know. Keep raising stops and be prepared for a possible short term dip at any given time, but enjoy the ride in the meantime 🙂 . I’ll discuss that too.

.

QQQ  – The Nasdaq closed down with a reversal while the SPX closed slightly green, but it also had a reversal. So this is normal market action and we’ve been using the 10sma as a guide, and maybe the 13 sma as a stop.

 

.

YESTERDAY I WROTE:  WTIC  remains the same, a tight consolidation. This is so tight that it could break higher today or tomorrow ( Oil inventory report day).   HAVE YOU BEEN WATCHING THE OIL/ENERGY STOCKS, AS MENTIONED ?

.

Oil broke higher as expected. The Oil inventory report may push this higher.

 

.

THE XOP CHART FROM YESTERDAY:  I have been pointing out the possible wave count as shown, and if that is correct, we would expect the next move to be higher.  A close above the 10sma is what we look for as a dcl being confirmed.

I mentioned: We have ‘Long Energy’ plays if this plays out, so keep an eye on the charts of our Energy Stocks like APA, PVAC, CVI, MRO, etc should become nice %-Gains to trade / invest in too. We then looked at PVAC…

.

XOP   – As expected, we got a nice pop higher and that is a DCL buy. We should have weeks of upside ahead. I will discuss energy stocks at the end of the report.

 

,

GOLD  – I pointed this channel out a while ago and even as steep as Gold has been running, it could go higher to get to the top of the channel. Yes, GOLD CAN KEEP RUNNING FOR A BIT LONGER.   Sure, we also could get a dip (a Dcl?), and THEN PEAK with the next push higher, but so far Gold is just bullishly stretching out here.

 

.

SILVER  has been a rocket lately.  It did reach a measured move target Tuesday( and 5 waves), but continued another $1+ higher in after hours.  Let’s look at a live chart from after hrs Tuesday night as I write the report…

 

SILVER  took off in after hours and extended that Tuesday gain. Sometimes we see these as ‘End Moves’, but it can also be 2 or 3 candles in a row like this. Time will tell.   So basically, this can be a time when things get Frothy at the top and everyone rushes in so as not to miss the move. We then get a temporary blow off top,  and would start seeing a pull back.

 

 

GDX -Miners did not seem to put in a normal dcl dip ( one that bends the 10sma downward and forms a small trend line down), so we MIGHT be due for that dip now? Most daily cycles are on average 33+ days. A dip, if we get one here, may not last long and this would be very right translated.  Read the chart to see the count.

 

SILJ  has had the highest volume ever over the past 2 days.  We also had a strong gap open twice. What if the Silver stocks sell down, what might SILJ look like?

 

SILJ  – A dip for SILJ could be mild, so I am showing a typical a-b-c type dip, but it could be deeper and down to the 34 sma. Sliver moves quickly in both directions at times.

.

  We have enjoyed exceptional trading & Gains in many areas of the markets, with Miners becoming quite bullish since the March lows. After a recent consolidation that formed a cup in that sector, the break out helped miners to take off upside. It may be getting close to a time that they’ll pull back, so just be aware of that.

. 

  The good news is that it now seems that a dip into a dcl has happened with the Oil Stocks.  These can also put in some nice gains and run for weeks, so I will discuss them below.  First, though, I want to mention that,  “YES, I am still in many of my Biotech Stocks and that sector remains Red Hot!”  I own NOVN, BNGO, CHFS, CHEK, RGLS, and a few others.  I will continue to discuss them in future reports, but there is only so much time in a day and the remarks below should focus on the new bullish set up in Oil (and a little Uranium reminder).

.

Enjoy your Wednesday trading!

.

~ALEX

.

I’M SORRY, BUT HOW CAN I NOT MENTION THIS FIRST !!  🙂

.

NOVN EXPLODED AND IS UP 99% THIS WEEK ALONE. We have been riding this base for a long time, and suddenly we are well rewarded.  That is a fire-pole to the left, and guess what?  I have many times seen price climb back up that fire-pole over time if volume buying comes in.  Well- look at that weekly volume ( Hello! That is only as of Tuesday!!). TAKE A LOOK AT WEEKLY CHARTS OF CHEK & BNGO TOO.

.

 AND NOW WE MOVE ON TO OIL / ENERGY STOCKS 

,

PVAC  was in yesterdays report as  a bullish set up that already bottomed at $8 and moved to $11…

 

PVAC  – Yesterday I also drew the 5 waves and showed that we should now expect a run higher.

 

PVAC closed up 18%, but was well up over 20% Midday. That is how these can move, so we are going to discuss this sector as a buy & hold (Swing trades) for additional gains. Many of us made Great %-Gains on that first leg up out of the March lows.

.

So I have discussed APA, LPI, CLB, PVAC, AROC, MRO, VLO, WTI, CPE, OAS, HTX, and so many more. I hope you have your watch list , because the charts are really setting up Bullishly and you want to get into these as close to the lows as possible.  Why? They are often jumpy, Choppy, and hard to ride if you buy them in the middle of the run. So get in early …

.

APA  JULY 15 – When it looked like the XOP was going to bottom a week ago, I posted a few Energy charts as possibly already bottoming. This was Apache Corp as it moved $12 to $14…

APA NOW – Apache churned sideways for a week and Popped 10% yesterday, now almost at $15.  This ran from 44 to $17.70 from April to June, and I feel that it can easily run up 100% from these lows (over time) too,

 

 

 I bought AROC as a swing trade because it did not sell off much in the recent dip to a dcl and is already back near the recent June highs. This bullishly tagged the 50sma and it held as support as buyers moved in.

 

I also bought SLCA as a swing trade for the same reason.  It ran from $1 to $4.50, and only dipped to the 50sma at $3. 00.  Notice how choppy it can be, so it may be a rough ride at times, but steadier gains came after each consolidation and one is just finishing up here.

 

WTI popped 10% Tuesday and is pushing on the 50 sma with good volume. This is a buy, it may be doing a 1-2-3-4-5 wave higher.

 

 

CLB has been riding the 50sma for 3 weeks but now it is starting to lift off. It was up 10% Tuesday and may be ready to run back to the June highs. That is $22 to $30.

 

CPE – I ( and some other readers here) bought this where the first 2 green arrows are in a ‘base set up along with OAS. Suddenly they both surged higher and we locked in 200-300% gains  🙂   CPE has now dropped back to the 50sma and is siding it nicely.  There is more risk to these lower priced stocks  ( possible ‘offering’ that drops price or even talks if bankruptcy), so these low prices set ups are bullish, but have added risk.  To avoid this risk,  stay with APA, PVAC, SLCA, MRO, VLO, etc.

.

 Speaking of MRO- Marathon Oil is a fairly well known company that ran roughly from $3 to $8.50 and has now dipped into a dcl and formed a bullish descending wedge. This is a buy and yesterdays volume shows that it is being noticed here.

 

.

I have also discussed Uranium Stocks lately, breaking from a recent consolidation that followed a strong run out of the lows.  We discussed  UUUU, URG, UEC, CCJ, NXE, etc.

.

UUUU was highlighted in that consolidation on July 15 here…

 

.

UUUU broke out, but isn’t extended, so as it stalls here (maybe a bull flag is forming), you can still look for an entry as a swing trade (multi-week).

 

DNN– was in yesterdays report with this bigger picture view.  The potential upside is good.

 

DNN is breaking out and this chart was also in yesterdays report, so…

 

DNN had a little more follow through ( 5.5%).  They do get choppy, so buy the dips if it gets extended, but if you wanted uranium Stocks–you should have already been buying last week & this week.

 

URG has now joined the run, so this is still low risk with support right under price. We saw a shake out and now it should be moving higher over time.

As you can see, the ENERGY and URANIUM TRAINS are leaving the station. Don’t wait too long if you wanted to take a position or 2, because the higher up you buy these, the more there is a chance that you’ll experience a dip under your entry point.  let’s just say that some find that rather uncomfortable.

 

.

FINALLY, BY REQUEST:  I do still own CHNR and I took the money that I had in PHUN and added it to CHNR.  I like the way price is tightly pinched here between the 50 & 200sma.  It also has a very long base. I’m going to try to just hold this position and ignore it for a while (unless it breaks below the 50sma).

 

Reminder : You can also review yesterdays report for a review of the Biotech Set ups  ( NOVN, BNGO, CHEK,RGLS, CHFS, BIOC,  etc ). Some may have forgotten some of my expectations in this area.

From the weekend report.