Wednesday June 24th – Slow Progress
SPX -No change and there is still time for this to move higher before a dip into a dcl comes due. The SPX is having a hard time moving higher here, it seems ‘heavy’. It has been choppy and sideways.
The NASDAQ is at new highs, but it also broke to new highs and put in a slight reversal here, like it was a false break out. This too has been fairly sideways for a week.
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MU – There are trades that I have pointed out in past reports ( AMD, TSEM, TWTR, etc ) that are Popping and dropping and churning , not making a whole lot of upside progress. This is not bearish, but it consumes time in the daily cycle and the longer this happens, the less likely that a nice rally will come from those stocks becomes. At least not until after a dcl is put in place.
WTIC – Oils daily cycles can last over 50 days long. I expected a jump higher to the 200sma and then a dip, but at day 44 a dip can honestly start at any time. TODAY IS THE OIL OIL INVENTORY REPORT, THAT COULD START A DIP INTO A DCL, OR IT COULD POP OIL TO THE 200SMA OVERHEAD, AND THEN IT DROPS TO A DCL.
XOP – Energy stocks look a bit heavy, but they’re oversold and selling volume seems to be lightening up, so we still could see a bounce in Oil / Energy Stocks. I am not buying energy stocks right now, but they are at support so a tight stop would work for buyers, but I would look for a reversal first (a turn higher).
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I have slight concerns in what I am seeing in the Precious Metals sector, but I will discuss that at the end of the report and we’ll take it step by step. It is not a major concern, just observations that I will have to keep an eye on, there is nothing else that we can do.
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GOLD – Gold looks good and moved higher Tuesday. This looks like a normal rally higher.
SILVER popped & dropped Monday, but it did manage to gap down and then close higher Tuesday. The trend line held support. So this looks good too, it closed at the days highs.
YESTERDAY I POINTED THIS OUT WITH SILVER – And price has slowly been pushing higher and is still rather oversold, so Silver & Silver stocks can still be bought ( AGQ, USLV for leverage) with a stop.
GLD – I just wanted to show how GLD has moved over the past 3 days, and is at new 2020 highs. Notice that GLD closed at the highs as it pushed higher Tuesday.
GDX is not at new 2020 highs and did not close at the highs Tuesday, it ended as a doji. That alone is not ‘bad’, but if Gold and Silver are pushing higher and GLD & SLV are closing near the highs, it makes me wonder why Miners aren’t leading the way higher? Why are they seeing selling into the end of the day?
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YESTERDAY FOR MY GDX CHART: I wrote – If this ran 4 months tolike the last strong run, we would see a peak soon ( Early to mid July) as shown here. That is why I said that I would prefer to see price accelerate sooner than later to give us a pretty solid run – like this.
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GDXJ also closed as a doji. The chart looks good, but they still do seem to be lagging the metals a bit. Like I said yesterday, “I prefer to see price accelerate sooner than later to give us a pretty solid run. “.
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The General Markets are chopping sideways and Oil & Energy stocks are too.
Since I pointed out that Miners seem to be lagging the metals a bit, I will discuss that a little further below. I have had plenty of stock picks in recent reports, and discussed some Miners yesterday, so today I will just cover some Miners below, to address what was mentioned above. So trades in recent reports like LLIT, CHFS, RIOT, MARA, etc ( and I’ve pointed out a few Miners ) are still doing fine. The older Tech Trades like MU, AMD, TSEM, TWTR, etc. are simply churning sideways .
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Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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CDE – So I want to start by pointing out a weak move by a miner yesterday. I own CDE and it pushed higher, but then dropped. Remember, GOLD & SILVER closed at the highs, so this is at the very least ‘frustrating’.
AUY – Again GLD & SLV closed at the highs and a good miner like Yamana popped to break out and then dropped into the end of the day. This CAN change this week, but I just wanted to point out an observation that some of these popular Miners are making slow progress.
NEM – Speaking of popular Miners, even Newmont stalled and dropped at the 34 sma. Gold closed at the highs and NEM gained 9 cents?
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So there were many Miners that acted this way, and it is just something that I need to watch going forward. It looks weak, but that can change. Now lets take a quick look at a few Miners that acted the way you would expect if GLD & SLV closed at the highs of the day.
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NGD had a strong Pop and closed up near the days highs. Since it is oversold, this could rally for a couple of weeks.
NGD (This is encouraging)- I do want to point out that the 1st & 2nd day of NGDs run were doji and weak looking, but suddenly a burst higher came yesterday. THIS IS WHAT I WANT TO SEE IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED ABOVE.
ASM has the same pattern ( Doji, Doji, Burst), so again this is encouraging. We saw 2 rather weak doji days of indecision off of the 34 sma, but then a burst higher Tuesday that closed at the highs. THIS IS WHAT WE WANT TO LOOK FOR.
AU – Boom, Boom, Boom. Many of the African Miners are just ripping higher. In the past this was due to the fact that they receive payments in USD (stronger than their Rand). So watch your African Miners.
DRD is also an African Miner and look at this rally! THIS IS WHAT MANY OF US EXPECTED TO SEE AFTER WEEKS OF SIDEWAYS CHOP. We’ll see.
EXK – I thought that EXK looked great yesterday.
GFI – is also an African Miner. It has the strong move out of the chop too, as Gold pushes higher.
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So I am watching the precious Metals sector , and Miners in particular, to see how this move plays out. I have pointed out
1. Weakness in many Miners, then
2. I pointed out stronger moves in some Miners, especially African Miners, and
3. Then I pointed out that some of those that made strong moves actually started off slow too.
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So I want to see if some Miners that are starting off slow can pick up the pace and improve over time.
