Wednesday May 6th – ‘In It To Win In’
At this point, I think that all of my readers know what I am expecting from my most recent reports. Todays report is going to basically seem like a review since not much has changed, but that will also help to make expectations clear. Let’s go to the charts!…
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FROM YESTERDAY : SPX – Question from reader: Is that reversal your dcl above the 50 sma? Answer: That is a Good question, but I’d have to say ” Most likely no”. I expect more selling and would expect it to be longer than a 29 day daily cycle. SPX daily cycles have run 40 + days, so I’d expect more downside at this time.
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SPX #1 – Tuesday the markets actually gapped open and looked pretty bullish, but by the end of the day, they sold off again. That isn’t necessarily bearish, but…
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SPX #2 – We are due for a dip into a dcl here at day 30, so you may see a break of the 50sma and a drop like this, or…
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SPX #3 – If this ‘buy the dip’ crowd keeps stepping in, we could have a choppy top and a quick drip to 38% Fib by day 40 or so…
It is not easy to tell exactly how this will play out, because a strong first daily cycle may or may not hold up as a dcl timing approaches. That’s what makes this so difficult to short, and so my recommendation is simply to recognize that we should still have a dcl ahead, and that ‘low’ can be bought.
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WTIC – oil had a 30% Pop! Oil has now tripled off of the lows, but of course it was a BIG crash down. We were buying Energy stocks as Oil crashed down to the lows, at a time when there was an intense amount of fear. Gains have been rather excellent, however…
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XOP – Oil was up 30% and Energy stocks sold off when the general markets sold off into the close. The charts are still bullishly set up, but THAT price action should be a caution sign that MAYBE these dip when the Markets find their dcl. Dip to the 50sma? We’ll see, it could be an Excellent Buy opportunity too.
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GOLD YESTERDAY: Gold can chop sideways for a bit longer, since the APEX is ahead.
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GOLD is choppy, but that is to be expected. This could break out at any time, and even if it quickly dropped to the 50sma, I am expecting a break & run higher. That would be a false break down/shake out- but I think that is less likely now.
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I have been using this chart as a guide for you to see what I am watching for. Triangles take up time, without losing price. That can be very bullish.
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SILVER needs to play catch up and when it breaks above the 50sma it could really run swiftly. So far this long consolidation can be a way to build up energy to break that 50 sma & the 200 sma that is above that too (not shown).
GDX / GOLD RATIO – While Gold is forming a triangle and Silver is crawling Under the 50sma, and Miners are leaving people behind. Look at the GDX vs Gold ratio.
GDX is making new highs and I mentioned that the quick flash drop last week looks like a dcl to me, because…
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GDX– I have seen a quick sharp drop like that the last time a triangle in Gold formed. It was the dcl.
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Many still have the Miners that they bought after the R.R., Tracks, but we’ve been adding or building on that amount recently. You really should own Miners at this point. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BTG was bullishly breaking higher Tuesday. They released earnings after the bell and were up another 15 cents & mentioned an increase in their dividend. You will find their earnings below this chart
This link will take you to BTG earnings.
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KGC Also released earnings and was higher in after hours, I believe that they also increased their dividend.
NEM released earnings before the bell, and after a brief sell down, it closed up 3.5%.
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At this point, we have seen many miners release earnings and do well. They were selling Gold for $1200-$1300/ OZ last year and are now selling it for $1600- $1700. That is a big increase, plus the Energy costs are lower, so that is helping too.
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FROM YESTERDAYs REPORT : NSRPF – On Monday I saw this right as the closing bell sounded, another flat topped triangle. I would have bought this and if it hangs below the 200sma for another day, I will buy it, this is a buy set up.
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NSRPF – As expected, NSRPF broke out. I did buy it, but it only filled 1/2 of my order as it broke higher. I hope to add again today.
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USLV & AGQ – I have mentioned that I bought USLV and I was asked why, since I rarely mentioned buying it at prior ICL’s. I usually choose JNUG as leverage, and I do own some now, but my reasoning for a USLV purchase is that I think the upside potential for Silver is great if it gets above the 50sma. I do think that Silver should play ‘Catch up’, since Gold & Miners are already up at recent highs.
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SILVER (SAME CHART) This tiny move yesterday was a 6% gain, so just imagine how easy it should be for this to run to $50, $60, $70? A run to $80 is a 100% gain. That said, I do not want to encourage recklessness. This is 3x leverage, AGQ is a double, know yourself as a trader and know the risks and the rewards. If you buy a leveraged Silver play, maybe a small position suits you best?
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