Wednesday May 13 – I Need A Catalyst
Just an FYI : I was feeling a bit run down this weekend. You may have noticed that I wasn’t in the Live chat area Monday or Tuesday after the first hr of trading? Well, I felt a bit sick on Monday and then I got hit hard Tuesday with flu symptoms like chills, body ache, low grade fever, etc, and ended up just sleeping for 16 hrs sporadically after the markets opened.
I’m really only mentioning this because I may not be in the live area as much as I would like to be this week, and I will be going to my doctor later today if he will test me. I do NOT think that I have the Corona-Virus, the symptoms are slightly different so far, and my wife has no symptoms. I’m thinking that I just caught a normal version of the flu. I’m sorry if I missed some questions in the live area, but I will still work to get these reports out. I basically slept all Tuesday and Tuesday night and got up at 5 am & wrote it. Not a problem. So…
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BASICALLY… FOR THE PRECIOUS METALS SECTOR, WE ARE WAITING FOR A CATALYST TO GET THIS SECTOR RUNNING! Even just a break out of that Gold triangle could move the buyers to really start buying. Lets take a look at the charts!…
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SPX – Day 29 is early for a dcl, so I have still been thinking that we should expect one more dip. These markets do not want to sell down for more than 1 or 2 days though. If we do sell off, it should be short lived.
NAZ- The NASDAQ had a high volume reversal and usually they get follow though, so we’ll see what Wednesday brings our way. Futures are higher as I write at 5 a.m. Eastern time.
WTIC – Production cuts were announced by the Saudi oil producers. Today is Oil inventory, and this looks bullish, so we’ll see if it gets a pop and run from here. Day 15 of possible 40-50 days.
GOLD – I really don’t know what is going to trigger this next move, but I’m expecting it to be higher. This is a bullish set up and from here we have been waiting for the chop to stop.
SILVER broke out above the 50 sma, now it is flagging sideways. Again we are waiting for the chop to stop.
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FROM YESTERDAY:
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GDX moved higher after the day 33 reversal and is chopping sideways. 3 things I’ll point out here…
1. The day 33 low of $31.31 should not be broken if that is the dcl.
2. If that does break ( and back tests that 50sma), we’d be on day 40 or 40+ and the drop should end quickly as the dcl.
3. Gold is chopping in a triangle, so realistically GDX may be waiting for that to end. I DO still expect day 33 to be that dcl at this point.
GDX DAY 40? or day 7? – GDX is Still chopping. I don’t love this chart, because it is bending the 10sma downward. That usually happens as it dips into a dcl, and that would mean that the $31.31 would be broken if the dcl is still ahead and we back test that 50sma. I still find that less likely, but in these markets, things stretch and you have to expect the unexpected. OVERALL, IT IS BULLISH LONG TERM.
NEM – I don’t want to cause unnecessary alarm, but I do see divergence increasing at this double top, and I mentioned it last week. When I see this, I automatically begin to accept the fact that this could dip down, so I wanted to point it out.
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So we continue to see choppy sideways action, and this was not unexpected, but it does make the day to day market action boring and uneventful. There are some good trade set ups in the Precious Metals sector, because most things are chopping sideways near support. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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SILVER – Since silver already broke out above that 50sma, it is currently bullishly set up for a solid run higher. It stands to reason that Silver stocks will react strongly higher when Silver runs toward $20.
SVM #1 – SVM is pinched in a tight consolidation and these usually spring higher and run swiftly when the chop finishes up.
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SVM #2 – A measured move puts it over $6 and if Silver runs swiftly this can extend too.
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I have also mentioned GPL
A LONG TERM BREAK OUT IS CLOSE
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DO you remember when we discussed NVAX as a coronavirus vaccine candidate? It jumped from $4 to $10, then $6 to $18. I was trading it , but it was just too hard to ‘BUY & HOLD’. Well, it hit $45 yesterday !! Was that an easy ride???
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NVAX hit $45, but this has been quite a difficult ride and most of them are ( INO, IBIO, VIR, NNVC, etc)…
But With NVAX, NNVC, and other Virostocks putting in massive gains again,
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HTBX – I decided to buy a position in the flat base of HTBX. It is a flat base chopping sideways for months and honestly—this can just continue to chop sideways for another month, but I like the support and have a small position.
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INO has been climbing higher and these are big moves ( up & Down). That last run in April was $7 to almost $17 ( And then back to $9). Good for day traders or traders looking for a possible 3 or 4 day trade.
