May 14th Thursday – Waiting For That Bullish Break Through

Just a very short update on my health: I had a video conference with a doctor, he ordered me a Covid test since my symptoms matched Corona symptoms. I’ll know by the weekend, but honestly Monday night & Tuesday were my worst days (a bit scary).  I’m feeling much improvement. Fever peaked at 100 and has pulled back to 99. Body aches and chills were constant for 2 days, now rare and less intense. I slept over 16 hrs Tuesday, Wednesday another 13+ ( I usually get 6).  Thanks for comments & well wishes, I am not reckless, I’ll be careful, I’m taking vitamins, lots of fluids, lots of rest, and things seem to be heading in the right direction since feeling run down last Saturday ( day 5 or 6 here).  Thanks for all the well wishes, but since I’m not sleeping 24 hrs a day, I woke up rather early on Thursday, so lets look at some charts!

 

DJIA – The DOW broke the day 29 lows and landed on the 50sma.  This is what I have been saying I thought the SPX would do for the last week…

 

SPX – We do have a new low in the SPX with day 29 being broken Wednesday, so this would be  day 36 and matches what I have been thinking : “We can get 40+ days in a daily cycle of the General Markets and the dcl ( Daily Cycle Low) could still be ahead”.

 

SPX –  Since this Rally is more or less what I have been expecting since the lows (based on that DOW 1929 DROP) , my main thought is that we get a dcl & bounce further in the 2nd daily cycle.  The next low could be a buy opportunity with a tight stop, Then we will watch how things unfold from there ( With trailing stops).

,

You will recall that I drew it this way long ago in March, because The 1929 rally after the crash lasted 6 months.  This is 2 daily cycles higher, I expected maybe SPX 3200,  HOWEVER, let me throw another idea out there…

UNDER CURRENT GLOBAL CONDITIONS, DOESN’T IT MAKE SENSE TO BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS? YES. IF YOU HAVE MADE GOOD GAINS ON THE RIDE UP, JUST PROTECT THOSE GAINS , BECAUSE…

.

SPX – We didn’t get to that 3200 yet, but right now I would keep in mind that we are in an environment that is maintained by Fed Intervention vs a Global shutdown. Let’s use stops and we’ll watch how this unfolds.

I am amazed that the Nasdaq almost made it to the highs again, but every moth learns the hard way that some pretty shiny lights can really burn you.

 

.

WTIC – This is important. Notice: Oil bottomed in Mid April.  Oil  is only on day 16 and looks to be bullishly crawling along the 50 sma. The important part is that Oil is only on day 16, because OIL & ENERGY STOCKS BOTTOMED A LONG TIME AGO. Do you remember when we bought & rode Oils stocks in March, a few weeks before Oil stopped crashing?…

.

XOP – The OIL STOCKS did NOT Follow OIL down after Mid March and April, we bought them in March.  That said, they may now be due for a drop into their own dcl. I am completely out of Oil Stocks, since they sell off rather quickly and the uptrend line (basically the 10 sma) has been broken. Also we are late in the 30’s for a cycle count.

,

EXAMPLE: APA – Buying the dip after a nice first daily cycle could become a great trade. If  Apa drops from a peak of $14 to $9 and then runs again, it could be a great %-Gainer again, so I will be watching this sector as it drops. APA, OKE, PVAC, MRO, BE, TUSK, GUSH (XOP) and more were traded here, and will be watched as this sector dips.

 

GOLD #1 – It almost looks too good, right? It looked ready to break out Wednesday, but then the Miners started to sell down and Gold stalled.

.

GOLD #2 from May 11: I have discussed that A FALSE break down to the 50sma is still not out of the question, but whether this breaks down & then higher, or just higher, it still looks very bullish.

.

GDX – Yesterday saw more of a ‘doji of indecision’ for the ETFs, with some miners holding up & others selling off more than others. I was asked, “If the markets sell down, didn’t miners drop with the market sell off?  How can they resist getting dragged down again?“

 

All I can say is that GOLD looks ready to break out higher and I don’t think we’ll see GOLD break out of that bullish triangle and run, and at the same time see Miners drop. Why? At this point, many have released BULLISH EARNINGS REPORTS based on Gold sales with Gold prices higher. Gold at even higher prices, with Energy costs still low should improve the future expectations too.

GOLD AT 6 am Eastern time:  It is running out of room at the Apex, and looks ready to break out soon.

One short term concern with Gold = False flags at that resistance line, and then it would sell down. We are at that level right now.

.

So we have a lot to watch with these choppy markets, so Enjoy your Thursday Market Action!

.

~ALEX

,

I will most likely have more charts with stock picks and buy set ups in tomorrows report, but please scroll through some of the recent past reports for some ideas that were posted there.  The General markets are pulling back, so some of the stocks mentioned there may hold up and become buy candidates for those interested in that sector. For example, We discussed UBER, TWTR, SQ, AMD, WORK, CRWD, TSEM (weird movement yesterday) ,  etc in reports a couple of weeks ago. You can watch how they pull back toward support ( 50sma?) at this time.

 

AUMN – I used to trade AUMN a lot in past Bull runs, and it can run SWIFTLY, but many have noted that I haven’t  mentioned it recently.  It just didn’t look ready after the march run, to me.  Well, It is sort of showing bullish signs right here and now, so it may be worth keeping an eye on when Gold breaks out.  I will be watching it. They reported earnings May 7th with no reaction.