Tuesday April 7th

 

 

SPX – We actually bought the reversal candle ( I mentioned that I bought SOXL, since it bottomed first) and we had our pullbac to the 10sma  (normal) and now we have follow though higher. You could have added at the 10sma, or even started a small position yesterday.  If the SPX moved up 7%…

.

SOXL -SOXL & TQQQ were up 3x that.  SOXL was up 30%, and starting a position yesterday was quite profitable for the scalp traders/day traders too.  It should continue higher since this was day 10, and…

.

SPX – I have had 6 or more charts showing this was a likelihood if the ICL was in place.   IF SO: We should see a run toward the 50sma. See the following charts from recent reports….

We needed a break of the trend line to confirm an ICL, but so far a dip to the 10sma wass considered normal. We now have that trend line break too ..

 

In March I wrote that an ICL seemed to be in place, but we could get a 1-2-3-4-5 down too, so ‘stops’ near the lows would be protective.

So Adding to positions or even starting a short term trade LONG yesterday should work out over time too.  I will also discuss a few stocks trades below, since there can still be a low risk entry in that area too.

.

WTIC – After waiting for the Lows to develop in Oils sell off, we got a nice reversal Pop with follow though Friday, so this would be a pause on day 5.  Oil can have 40 day daily cycles, so this is now considered a buy opportunity too, but Oil may chop around or race higher, we just don’t know.  What we do know is that the lows should not be taken out.  Even though OIL paused…

.

XOP – Many Oil / Energy stocks based out already and some moved higher yesterday, even with Oil Red. Even if the XOP only ran to the 50sma & Filled that open gap, it would be a nice $30 to $55 trade. Leverage would obviously amplify that. I  discussed several beaten down energy stocks last week, I’ll point out a few again below.

.

The inverse H&S on Gold has Gold up near the highs already.   Gold has made some very big moves, but the Miners  are not at the highs.  If they play catch up , we would see some very nice percentage moves in many of them.  Let’s discuss The GDX…

.

GDX is again pushing on the resistance of the 50sma & the 200sma. Volume increased a bit and I would expect the Miners to push through, if they are following Golds example, but so far they have been held back again.  This is day 15 of a daily cycle that can be 30 plus days. I mentioned that I was buying or adding to positions last week with the reversal at the 10sma. I will discuss a few Miners later.

.

GDXJ 5 MINUTE – If you were in front of the screen, you saw Miners quickly sell off right before the close yesterday, and  then they reversed higher again. I was hoping that this would sling shot GDX through that 50sma before the close , but it didn’t. This action was just a shake out so far.

.

So as mentioned last week, we now have the lows in place in all sectors and the trades are ‘long‘.  As long as you didn’t chose to invest in Orange Juice, it looks like you’ll be o.k .today. Let’s make some money!   🙂

I will discuss a few trade ideas below. I obviously do not have time to cover as many stocks set ups as I would like after writing the sector reviews above, so I might skip the review in the next report and just focus on some possible trade ideas.   IF I SKIP THE MARKET OVERVIEW TOMORROW , Think about it this way…

1. We know that the lows are in place,

2. We know that it can be volatile and choppy,

3. We know that pull backs can be a place to add to current positions or start a new position, and

4. We know to use stops as protection, right?

5. We take things step by step, and with lows in place, trading long  is the next step.

 

So maybe entering positions at this point, with Lows in place,  despite the possible choppiness is the best way to trade this.   I have been making decent gains out of the lows with several small positions in various sectors, simply because the moves are swift out of the lows.  It isn’t easy with the volatility, but stops will protect you if they aren’t overly tight. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

.

~ALEX

.

 Semiconductors Popped Monday so MU, AMD, CREE, TSEM, etc still look good actually.  The way AMD is set up, it looks as though some stocks may recover better than others. Using the crash of 1929, I have mentioned that we could get months of trading above an ICL, even if a bear market is to follow.  Some stocks will do much better than others, and looking for leaders seems to be the best thing to do.  AMD had a Deep a-b-c drop from almost $60 to $37, but let’s take a look at it now…

.

AMD –  AMD held the 200sma and could break out back to the highs rather quickly. This was a solid company in the Bull Run.  Even buying it at $45 yesterday could give you a run to $57 or more. Those are good gains. This is an INVERSE H&S.

.

** We traded CRWD & WORK as leaders –  Take a look at what CRWD has done. This is EXACTLY what I was talking about above, with some recovering more quickly than others.  CRWD was   Cut -In- Half  from $67.50 to $32.50, but this V-Bottom did a sling shot back near the highs. If this does an a-b-c higher, it will break to new all time highs. It has an inverse H&S  target in the low $80’s. 

 

SNAP – Snap can be bought with a stop under the recent lows.

 

TWTR – This one is still near the lows, but is trying to break back above the 10sma.

 

UBER  filled a gap and reversed. Uber really got crushed , dropping from $42ish to below $15, but then bounced to almost $30  ( 100%).  after a dip to $22, it may run to the 50sma at $32ish ( or more).  AGAIN, THESE SWINGS ARE BIG, so the ride can be tough if your positions are too big.

 

ZOOM VIDEO (ZM) reversed yesterday at the 50sma. This can be bought with a stop. A run back to the highs would be $110 to $160+.  It may or may not continue to be choppy for a bit, since the stochastics is not oversold.

.

MINERS 

.

I want to start by saying that some of the Bigger companies are recovering as swiftly as GOLD.  Others are NOT, especially Silver stocks.  Will they play catch up and get to their former highs like NEM &  Barrick Gold? We hope so…

 As mentioned above : Many of the Silver Stocks lagged the push higher this time.  Usually they lead the way, so this is a bit unusual and hopefully it doesn’t mean anything more than the fact that GOLD is at former highs while Silver is still near the lows, and the entire markets sold off together.  If they play catch up, we could see some good moves, so let me point out just a couple of them.

 

AG– This is a good silver company and if it is to move back up to where it was trading before, the gains would be great. Leaving that thought of a total recovery  aside, even just a run to the red 200sma out of an inverse H&S is $6 to almost $10 from here. Those are big gains. I own this and we’ll see how it plays out.

,

HL -This tiny little move higher was actually a 10% gain yesterday , so you can see from this move:   If these play catch up, they’ll be good money makers.

BTG- Another 10% gainer had BTG breaking above the 200sma, now it faces the 50sma. I would consider this a buy, even if it stalls for a day or 2.

,

KGC–  Last week I said that I bought KGC near $4 and it is now $5. It moved above the 10, 20, 34, 50 & 200sma ( Giving us hope that GDX will do this too). This was Monday morning, did it close above the moving averages?

,

KGC- It closed at the highs of the day and is still a buy if you ask me. The RSI went above 50 , the MACD is strong, and if the sector stays strong, KGC is set up to move higher. I added yesterday and mentioned that I did in the live area.

There are several Miners set up in this way, and I have mentioned some last week and I will discuss more set ups in the next report. Now to

.

ENERGY

.,

AFTER THE RECENT SELL OFF, THESE CAN MOVE BIG  – UP & DOWN – BE VERY CAUTIOUS AND UNDERSTAND YOUR OWN EMOTIONAL MAKE UP UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

 

APA– I bought APACHE because the upside potential looks great and the volume is surging  ( could be short cover & buying).  I’d love to buy & hold this, but when it gets moving the swings might be a bit difficult to withstand.

 

,

MRO – This is the chart I used in last weeks report.  I also own this and it was break even for most of the day yesterday.  When OIL gets moving higher, I would expect Marathon to move higher too. It closed yesterday 3 cents lower than seen here.

,

OKE – I really like this set up, do you see the potential? It already moved from $15 to $25 and pulled back to $20, but it hardly looks like that on this chart-  THAT is what I mean by these move big. $25 to $20 in 1 day? That said, it also may run to the 50sma at $55.  🙂

 

.

PUMP – I have already made great gains on PUMP, actually riding it twice out of these lows. My position was a small starter, but it taught me what to expect when it bounced from $2 to $3 to $2 to $3 in that base action. It looks so easy on the chart,  but when your account has a few thousand shares and you gain and lose a few thousand day after day, it is a whole different feel to it. Now PUMP looks to be moving higher out of the base. I’d like to see the others follow.

Last week I mentioned a  number of these Energy plays, including CLB, PVAC, WTI, LPI, AROC, ERF, etc etc .

.

 I also bought EDXC because they released their earnings and the stock started to move. If you have been at Chartfreak for a while, then you know that I used to own this as a long term trade, because I liked the company.  It then ramped up into a blow off top as the business did well.  I may hold this longer term again, because …

 

EDXC long term chart :  After a long base & parabolic run, you can get a new base that forms and eventually steadily works its way back to the former highs if the company is still doing ok.   The Pop yesterday was due to thier earnings report.  I may try to hold this new position for a while, even though it may not be quite ready yet.  It can be choppy, since I may be right at the lows, but it is cheap and the RISK REWARD has returned to what it was when it ran from $0.06 to $0.75 in 2019.