Tuesday April 28 – Bullishness In Action
FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT: A daily cycle for The SPX can last for roughly 40 days, and I would expect a ‘peak’ to be right translated coming out of an ICL, so this may not have peaked yet. I was looking for a possible bounce to the 61.8% Fib number. Friday was day 23.
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SPX – On Monday day 24 the General Markets started to continue higher, and we have a new high, making this right translated ( as expected for a first daily cycle). We’ll see how it reacts if & when it gets to the 61.8% and then the 200 sma. So far we have our bullish move out of the ICL, but check this out…
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The NASDAQ already passed that 61.8 level and the 200 sma. So far our run out of the ICL is holding up well, despite the worlds economic set backs. Many stocks are doing well, we’ll see how they do with earnings. AMD is a stock doing very well, and they have earnings released this week.
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WTIC – Oil actually dropped over 25% at one point, and yet it seems normal, because many Oil stocks gapped down and ended up closing green AGAIN. SO with that, this could be a 1-2-3-4-5 move with the lows in place.
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XOP -This is what I am talking about. Oil was down 25%? You wouldn’t know it if I just showed you the XOP crossing the 50sma. I have discusses a nuber of Oil stocks like MRO, APA, OAS, LPI, DNR, WTI, BE, TSUK, OKE, CVI, CLB, PVAC, etc etc . You should have a watch list if you are interested in trading this sector, but ‘warning’… it does move fast! Buy with price near support.
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GOLD #1 dropped Monday and we are watching for a dip to a dcl. They usually bottom ‘ROUGHLY‘ around day 33-36, so with this being day 29, we could see a dcl this week. A tag of the 50 sma has been mentioned as a possibility…
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GOLD #2 (Same chart) – Day 25 has also been mentioned as a possible early dcl, but it also does not match normal criteria to me. Look at the MACD- This looks toppy. Also, I expect to see the 10sma bend down, and it is doing that right now, so this looks like the dcl drop has arrived to me. We’ll see how Miners react.
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SILVER is crawling under the 50 sma and it could be building energy to not only break the 50sma, but to break the 50 sma & slice through the 200sma too. THIS could light a real fire under the Silver stocks. Silver stocks BARLEY dropped Monday and most are just going sideways. AND AS MENTIONED LAST WEEK…
AND AS MENTIONED last week, some of these Silver Stocks do not look like they’ll break down through support. This was April 24th…
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HL is still crawling above the support levels.
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MINERS:
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GDX APRIL 24– I mentioned that Miners might drop with Gold or they may just go sideways like they did the last time Gold dropped $122…
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I ALSO USED THIS CHART : My thinking here was to show The most bullish possibility.
I know that you remember me saying that recently MINERS simply bull flagged when Gold dropped $122 , falling 4 out of 5 days, right? This would be GDX doing that again. A simple sideways chop to the 10sma and then a run higher. This is where selling would not be good, so buying at the 10sma might be the answer for those that have cash. The GREEN BOX formed as GOLD dropped $122. THAT is very bullish.
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GDX on Monday is following that sideways crawl ( so far).
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Yes, GDX can drop to the 50 sma, but either way this is a very bullish set up and you want to own Miners for that 2nd daily cycle run. With that in mind, I also mentioned …
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With that in mind, I also mentioned that some individual Miners will ignore any dip and do their own things. I am seeing that now …
VNNHF – Like this, up 16% as it breaks from a sideways box consolidation or sort of a flag.
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And SGSVF burst right through the 200 sma after crawling along under it.
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MAG jumped 20% Monday.
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NSRPF is crawling along under the 200 sma and will probably end up doing what SGSVF did, because it is surrounded by support.
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And then you have the rocket ships like NG, DRD, KGC, FNV, NEM, etc that are not pulling back to offer an entry.
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SAND broke to new highs and this could just run away, but if we get a dcl pull back in Gold and SAND or KGC or MAG, etc. briefly get caught in the selling over the next few days, any of these leaders are a buy. They can back test this area at a dcl.
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The Miners are a Bullish sector for sure. Even though we expect a dcl, the sector as a whole is pausing, consolidating big gains from the run out of the ICL, but it is not dropping quickly and some Miners are still popping. I believe that they are setting up for another run, so we want to be invested in Miners. If you have cash, be ready to buy that reversal too.
Other sectors are also really bullish looking, since everything sold off all at once and they’re now moving up out of their lows together.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading, and I’ll have a few thoughts below too ( One by request).
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~ALEX
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BY REQUEST: Do I see Gold peaking this summer and then selling off into the year end?
ANSWER: My idea of what could happen is slightly different from ‘selling off into the end of the year’, so let me show you an idea that I will monitor as time goes by. I am also being told that some are calling for an ICL at $1400 after this run. That seems awfully steep for a Bull, so I’ll address that too…
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GOLD ICLs #1 The Big Picture of GOLD is that it is Bullishly running higher after breaking from a multiyear base. Notice the ICLs running higher and higher ( except for the recent crash). Some ICL drops in Bull Runs are sideways and mild rather than deep, and $1400 would be too deep if you ask me, so I want to keep that in mind. Now let me show you something…
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Here I’m taken the May 2019 run & drop to the ICL at the lower blue arrow, and adding it to where we are now, at the 2nd blue arrow. If I add that 2019 run here, Gold runs to about $1900 and then only drops/chops to $1800 at the ICL. THAT IS EVEN HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT PRICE. See the chart.
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If that happens, it also shows us that ‘time-wise’ that ICL can come at about Oct/November. That means that we’d be rallying into the end of the year, not selling off into the end of the year. Remember, I got this by simply copying a real IC Run and overlaying it, so it CAN happen in that time period. AND NOW…
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Let’s not forget the big picture for GOLD – Even with that recent Crash, the recovery shows a BULL MARKET.
GOLD IS AT 2020 Highs. The SPX has not recovered the 2020 highs, NASDAQ is well below the 2020 highs, but Gold is at new recent highs, so I am not expecting a deep ICL drop after this run. It may look something like this.
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THIS is when money will start to pile into Miners and everyone will start to recognize the Bullish set up.
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Medical Marijuana shops were deemed ‘essential’ during the Covid-shut down, and they did not shut down. MJ Stocks are still setting up bullishly out of their lows. From a recent report…
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I also noticed that TLRY & CGC have finally formed what I think is a bullish set up ready to go higher. I bought it and posted this in the live area too. I got in under $7.23, this has been riding the 20sma nicely…
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TLRY popped 20% and then sold off a bit, but I think that it is ready to continue higher.
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At that time, I also mentioned that CGC was looking like a similar set up. It was at $14.75 when I mentioned that , and here it closed at $15.59. This looked ready to burst above that 50sma. It is punched tight and these can be very explosive.
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CGC – I bought this after the open when it dropped to the $15.50 area. It burst above that 50sma as expected and it closed up 12%. It ran for 6 days in march, so maybe we see something like this? I expect at least $20.
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So I then noticed and bought CRON and mentioned it in the live commenting area too. These are good set ups and this may run to the 200 sma.
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CWBHF this is exactly what I look for, and it looks ready to go at any time. Watch it Tuesday.
There are many others in this sector, even MJ itself. You want to be careful if earnings are to be released.
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CLB is an Energy stock that I mentioned. You can see that these are ignoring OIl, this looks like it may crawl & then break above that 50sma. So far $7 to $16+ is a great trade. Many are doing this since mentioned 3 weeks ago.
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I saw WTI drop and posted this during the first 1/2 hr of trading Monday. I pointed to support and mentioned that I’d like to see price hold there and even reverse as a sign of continued bullishness, and…
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WOW! Even with OIL DOWN 25%, WTI reversed at support and even closed green! This has now traveled from under $1.25 to $3.00 with OIL Crashing down. Not an easy ride, it has been very bumpy, but these are great gains in the medium term.
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The BIOTECH SECTOR WORKING ON CORONA VACCINES OR TREATMENT:
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INO – Many of these Companies took off initially in March and we traded INO, NVAX, IBIO, VXRT, etc. Then they based out and this looked ready to resume the run from a base, so I said I bought this and posted it as a buy. This is April 20…
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INO -Days later it is at $15. These are exceptional gains, but also a bit risky and not for everyone, because of the way they move. NVAX also ran to new highs. Lets look at another…
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VXRT – I bought this in the flag on the Pop off of the green 200sma. Mentioned it in the live area and put this in the report, it should continue to form the cup and I drew a possible handle…
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VXRT Did form that cup QUICKLY and was building a handle. I wouldn’t recommend buying it this extended, but if you still owned it…
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VXRT burst higher again, up 30%+ at one point, closing up 22%. I sold mine, and I may regret that, but I wanted to buy some less extended ones, So…
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I pointed out DVAX Friday and also as it broke out through a down trend and the 50 sma Monday Morning. I bought it….
DVAX is a buy and was up over 25%, but sold down by the end of the day. This CAN still run higher and that volume makes me think that it will. A run back to $7 is almost a 100% move from current price.
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VIR was also pointed out as looking ready to go. It Popped and sold down Monday, I still think it is a buy, and I own it.
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IBIO , NVAX, and INO were one of the first ones that I traded. This was extremely hard to hold with the large swings in March, but you can see that it has stabilized and is now a tight base. This has been popping here and there, and when these pop and run, they can really run. That would be Big Gains if it runs back to that high volume high when this base completes. The sector has come to life.
