Thursday April 2nd
On day 7 the General Markets gapped down to the 10sma. So far it is not a damaged chart, but a close under the 10sma could drop price rather quickly. If they reverse higher from the 10sma here, it remains a bullish set up. I will say this: I do NOT like the look of MU, AMD, AAPL, SQ, GOOG, etc etc. They look weak now and closed under their 10sma. Let’s go to the charts…
.
SPX – At this point the bounce was a 38.2% Fib bounce. A bullish view would be that the drop to the 10sma hold price and then we could get an a-b-c bounce off of that 10sma. We could get to the ‘c’ on the chart. However: It also can break down to the gap at the lows, so use stops. Let me show you something…
VIX – This is a critical point, in my opinion. A break out higher with the VIX could be saying that the general markets are in a L.T. Daily Cycle and heading lower.
.
SPX – On this chart I am pointing out that Swings are bigger these days. Anyone that went in too Heavy lost 4% Wednesday , however anyone going heavy leverage lost much more. As mentioned in all of my recent reports, smaller portions are easier to ride with the current volatility. SOXL & TQQQ lost 13% & 16% yesterday alone, nd it was a Gap down, so the losses were instant.
,
SPX – We do not have a ‘confirmed ICL’, so there is this possibility of a L.T. Final Daily Cycle. I mentioned this possibility in my weekend report, and I have repeatedly stated that smaller positions would be easier managed.
,
WTIC – Oil did not react to the inventory report, so it remains a choppy and unreliable set up. Oil and Oil stocks are Not a Buy without a lot of risk at this point. They can go either way.
.
GOLD – Gold dropped toward the 10sma ( I am using the 13 sma) and on Day 12 it reversed higher, it did not sell off with the markets Wednesday. Also Remember that GOLD dropped over $40 Tuesday, and Miners did NOT Follow.
.
SILVER – Silver is also at the 10sma.
.
GDX – As the markets sold off, the Miners never broke below the lows that they opened at, so they did not go along with the general market sell off. They also did not follow Gold lower when it dropped $40 Tuesday. That can be hinting at bullishness.
.
GDX Same chart – I am also pointing out that we used to get 2%-3% moves, with JNUG & NUGT moving 6-9%, but now GDX is moving with larger swings too. The MACD is bullish, the reversal at the 10sma is bullish, and a break above day 8 would be very bullish for Miners. Read the chart.
.
We need to see how things play out here for the General Markets and Miners. So far they are above their 10 sma, but several of the stocks ( tech) looked like they were experiencing heavy selling and the VIX is at a critical point. Thursday should tell us a lot.
Several Miners actually started to look bullish yesterday too, so I discussed that in the live commenting area. Remember, Gold sold off $40 Tuesday, yet Miners did not follow it down. Now many were starting to react bullishly around their 10sma. I will point some of those trade ideas out below. If Miners move higher away from the 10 sma Thursday, they could be set up for another leg higher. We’ll see what Thursday brings our way. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
BARRICK (GOLD), NEWMONT (NEM) and a few other Miners actually never broke down, they simply pulled back to the 10sma and reversed higher yesterday. It was a good place to add if you owned them…
.
SA – This is a bullish set up. The down trend was already broken and SA only pulled back to the 10 sma. You could buy that with a tight stop.
.
I mentioned that I bought KGC and GORO as they crossed the 10sma, and I posted this chart after the first hour of trading. I was liking the set ups in Miners, because they did not sell down with the markets and as I mentioned before, they barely sold off when Gold dropped $40 Tuesday.
.
KGC actually closed up 11% without any news, so these may be getting ready to move higher. Volume increased too.
.
.
EQX – I also mentioned in the live area that I decided to buy EQX as it started to break the down trend line. A close above it would be encouraging. It then closed at $7, a bit higher from here and above that trend line. Now I just need follow through.
.
I was watching GTBDT and it had the same volume that it has had on entire days recently, and was pushing on the 10sma. I was watching GTBDF, ELYGF, and LDGTF for possible entry. This was at 2 p.m.
.
GTBDT actually shot up 10% near the close, and then closed up 6%. I really think that I should have bought it at the close, but I didn’t. This does look good now. LGDTF also improved by the close, and I didn’t buy that either.
.
SSRM– I mentioned in that live area that I was watching for SSRM to break above that 10sma after it filled the gap. It went on to close up 8% and closed exactly at the 10sma. I didn’t buy it, but I do like it.
,
Yesterday I mentioned some commodity stocks like CLF, X, FCX, HBM that looked bullishly set up. They also did not really get sold off with the markets drop. ARE THEY INDICATING THAT THE SELL OFF IN THE GENERAL MARKETS IS NOTHING MORE THAN A DROP TO THE 10 sma? Possibly, but that VIX still looks like a warning sign for the markets. Let’s take a closer look and discuss a bit further. …
.
CLF remains above the 10sma.
,
X -US Steel shot higher and drifted back down, but it still closed up for the day with the general markets dropping to the 10sma. You could buy it with a stop at the trend line.
,
AA– Not yet over the 10sma, Alcoa still did not sell off with the General Markets dropping to the 10sma.
,
AA AS A WARNING: IF THE MARKETS DO SELL OFF, these could break down, we saw that with AA in February, but so far they are resisting the selling.
