Friday April 17th – A Few Picks
I want to start by pointing out again that the NASDAQ & SOX did push above their 50 sma, so they are leading at this point.
We find the SPX on day 17 and it has yet to break out, but the set up is normally viewed as Bullish. Since I am viewing this as the first daily cycle out of an ICL, it would be bullish, whether it does or does not roll over later into a bear market. So for now these markets have a bullish tendency, and I will discuss our recent stock picks below at the end of the report.
RIGHT NOW THE GENERAL MARKETS ARE BULLISHLY SET UP IN THE FIRST DAILY CYCLE, BUT THIS DAILY CYCLE WILL TOP SOON TOO. THEN WE WILL DIP DOWN TO A DCL. I DID HAVE THIS REMINDER IN YESTERDAYS REPORT. THE FIRST DAILY CYCLE IS BULLISH, AND WE’LL WATCH HOW THINGS UNFOLD AFTER THE SECOND DAILY CYCLE STARTS.
NASDAQ 2000 top – That ‘2000 top’ did get above the 50sma too, twice. Both of the first 2 daily cycles reached the 61.8% fib number, but it still eventually rolled over into a bear market. These reminders serve us well – we use stops as we go forward.
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Oil remained at THE LOWS Thursday, but it is late in Oils daily cycle, so I would think that a low should be forming. The XOP, XLE, and OIH seem to be leading the way out of the lows, with a higher low as OIL breaks to a new low. I have been trading some OIL stocks ( And they Move Fast!), so it is possible that they will do a 2nd leg higher when Oil starts to move off the lows, so…
I mentioned that I re-netered a position in APA. You can see the first run was a whopping 165+%! Many of the other Stocks that I mentioned ( and briefly traded) had Big Gains too, but they are extremely volatile and hard to hold. That said, these are NOT for everyone, and they should only be SMALL POSITIONS. The list included APA, CLB, PVAC, MRO, BE, VLO, AROC, SLCA, OKE, WTI, OAS, WLL, LPI, etc.
GOLD has been going sideways to the 8 ema & 10sma. I feel that we should see 1 more push higher, before a dip into a dcl, but we’ll have to wait and see. This is day 22 of what is usually roughly a 33 day daily cycle.
SILVER is pinched between the 10sma & 50sma, and this often leads to a break out higher. The later it gets in this daily cycle, the less chance we have of a break out, but we still have plenty of time for one now.
GDX seems to be leading the way higher. Today is Friday, so this could drop to the 10sma heading into the weekend & POP Monday – or – it may break out. It is a bullish set up so far as a possible bull flag.
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~ALEX
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To show the Overall Bullishness of the sector , GOLD & NEM are leaders. Barrick has broken out over the 2016 highs.
And many may not realize this, but KGC is also above the 2016 highs too. After a slam down shake out, this sector is starting to break out and should make a run to the 2011 highs if it remains bullish.
So I have pointed out many Miners like GORO, HL, AG, CDE, etc that are crawling under their 50 sma. This is usually bullish action that leads to a break out, so
1. These were recommended weeks ago closer to the lows, and
2. If you still own them, I recommend holding them or even adding to positions if they break out in this first daily cycle.
HL is another example of a Miner crawling under the 50 sma, and could be poised to break out during this first daily cycle. It may then back test the 50 sma for the dcl ( both would be buy opportunities).
GOING BACK TO TECH:
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AMD ON APRIL 5th, I thought that Semiconductors were a buy set up. I pointed out AMD, TSEM, SOXL, etc . This is similar to the set up in Miners now- pushing on the 50sma.
AMD then broke out and crawled along the 50sma, still a buy on April 13 as an inverse H&S pointed out here…
AMD – This is AMD in yesterdays report. I mentioned that it can return right to the highs if the General Markets continue higher, so…
Yesterday it did continue higher and is now back at the highs. So lets go back to the other Semiconductors…
AMAT gained 3.6% yesterday and I still think that it can follow the leader ( AMD).
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TSEM has also been mentioned as a semiconductor stock to watch. It ran from $12 to $19 off of the lows, and could now go from $17 to $26 if it breaks out (Stop under the 50sma after the break out).
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Not long ago we discussed which stocks could survive the Coronavirus. ZOOM (ZM), ABT, COSTCO (COST), AMZN, NFLX, Food delivery services , etc came to mind. I did not invest in all of these, but lets take a look at a few of those…
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NFLX was a candidate because during quarantine, everyone orders Movies. If anyone took that trade? That is a major break out, along with…
AMZN is a company that delivers on line orders, so we would have expected it to do well, but this is really a fantastic chart. Notice that AMZN actually had its crash at the end of 2019, and has simply gone sideways for over a year. Now we see a break out from a very long consolidation. If you see a bull flag form where the XYZ is, it is a BUY.
I mentioned ETSY on March 26 as another company that does business on line & could recover. It had already done a $30 to $40 run. I did NOT buy this, but it looked like a V-Bottom recovery
ETSY dipped down after that ( 1-2-3-4-5 ?), but has now almost doubled from the March lows. Why show these now?…
ABT – On March 30 I pointed out that Abbott labs came out with a coronavirus test that worked very quickly. It Popped and reversed lower, but…
ABT – after 2 down days, it took off riding the 8 ema to new highs.
Why show these again now? They may be too extended to enter now, but there are other stocks that can recover too.
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SPOTIFY is trying to break a down trend and already broke above the 50sma. This may crawl along the top of the 50sma, but if you like Spotify – this could actually be bought as a break out of the 50sma, and use the 50 as a stop.
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YESTERDAY I POINTED OUT WORK & CRWD AGAIN: They both are moving higher…
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From yesterday: CRWD – This was a strong recovery, I mentioned it a while back. It actually looks like it could do another run higher as an inverse H&S. The RSI is above the 50 % area and it looks to be working its way through resistance.
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WORK at $27.86 Wednesday: was also mentioned a while back and now it has a similar set up. These are V-Bottom recoveries, WORK is now an inverse H&S.
WORK Thursday: It is continuing higher, but is still a buy as it is about to break out to new highs.
