Friday March 20th
SPX – I have mentioned that these reversals would most likely fail, however…
However we are now within the time that a dcl can form.
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SPX – Most recent daily cycles lasted 39 days, but this crash was so fast & steep that it can finish up at any time. Watch for a break above the 8ema / 10 sma for further confirmation. I do see ‘Slight’ divergence.
WTIC – It has been the same story for Oil, but OIL SLAMMED down 25% Wednesday. Thursday it pushed higher so watch the 8 ema & 10sma here too. I have also mentioned…
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I have also mentioned that many Oil stocks are not dropping with Oil to new lows, instead they are basing & even Popping 20-100% on any given day. Even when OIL crashed down 25%, many did not break to new lows.
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WLL – I have been mentioning WLL, LPI, OAS, WTI, TUSK, and others, so you can see that WLL did NOT drop when Oil slammed down 25%. THAT is impressive to me, so I took a small position again…
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WLL – And this is the chart as of the close. I feel that 1 of these days these are just going to double & triple and this chart shows a Bullish move in the indicators as Price sold off and Oil Crashed. This actually closed up 35%! That hardly looks like a good move, but these move FAST ( Note: They move in both directions while its choppy). So this sector wants to go higher, and I think that when OIL bottoms, these can fly.
CONSERVATIVE TRADERS CAN WAIT UNTIL THESE START TRENDING HIGHER, THEY WILL STILL OFFER GREAT GAINS AND LESS VOLATILITY AT THAT POINT.
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USD – LOOK – AT – THAT! The USD crashed down , broke all lows, and then rocketed higher in a V-Bottom. Why did I write “Imagine if Gold does what the USD is doing?” on the chart?
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GOLD – Well Gold also crashed through many of the recent lows and I do think that EVENTUALLY Gold will put in a low and it could react sharply higher, the way that we saw Miners take off higher. AND THEN THERE’s SILVER…
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SILVER – Silver Crashed, Ran all of the stops, yet Silver stocks look to be setting up rather bullishly. Lets zoom in…
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SILVER – It looks like SILVERS CRASH may be forming a dcl, possible ICL? It will take time for an ICL to confirm, but we buy the dcl and just go from there. I see Silver as day 34, perfect timing for a low, and Silver stocks are looking bullish too.
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GDX – With GOLD and SILVER sitting right on their lows, Miners actually Popped and then put in a higher low this week. They had a crash down low last Friday and have since bounced very strongly and are attempting to get above that 10sma…
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Unfortunately both GDX & GDXJ ran above their 10sma Thursday , but sold off into the close. A close above the 10sma would help us to confirm a dcl, but even though they dropped and closed back under the 10sma, there is HOPE! …
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There is Still HOPE, because on Wednesday MAG, SVM, and a few other miners did the same thing that GDX & GDXJ did on Thursday. They popped over the 10sma, and then sold off into the close on Wednesday. On Thursday they recovered that 10sma, so there is hope that GDX will do the same Friday.
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So we do NOT have a confirmed DCL in SPX, NASDAQ, DJIA, WTIC, GOLD, SILVER, or GDX, but the timing is right in several of those and we’ll have to see what happens on Friday – the last trading day of the week. We did have that slam down in Miners Last Friday, so I am cautious about that, but so far the set up looks bullish. The volatility of these markets is tough. It reflects the fear & uncertainty around us right now, but even slam down bear markets with all bad news suddenly have very strong Dead cat bounce rallies. I believe that we will see one soon in many of these sectors. Traders use stops, and conservative traders usually wait for a dcl. Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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SVM – so even though GDX didn’t close above the 10sma, some Miners like SVM are, and they could be the next ‘Leaders’. SVM is also breaking above a down trend line.
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I mentioned MAG in the early trading in our live area, along with SVM and a few others. By Midday I was pointing out that MAG moved up another 11% above the 10sma and its down trend too. Notice that the RSI moved near that 50% area too, so this may be forming a V-Bottom low and may be a leader.
MAG already popped from $4 to $9? Wow. These Miners can make up the losses rather quickly once they get going. For example…
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AG was $4 last Friday. It dropped to $5 Thursday morning, and reversed and closed at $6. How long will it take to get to $12?
It could be rather quick, and that is 100% from here, and 200% from the low last Friday 🙂 This is why we want to catch the miners after a sharp sell off, once these get running, you will make some very nice gains.
PAAS running back to the highs of 1 month ago is a gain of 140%. It is possibly trying to bottom right now, tagging that 10sma each day. A solid break out higher is a buy , unless you want to start a Small starter in the chop- with a stop. Add on a break of the 10sma.
NVAX was a buy recently, but I wanted to show you this for another reason. That POP and sell off is what the Miners did, right? They ran up but couldn’t hold the highs. Is this ALWAYS bearish?
Well, NVAX saw that happen at $9 too, and then it moved higher right away, so it is NOT always bearish if there is profit taking after a good day.
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MANY of the Oil stocks are Popping, and I have been looking for ones that have a certain day trader set up, to trade or scalp.
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PUMP – This one was really set up very nicely. I posted this and bought it, because I was looking at intra-day charts and this chart and I was seeing what often becomes a nice POP out of these large sell offs. It had capitulation, a wedge formed, various indicators intra-day indicators were very bullish. I mentioned that I bought it and would wait for the Pop. ED mentioned BE as a possible energy trade too..
PUMP – This does not look like much, but it was a 40% POP, and that is a lot! As usual, I sold 1/2 and can let the rest ride in either direction, but if it finishes the pop to the 10sma, that would be 60% more.
BE– Ed got his 40% Pop too. Many of these Energy stocks are trying to bottom, but it is a choppy sector too.
CLX – Thinking of Bullish stocks that resisted the sell off due to coronavirus. Clorox has been a winner, and it MIGHT Bull Flag here, so it can go on a watch list.
AWR – Got Water?
