February 12th – Wednesday Trading
SPX – Nothing has changed technically here. There is the real concern that this could become left translated & roll over, since we are due for an ICL drop, but this Doji is not uncommon by itself. On this chart I’m pointing out the exact same set up as the last run ( so far). We are at a tricky time in the markets. They have been bullish, with shallow pull backs, but as mentioned…
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NASDAQ – Just a reminder that these markets may accelerate for a couple weeks and become that parabolic top, and THEN drop into an ICL. If so, a rally can become very hot, and then die Very Quickly. I saw this in 2000 and it was Boom to Bust, but stocks had very fast gains for a couple of weeks, that is why I chose AMD, SQ, and a few others as possibly ready to rally quickly to new highs. Notice…
AMD – I could see this doing another $10 run or so before peaking, especially if markets run away higher. If they just roll into an ICL, this top could look similr to the 2018 top. I will NOT ride it down, I use stops.
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I would think that when these General Markets top & begin to drop, Gold will then begin to pop. The parabolic run in the Tech bubble that ended in 1999-2000 started the Bull Run in Gold. The hard part is knowing the timing for these changes, so we continue to watch for clues. At least this time, the Bull Run in Gold has already clearly begun.
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WTIC – Oil may be trying to bottom, we are due for a dcl. No confirmation of that yet, but Wednesday is the Oil Inventory report. That report could pop or drop Oil so be patient if you have been waiting for this sector. I discussed double bottoms that often form in XOP ( Gush), so jumping in early can stop you out.
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GOLD – Gold is in a long choppy consolidation, and as pointed out, we got the same thing in the first daily cycle, but it did end up breaking out late in that cycle. So far we have no break of the lows yet, and no break out higher. The difference between the 2 areas is that the MACD seems to be weakening during this chop, but so far the lows are in tact.
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GDX & GDXJ are still sideways sloppy choppy too.
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GDXJ – There is a possible triangle forming in GDXJ. If this were to break out & run higher, it could get to the $47+ area.
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We Aren’t seeing a lot of change on a day to day basis yet, so it requires patience to allow things to continue to chop until a directional move shows us how the various sectors are going to play out. There are trades set ups for traders, but the chop can be difficult and cause stops to be hit. Sometimes just sitting in cash can allow time to clear the mind and prepare for the next proper low risk set up. Stay in cash & wait for your trade or keep trades small and maybe even a shorter term, Short term trading is often not what many here want to do. They want to buy & ride a position for at least a little while. The SOLARS Might be the place for that, since they have been a bit choppy, yet trending higher. I will discuss that area below.
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Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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SPWR – I did mention the solar set ups in January, and this was SPWR popping from a base in the $7 & $8 area. It was a buy..
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SPWR – On Feb 5th the progress of the run was shown as a possible rounding base. It was now above $9…
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SPWR – Today it is pushing on the 200sma, and Other Solar stocks are doing well, so this could be bought with a stop under $9 – the recent low. Let me show you how some other Solar stocks are performing…
CSIQ – This had a great run in November. It then became another buy at the back test of the 50 as it crosses above the 200 sma, but I think that it is even a buy now. This is a good set up that may break to new highs and run. Also, stare at this chart set up and memorize it…
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JKS – This was the same set up as CSIQ above with the 50 & 200sma & it popped almost 20% yesterday.
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ENPH was recommended several times in December on these charts. Here it was breaking out at $23 after the buy of the back test of the 200sma at $18.
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ENPH – Then it formed a bull flag as a buy at $24
ENPH – And at $27 I was looking for it to get to prior highs and form a cup around $35.
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ENPH – Today it is $40. The solar sector ( this company provides components to it) has done well.
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RUN – Notice how RUN also came out of the lows, back tested the 200sma, and continued higher. So CSIQ & SPWR are may be playing catch up in a sector that has done well.
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OR – The Miners have been choppy, and Earnings are next week, but this set up is really nice. You can see an inverse H&S that faithfully climbed the 24 sma and is now breaking out above the 200sma. This is a buy because it has not broken down with all of the choppiness in Miners. Some Miners, like ELYGF, may buck the choppiness.
NAK is an interesting set up. It has put in a series of higher lows, broke above the 50 sma with a strong volume pop, and seems to have capitulation lows in place.
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We have discussed a few different Tech stocks like TWTR, PINS, etc that already have earnings in place. I Keep those on a watch list, since they should start trending higher after they consolidate the gains. IF the tech sector goes parabolic, these are still near the lows, but can play catch up quickly by running to recent highs. If we drop to the ICL soon, these may back just test the 50sma & bounce around, but they are worth watching ( or owning on a reversal) since they already beat on earnings. Below are a few stocks in recent reports, but there are many more. A list is good to have to check the charts daily.
TWTR received a very big positive reaction to those earnings. I did not think that this gap would fill, but has dropped to the 8 ema. It could start trending higher when it finally reverses from the pull back. I’d keep it on a check list.
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PINS – This was a pretty big move from $17 to $27. That big pop to $27 last Friday was an earnings release, when Pinterest announced that revenue topped 1 Billion dollars. It is doing a gap fill.
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I ALSO MENTIONED THAT GENE EDITING PHARMA STOCKS LIKE CRSP, NTLA, and EDIT were setting up bullishly. NTLA tried to get above that 50sma yesterday.
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CRWD FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT – The set up in CRWD , ROKU & WORK were discussed…
CRWD popped a bit and earnings is not scheduled to be released for over a Month, well into March.
THIS WAS ROKU IN YESTERDAYS REPORT – I wrote ” Roku looks like it wants to break out, but they have earnings coming out Thursday, so it may be risky to buy it until then. Put it on a watch list?” It actually popped over $4 yesterday, but again- earnings are due out Thursday.
GBTC – I pointed out Bitcoin ( and some Blockchain stocks) as bullish in December & January and here GBTC was now breaking above the 200sma …
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GBTC – Now at $13, it can eventually run to prior highs. SO I was thinking that blockchain stocks / companies often benefit too.
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RIOT – I posted RIOT BLOCKCHAIN in February and stated that I owned it. It didn’t break below that 50sma and Bitcoin was still rising, so I still own it. I thought that it could run to that resistance line at $1.80, maybe pull back, and break higher…
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RIOT – It was choppy, but suddenly popped 16% Tuesday to that $1.80 area and dipped into the close. The whole sector seemed to Pop…
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OSTK – This was OSTK as a flag like run in January.
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OSTK – It popped & chopped since then, but remained above the 50 sma. Tuesday it popped too.
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OSTK – As a close up, the set up tagged the 50sma twice and is trying to push higher. I own it with a stop at the 50sma.
