Wednesday February 5th
SPX – Weeks ago I was been saying that we expect a drp & then a daily cycle low. This is day 2 and we should move higher as expected. So while we were prepared for this drop & recovery by using cycle counts, we just don’t know if this will continue to rally in melt up phase like the last 3 runs? Or will it roll over into an ICL? So with that, we use a stop & let it ride. UPRO, TQQQ, etc are valid trades going forward.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Even if this market rolls over as left translated, it may not roll over for some time. We have been seeing 40 day long daily cycles, and that means that it could move higher for several days ( even as many as 12-18) and still be left translated in a 40 day cycle. That could be 3 – 4 weeks higher, right? So it may be worth the trade to many that buy & hold for a while.
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WTIC – I am guessing that this gravestone doji candle will be the low for Oil too. Today is the Oil Inventory report though, so it is SAFER to wait for a close above the 10sma. I still feel that we are very close to the daily cycle low.
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XOP – A break above the 10sma ( & a close there) would be a swing low.
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USD – The USD put in an ICL, and that may be a dcl 3 days ago. This may have a part in contributing to Golds choppiness.
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GOLD – Gold is still at the highs, and that was pointed out as a resistance area. It had a pretty big drop on Tuesday, but the daily cycle lows are still in place. Gold remains choppy, and when I hear people say that “They will never let Gold rally, you can’t fight the Fed, etc etc ” I just can’t believe that people are still saying that as a reason to ‘fear’ things. GOLD RAN $1000 to $1600. LOOK AT THE CHART. Gold is at multiyear highs and is at resistance, and that is with the markets steadily climbing. If “THEY” are working to hold gold down, they are losing that battle. This is a normal bullish looking chart set up, and consolidations and choppiness happen in every market.
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GDX – I got called away Tuesday morning at around 8 a.m. , so I pointed out that the DCL lows are being threatened and posted this in the live area when I got back from helping family at around 11:30…
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GDX – A midday reversal caused the dcl not to break. In fact, GDX broke that 50sma & recovered. lets zoom in…
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GDX – GDX dropped but it recovered that 50 sma by the close. Let me show you what I wrote in yesterdays report…
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NOTICE THE TREND LINE on the GDX chart: I mentioned that that could also be a stop, because a break of that would likely mean that the choppiness could continue…
I WAS STOPPED OUT OF MY LEVERAGE YESTERDAY WHEN I LEFT FOR THE MORNING, BUT I STILL OWN A FEW INDIVIDUAL MINERS. I WILL RE-ENTER THAT TRADE WHEN I SEE A SET UP THAT LOOKS LIKE LEVERAGE WILL BE LESS CHOPPY.
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BARRACK – BARRACK dropped to the 50sma and bounced, this chart still looks bullish…
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NEM – NEM dropped to a trend line and bounced, so this look bullish too, but…
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RGLD – There are other Miners that are not looking quite as bullish. Since RGLD is trapped or crawling under its 50 sma, I thought that it was struggling, but even though it is a bit CHOPPY…
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RGLD is actually riding between the 50 & 200sma is actually a very bullish pinched situation . If it breaks higher, this Royalty company could really do well.
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There are still several individual Miners that are choppy, but they remain Bullish. That said, some of our former leading Silver stocks are not looking quite as good during this choppy time. Some of our former Silver stocks like AG, CDE, SVM, etc may be dropping down to their 200sma. Basically, we are enduring a choppy consolidation that should resolve higher over time. How much time remains to be seen. The General Markets have turned higher after putting in a dcl, so I will review a few charts below , as I did yesterday. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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TSLA – This is just not sustainable. A parabolic run is awesome, no doubt about it, but I’ve seen this before & this really cannot keep going without consolidation ( Bull Flag) or crashing down. I am posting this chart because I just had people ask why I don’t recommend this as a buy in my daily report going forward? “At this rate, it could be at $2000 by next week!” I cannot recommend this, because it could also easily be at $600 next week. This is by no means a low risk buy signal to me.
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WORK – I did trade ‘WORK’ in December though. If the markets are set up to do their own parabolic run, this looks like it wants to break from the base & run. It could be bought with a reasonable stop.
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ZUO – After a large gap down last May, ZUO has formed a Long Base. This might make a nice trade if it breaks into that gap area since it has no resistance on the way to $20. A Gap open would be a big island bottom.
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CRWD – CRWD dropped to the 50sm on the market dip and is at new recent highs already. That was $55 to $65 and it may just continue higher.
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BE – Do you remember this Energy stock that I traded? I loved the potential of this set up under $3 …
BE – And it ran very well, up to $7. Well, as Energy sold off I kind of lost track of it until Ed mentioned it in the live trading area, so I looked it up…
BE – It actually looks great. That may have been a bit hard to ride, but it remains bullish. It ran from that $7 to $10, and then after that normal drop to $9, it is oversold & is now back at $10 in 2 days. If you can take the big drops, this may be a buy & hold candidate as it continues to travel higher.
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PTON – On Jan 17 I recommended PTON at just under $32. After the big market sell off, did it get crushed?
PTON – It only dropped for 3 days and then reversed higher, so now it is at $34 and as a new company listing, it may be running for new all time highs. EARNINGS RELEASE IS TODAY
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MJ STOCKS CONTINUE SETTING UP
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ACB – I posted this yesterday as a buy if it breaks out…
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ACB – ACB did break out ( I believe earnings will be released next Monday).
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CRON – After a break out, CRON back tested the 50sma and is holding up. It closed up 4% Tuesday and is a low risk buy . Earnings are due at the end of February so you have time to buy with a stop at the 50sma & test it out to see if it will run into earnings .
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NBEV – I actually bought NBEV yesterday when I saw it as a double bottom & found myself stopped out of JNUG. I can put my stop under these lows and it is not due to report earnings until next month.
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SNAP – I AM POSTING THIS FOR A REASON!! IT LOOKED VERY GOOD HEADING INTO EARNINGS LAST NIGHT. A BACK TEST, A BULL FLAG, ETC. EARNINGS CAME OUT & IT DROPPED $2 IN AFTER HRS TO $17, NOW WE HAVE TO SEE IF IT CAN BOUNCE OFF OF THE 34 or 50 SMA, SO PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE EARNINGS RELEASE DATES ON THE ONES THAT YOU BUY OR TRADE.
