Thursday January 23rd
SPX – So we are in the area that a daily cycle top can form. We saw one on day 32 in September as shown, but we also saw the last one peak on day 39 in November . We are on day 33. The SPX may need a trigger point like the Fed Mtg to top it. That Fed Day would be a day 38 peak and again, that is possible since we had a day 39 peak last time.
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SPX – As a reminder, if the markets are not just going to do a blow off top, melt up type of parabolic run, we are also coming due for an ICL. I would expect a dcl soon, and then the next daily cycle would have to peak early & rolls over (Unless we go parabolic into March like 2000).
NASDAQ PARABOLIC TOP in 2000 – I showed that possibility here, so we want to be aware of the idea that it is ok to be long the markets, but use stops.
WTIC – I kind of expected this after seeing the XOP, XLE, and Energy stocks break down yesterday. Oil did not hold up after that Oil Inventory report. So…
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WTIC – We have all seen OIL accelerate when it sells off, often several days down in a row. If we get that here, it may resemble this. I’m just going to let it play out into a dcl and go from there.
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XOP – And of course those Oil / Energy stocks broke down Tuesday below the 50 sma & had follow through Wednesday. I now anticipate something like this as a very solid possibility. It seems to double bottom a lot & you can go long when you see that divergence.
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CONCLUSION: So OIL has been trade-able, but not ‘invest-able’. You can catch some of these stocks at the lows and ride them for some good gains, but at this point, most of them just give those gains back eventually. A true case of BUY LOW, but son’t forget to SELL HIGH.
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GOLD – GOLD has been chopping sideways and I discussed that this could happen too. Now I’ve noticed that the 20 sma can support Gold when it got choppy in the past, but this is a really just a bit of a guess, since it also chopped the 20sma in the other consolidations. $1548ish is that 20sma.
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SILVER – I expected a drop to the 50 sma for Silver, but it appears that the lows are in place for GOLD & The Miners, so Silver has probably bottomed on day 32. Read the chart. I doubled checked a few other things and found…
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SILVER – I doubled checked a few other things and found that Silver hit the 50% retrace line & the 34 sma, another moving average that often interacts with price. So this really could be a dcl on day 32 that matches Technical Analysis.
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EDIT : I do see a slight new low this morning for Silver.
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GDX #1 – It is very possible that the miners will make progress with a run like this soon. This is GDX #1, and we would love to see this, rather than the next chart which is GDX #2 🙂
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GDX #2– THIS WILL FRUSTRATE US , but it can happen. This would be a sideways choppy daily cycle that still becomes R.T. and eventually puts in a higher dcl. Since neither you nor I can force GDX #1 to happen, let’s just hope that we see some immediate upside sooner than later. GDX #3 would be ok too…
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GDX #3 – A POP & then a DROP into the F.O.M.C. mtg next week is also possible. Then we could see the General Markets top and drop to a dcl as GDX then launches into the next run.
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So you can see that we are nearing turning points, but at times that just becomes choppiness. The OIL & ENERGY Sector is no longer vague, it has broken down. The General Markets & Precious Metals could continue higher at any time. They may be waiting for a trigger, like the FOMC Mtg, so we’ll just trade with the bigger picture in mind.
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Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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MJ ETF – This sector is acting correctly, this looks like a Bull Flag after a quick move from $16 to $19.50.
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CRON – I posted this chart to show how CRON landed on what should be support, as it looks to be preparing for another leg higher soon. Many look like this, so the sector remains bullishly set up near the lows.
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APHA – And APHA seems to have put in a 3+ Month base that it is possibly breaking out from. This base looks like an inverse H&S too.
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TKRFF – I put these 2 charts into the weekend report.
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This is a nice base that back tested the 10 week ma.
TKRFF – It is now breaking above the 200sma and moved up 20% . I don’t own it, but I’m starting to wish that I had bought it just because of the base in the above chart.
