Wednesday Dec 18th – Waiting
SPX – The SPX is on day 10 and that is a new peak for this daily cycle. It has been a strong run out of the dcl, so if it is going to roll over as L.T., it will need to do so soon ( likely by day 15).
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VIX – It looks as though the Vix could drop a little more and then bounce, so we’ll see if this indicates that the markets are close to a top ( or at least a temporary top).
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WTIC – Oil is at the top of that channel, but it CAN just keep climbing along the top and even become more vertical if price surges higher. That can happen after a long choppy consolidation. That said : Today is the Oil Inventory report – so we can see if that begins a pull back or pushes it higher. IF OIL starts to pull back, you should see a buy opportunity in many of the Oil / Energy stocks. I will discuss that briefly at the end of the report( & Future daily reports).
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USD – The dollar has pretty much been in free-fall, but unfortunately GOLD has been going sideways and did not break out above the 50 sma with this opportunity. IF THE USD BOUNCES – WILL GOLD DIP TO A DCL? It is a possibility.
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GOLD – Gold actually looks really good to me. It has been crawling along under that 50 sma, and that usually builds strength to break through. I like the MACD, but it is now day 25 ( today) and if the USD bounces, Gold could dip to a dcl. If so, I would expect that dip to be mild. Also…
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Since I am now seeing a small triangle form in Gold – I have mentioned in the past that I personally have found that Triangles hinder cycle counts. This still could break out higher for 2 or 3 days and then ‘Back Test’ the 50 sma as a higher form of a dcl without a trend line break.
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SILVER – Silver actually put in a low 6 days ago. It is near the 50 sma too.
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GDX – GDX is already above the 50 sma. We are just patiently waiting for a nice upside rally, but as is often seen in this sector- it is testing the patience of all of the Bulls and Bears. GDX has basically gone sideways for months now.
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ELYGF – I posted the chart of ELYGF yesterday and it continues to climb the right side of a cup ( or saucer ) formation. Volume has increased to roughly 200,000 on the climb, while it was often 50,000 during the consolidation.
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EQX – I posted this in the live area yesterday and this is a very nice consolidation. It is a buy in my opinion. They are buying ( or merging) with another Gold company and have a goal of producing 1 million oz / year. I am thinking that this could become a ‘Buy out’ candidate down the road too.
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We are watching the General Markets for signs of a continuation higher in ‘melt up’ mode, or a peak forming before day 15 and a dip into an eventual ICL ( We are due). Oil has been moving steadily higher over the past 2 weeks, and Oil inventory is today, which may start a dip where oil stocks become attractive. Gold, Silver, and Miners continued churning sideways near the 50 sma. We are watching for a POP or DROP. I expect any drop to be shorter & Brief, or a POP could begin the trending move higher.
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Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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DNR – We discussed how the Oil stocks have been running out of their bases. These moves are often steady & do not allow Bulls to jump in. A pull back would offer a buy opportunity. I will discuss that if & when it happens, but…
I DID point out a few stocks in this sector that are not extended yet and worthy of buying. Yesterday I wrote about WLL, OAS, and others this way …
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WLL – WLL is also climbing up the 8 ema, and stalled at the 50 sma, so this would be a good entry too. I know they show up as overbought on the stochastics, but this can continue. This can still run like we see with DNR & WTI charts above.
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WLL -And you can see that WLL closed up over 11% yesterday and yet still looks like it is just getting moving. It remains a buy, and if the Oil inventory report dips oil lower, this may dip down too.
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WRN & TGB – I also pointed out WRN & TGB as being lagging Copper stocks that look set up to run. As shown here, both Broke out higher Monday, and on Tuesday…
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WRN PAUSED and so did TGB, so these are the opportunities that you can look for to go long on down days. Again…
Again, Oil may be at a point that it will start to pull back with Oil inventory, and if it does, some of the Oil stocks can pull back to a lower risk entry. I would cover that in future reports when it happens.
