December 26th – As Expected
.
Well, a holiday shortened week can be a light volume non-event, but it sure wasn’t this week! We have been anticipating a likely Bullish Break out in the Precious Metals sector, and that is exactly what we got. Even the volume on Tuesdays 1/2 day of trading was heavy, so while we discuss progress of a few of the other sectors, we are going to focus on Miners a bit more in this report. ARE YOU RESTED & READY FOR ACTION? THIS SHORTENED HOLIDAY WEEK MAY NOT BE TAKING A REST 🙂
SPX – After a dcl, the long trade here has been to hold as long as it continues to ride the 10sma. I recommended putting a stop in under the 13 sma on the last run & this one and we are able to stay in the trade for weeks . Thursday day 16, and a new high would push this toward becoming right translated and remaining bullish.
.
WTIC – Oil has been running along the top of this channel, and many Oil / Energy stocks have been running out of the lows too. I had posted some buy opportunities and more will present themselves if we get a pull back in Oil. Oil eventually dipping to the 200sma & bottom of this channel would be great.
.
GOLD – I have been comparing the last consolidation with the current one, and as time moved forward, they almost became identical. Many were afraid to buy due to the C.O.T., but I wrote about that during that last consolidation and that did not concern me very much.
1. These triangle consolidation break outs can be very powerful, so even if we stall as a cup & handle forms, I expect this to run even higher.
2. Look at the chart and the run out of May lows. Note where we would be if this was that May/June break out. This can run for weeks & months.
3. I warned in June that Waiting for a pull back to enter was not the best idea. You can see why. I’ll discuss this a bit further at GDX too.
.
SILVER – This is a Bullish break of a 4 month consolidation. It can run straight up or it can stair-step higher, but Silver Miners are way ahead of this move & should continue to make great again. Laggers can play catch up so I bought AXU & FSM weeks ago and used charts to show why.
.
GDX #1 – This was the early Buy signal that I got & pointed out recently (They are very rare). It actually triggered near the November dcl in Gold.
.
THIS WAS IN MY FRIDAY REPORT, PRIOR TO THE RECENT BREAK OUT: We discussed that a dcl in November could be an ICL, similar to the one in May ( blue arrows).
The sideways action makes it tricky since a quick dip to a dcl could have taken place, but that would make a higher low. I mentioned that I was now heavily invested, since GDX got above again the 50 sma . Triangle formations often break upside. The sector could just break higher like we saw in May, and it could run higher and leave people behind. I used this chart and discussed the similarities of the MAY Low and the sideways chop with the current set up.
.
GDX Currently- That is exactly what we have here. It broke out very similar to that MAY ICL, and many were left behind waiting for a dip to buy back then. Look at that June run and you’ll see why I warned back then not to wait for a dip. That break away gap would not fill. Let me explain this a it further…
.
GDX – We could be where the purple arrow shows on this chart. CAN THIS DIP & BACK TEST THE TRIANGLE? Yes, but I wouldn’t just wait for that if I was under invested. I would either just jump in and accept that it may pull back, recognizing that the lows should be in place ( ICL), or buy a good position and then buy / add on the dip IF we get one. 
.
You need to at least be in it at this point, but I know that most if not all of my readers have entered positions since that November low was called a buy. I have posted many individual Miners as Bullish set ups along the way, especially those Silver stocks. Most here are already very much invested from the lows in November and Silver stock lows in October. If you feel under invested? Buy a few more Miners at low risk entry points, and maybe save some cash to add on a dip if we get one.
.
GDX chart From Dec 13th – Here I just want to point out that Big Picture potential again. The Big Picture was to remind my readers that the future move could make the last run look rather small. Even that 2016 run looks smallish when we look at the potential over time. This CAN stair-step higher, but at times it may just ramp up higher in a straight line manner.
.
Why do I say that it is important to be invested in the Precious Metals now? Many were looking at the COT and thought that ‘Smart Money Shorts’ meant that we’d get a strong pull back in gold before a run higher. THIS may have encouraged ‘shorting Miners’ as Gold reached the 50 sma. As this runs, they have to cover their shorts and we get a very strong short covering rally along with Buyers jumping in trying not to miss out. This is what I said I thought would happen last June with that break away gap, and we may see that now. So below I will cover several trade ideas in various sectors, but I am very heavily invested in Miners at this point, so I’ll focus there a little more today. I’ll try to mix it up a bit more later ( Energy, Tech, etc). We thought that maybe this would be a low volume week of holiday trading, but the markets are full of surprises! And Bull Markets often surprise to the upside ( right Ed? ) 🙂
.
Enjoy your Thursday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
AKG – I called AKG a buy at the 200sma with this chart. Well…
.
It then bounced and double bottomed, so this was a place to buy ( or add), and since then?
.
Since AKG got choppy & is lagging a bit, I wanted to point it out again before it breaks a down trend. It did Double quickly in the June to August run.
,
I will discuss a few Miners below, but first…
.
OAS – I pointed out Oil / Energy stocks like OAS, WTI, WLL, LPI, DNR, BE, etc. If Oil pulls back, a buying opportunity or a place to ‘add’ to current positions may present itself as shown here with OAS. I WOULDN’T SELL Current positions, because they are running like Miners did in June too.
.
TUSK #1 – One of our readers that used to be in the live trading / comments area ( Thanks RAY) Pointed out TUSK to me a week or so ago. I like the way it is setting up and it has now closed over the 50 sma twice. This is Bullish. What do I like most about the TUSK Chart?…
.
TUSK #2– This traded up near $20 in 2019 and dropped to $1 when the OIL / ENERGY sector took a beat down recently. This is a long base and this has great potential over time.
As a reminder, some of those Energy Stocks to keep an eye on on my watch list would be OAS, WTI, WLL, LPI, DNR, APY, VAL, MRO, REI, NOG, AXAS, SDRL, RES, TUSK etc. I will discuss them further if I notice that they pull back and set up as low risk entries again. Some are not bad now, like TUSK.
.
I HAVE ALSO TRADED SOLAR STOCKS, WITH IDEAS LIKE : ENPH, VSLR, JKS, CSIQ, ETC –
ENPH & VSLR trades are still working, and I think that VSLR is setting up as another buy opportunity. CSIQ & JKS are running VERY STRONGLY.
ENPH may do the same as it just climbs that 8 ema.
.
UBER – I heard that the UBER CEO stepped down so I looked at the chart. It is now looking Bullish to me, with higher lows, a Bullish MACD & RSI, etc. It could be bought here at the 50 sma as a low risk entry with a stop.
.
ZIOP – I have followed ZIOP, GH, TWTST, and other Pharma stocks. I’m sure that you remember strong moves made by CRSP, EDIT, NVAX, SGMO and many others.
ZIOP is forming a triangle consolidation, similar to a Bull Flag. It can be bought with a stop, or buy the break out if we see one.
.
** YOU HAVE SEEN THIS SECTION BELOW BEFORE. TO SAVE YOU TIME, I AM SIMPLY GOING TO COPY THE LAST PART OF MONDAY NIGHTS REPORT HERE. SOME BROKE HIGHER- BUT THIS GIVES YOU SOME MINERS TO BUY OR WATCH.
I THOUGHT THAT THIS MAY BE WORTH REVIEWING IN CASE WE PULL BACK THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. YOU CAN EVEN JUST QUICKLY SCROLL THROUGH IT AND LOOK FOR CHARTS THAT INTEREST YOU.
.
SVM #1 – We were re-entering SVM as a cup formed and earnings were released. Were the lows in place?
.
SVM NOW – The lows were in place and the Buying continued. This was a great run, unfolding much like the run out of the May lows. There were others too.
.
HL – HL was a buy as it broke the 200sma, but many of us bought it above the 50 sma as it crawled along that area. This has been a great run too.
.
HL – This chart highlights the potential in Hecla if we have re-entered a Bull Market in Precious Metals.
.
PAAS – Paas was a buy as a back test of the break out. Since it was continuing higher, I used this chart to show where GDX could have been back when it broke out & back tested in November. Did PAAS continue higher? …
.
PAAS – Very much so. It formed a cup, and became a buy again as a cup & handle. And since GDX looks similar to where PAAS was back in November, we can hope for this kind of move in GDX & GDXJ too. 🙂
.
SINCE OUR SILVER STOCKS RAN HIGHER, I WENT TO THE LAGGERS, SEARCHING FOR THOSE THAT MAY PLAY CATCH UP.
.
FSM DEC 2 – I posted this as a Buy for the Chartfreaks as it broke that 200sma.
.
FSM – And it is moving higher and will likely form a cup soon. It is still a buy. I expect it to continue much higher over time, as explained in previous reports.
.
AXU – This was also recommended as buying a ‘Laggard’ weeks ago, but I think that this is also still a buy now and can continue higher.
,
AXU – You could add on a break out or just add now and know that it COULD dip to the lower magenta line to test that 50sma, but I think that it wants to break higher and form a larger cup. I also discussed …
.
AXU BIG PICTURE – The potential in AXU is excellent after it breaks from the long multi-year base. AXU HAS HUGE POTENTIAL OVER TIME.
.
WHAT ABOUT NOW? Well, AXU & FSM can still be bought, but let’s look at a few more.
.
USAS – USAS is just breaking out from a downtrend, so it can be bought here. I also wanted to point out the big Move that came from that long Yellow base. I’m pointing that out because I am seeing one in ‘AG’ too. Let’s take a look…
.
AG – First Majestic has not ramped up like other Silver stocks, but when it leaves this consolidation, it should have the energy to really run.
.
AG – I posted this big picture chart of AG in November to show the potential here too. A run to $18 or $20+ will be very rewarding.
.
BTG – BTG Popped Monday and is above the 50 & 100 sma . I used the 100 sma because BTG seemed to bounce off of it a few times in the recent climb higher.
.
IAG – IAG did a bit of a shake out last week, closing under the 200sma, but quickly reversing higher & regaining it on Monday.
.
AUY – I posted these 2 charts at the end of November too. It could be bought in the box or when it breaks out.
.
It has been climbing higher recently too, and could break out & run at any time.
.
