Dec 12th
SPX DAY 6 – This was a buy, and you use the 10 sma ( or 13 sma for a loose fit) as a stop. So far, I am thinking this run may not last very long. Yesterday I compared this with the July double top. For this to top as L.T., it would probably top around day 16 or less, but it could be much less, so use a trailing stop.
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SOXL for 3X Semi – When I look at the SOX, it also popped off of the 10sma, so you’d still be in this trade if you went long. The Semiconductors looked rather strong, so I looked at 2 things.
1. Notice the July Double top in SPX, and we see that the SOX was stronger then too, but it still rolled over into a steep drop, so a stop at the 10 sma would have saved you.
2. I also looked at the next chart
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IS THAT BULLISH? – This looks like a bullish set up, with a double bottom and a rising MACD & RSI, right? This looks like it wants to go higher soon. This is the inverse SPX etf ( Short SPX), so just Stay frosty if you are long the General Markets.
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THE POST FED PRECIOUS METALS – It looks more and more like my ‘Gut Feel’ for the Precious Metals Sector in yesterdays report was correct. Even Post Fed without a rate cut,the sector improved. We’ll take a look at the charts and get a post-Fed read out…
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GOLD – Intraday I pointed out the 50 sma and mentioned that a close above the $1480.64 prior high would be Bullish. A NEW HIGH on day 21 of this daily cycle would not be normal for a final daily cycle that was about to drop into an ICL. That would likely indicate that the lows of Nov were the ICL.
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THIS WAS IN YESTERDAYS REPORT FOR GOLD –
1. This is a trend line break out & back test so far.
2. Price was rejected at the 50 sma, but could pop & try to get through it again. Why?
3. THIS MACD is actually bullishly aligned as it drops (so far).
4. That November low COULD STILL BE the ICL, but price is still close to the lows ( like May 2019).
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Click these charts to enlarge
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GOLD – Gold turned higher at that trend line back test, but it did not get above the 50sma yet. This looks a LOT like the choppy ICL (lows) that we got in May 2019. Notice the comparison & look at the run that followed.
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GOLD – This is day 21 and since the 50 sma rejected price, we could still chop around for a while.
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GOLD – So even if the lows are in place, you might see something like this. A choppy daily cycle that puts in a dcl quietly and then runs higher. May 2019 did this, but the lows were still in place.
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GOLD – Or we could break those day 15 Highs, break the 50 sma, rally for a while, and then drop into a higher dcl.
I just want to add that even if Gold did chop around and break to a new low, the Miners are just ignoring any threat of a serious drop. They are leading this sector higher and technically they are a buy.
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SILVER – I’d love to see this break out and run in a Post-Fed rally.
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GDX Intraday – As a reminder, I posted this in the live area to show that a higher high would be very bullish. A break of this high on day 21 indicates that we are going higher and Lows are in place. Did $27.94 break by the close??
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GDX – No 🙁 , but you can see that this looks ready to do what so many Miners already have done. GDX looks ready to Form a cup like I have drawn here. I’ll discuss that a bit later in this report…
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GDXJ – So we are seeing higher lows and attempting higher highs. THAT is what starts an uptrend out of a base. This has been very choppy and difficult, but it is starting to look more like it will run higher. What about that part where they often form cups?…
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I remember drawing this in November & recommending SSRM as a Miner preparing to break out and possibly form a cup…
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SSRM – You can see that SSRM formed that cup and is chopping out a handle. Notice that the right side of the Cup was almost straight up, so we want to be positioned in the BASE area as it breaks higher.
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SVM #1 – SVM formed a cup as pointed out here on Nov 12. Again notice how quickly the right side can form on a break out. And since GDX may form a cup, what comes after this cup forms?
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SVM #2 – A cup can form a small choppy handle and then take off again. If GDX / GDXJ or another Miner does this, you want to Buy while it is still near the base. You can also buy the handle later. We are in the base right now.
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AXU – In early December I bought & recommended AXU near the 50 sma after forming a bullish descending wedge. I mentioned that this could start forming a cup too.
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AXU – AXU dropped to the 10 sma and flipped higher on Fed Wednesday, closing up 9%. I still think this is going to form a cup. Do you remember why I like AXU so much?
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AXU – I pointed this out on November 25 when AXU was about 50 cents lower. This has great potential in the long term in a Bull Market.
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FSM – I recommended FSM as it broke the 50 & 200sma.
Do you know what I think this is going to do? 🙂 …
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FSM – Yes, I think it’ll form a cup. After a normal back test of that 50 sma break out, FSM reversed higher and had increasing volume on Fed Wednesday. These are Bullish set ups.
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HMY – And HMY is another one that has been consolidating for months and popped with volume after the FED MTG. HMY recovered the 50 sma, so you can buy it with a tight stop at the 50sma, or just buy it and stay in even if it continues to chop.
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A Reminder that was also in yesterdays report & The Weekend Report
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AS MENTIONED IN THE WEEKEND REPORT– I actually got a rare BUY SIGNAL in GDX on the last day of November. This set up RARELY gives me a false reading. It means that the lows should be in place, even if it gets choppy & Sloppy, so I look forward to seeing if the lows hold up with our Fed Mtg this week.
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I concluded yesterdays Pre-Fed Report by saying this… My Gut now feels that we have The November lows as the lows for Gold, and The Miners would hold as THE LOWS. A rally that follows would indicate that the ICL is in place and we would ride a rally for weeks and Months, just like the last one.
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Conclusion: I got a rare Buy signal at Novembers lows. Many Miners have acted bullishly on their own. Now we have seen that the FOMC Mtg wasn’t a bearish event for the Precious Metals. Many Miners actually moved higher and are close to taking out the highs of this daily cycle. That would probably make it a R.T. daily cycle. With all of the reasons in yesterdays report giving me a Gut Feel that this was a Bullish Set Up- I added heavily yesterday with the idea that we are near the lows and can use a stop if necessary. This does look like the lows are in place, even though it has been choppy. I will post a few more ideas below.
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Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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USD – Look at the final bounce in the USD on this chart. For the first time in over 1 & a 1/2 years, it could not reach the upper blue line. It broke down Thursday after the Fed Meeting below the lows too. Now look at the RSI on the final 2 months of this chart. It was unable to reach that 70% line. The USD looks to be weakening.
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NG – Nova Gold seems to have put in recent lows in early November too. It has been choppy, but without the likelihood of an ICL sell off ahead, these lows should hold and price should run higher sooner or later. So this is still a lower risk Buy.
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USAS – I posted this last week and bought it…
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USAS – It is still in this area ( $2.95 now), so it is still a low risk buy. Wait for a break out or grab it in this area, and…
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USAS – Long term charts show that the next run could be as good as the first one.
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IAG – I have shown this before, but I wanted to step back and show this view of IAG. This is a tightening wedge bouncing right along that 200sma. It is a low risk buy too.
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AU WEEKLY – This is actually a giant cup forming a handle now . AU has run from $7 to $25 and looks like it wants to run to $50. The set ups have been in long choppy consolidations, but these are very Bullish long term looking charts.
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BARRICK GOLD WEEKLY (See NEM too) – Again, with all of the consolidation taking place, our short term charts are toppy and can be frustrating, but these long term charts look very Bullish for some good trending moves that follow each ICL.
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MU – If you like the General Markets , MU broke out yesterday, so you can try an entry on MU. That was a small abandoned baby at the recent dcl.
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SID – We’ve discussed METALS as being bullish now too : CLF, CENX, HBM, AKS, X, FCX, GGB, TMST, etc etc. SID is acting bullishly, riding along the 9 sma & breaking form a sell off. It seems like you can ride it along that 9 sma.
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TGB – I bought TGB as it tries to break from this wedge. This was captured at the open. It did not break out yet, but it closed with very big volume. I expect it to break out.
