Tuesday 11-19-2019
Reminder from Fridays report : The SPX has been running strong, I have recommended a stop under the 10sma since it is getting late in the daily cycle. Peak on day 28 makes this Right Translated.
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SPX – We now have a peak on day 30. Long & Strong has been the General Markets song.
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FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT : WTIC WEEKLY – Oil has been choppy all year after emerging from an ICL low. I have pointed out how we actually have seen that in the past, This choppiness CAN continue sideways, or it could break from the triangle, but we are getting later in the intermediate cycle and a strong run higher becomes less likely over time. We will keep an eye on it. Please read the chart.
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WTIC – Oil lost the 200sma after gaining it Friday. Do you know why? Because…
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Because Oil is just plain old choppy for now. It will be coming due for an ICL too, so this chop may just continue and eventually dip into that ICL like we saw in 2017.
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XOP – The XOP is heading back to the lows and the XLE dropped to the 50 sma & bounced off of it for now. I am not trading this sector right now.
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LAST WEEK USD DAILY – I discussed that the USD started to drop & lost the 50sma Friday. This could be good news for the Precious Metals sector, since it was overbought and can sell off for a while.
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USD – And the drop for the USD continued Monday. This did seem to help Precious Metals.
From The weekend report GOLD WEEKLY – We have a weekly reversal candle, which is a buy as a dcl (with a stop). This looks like a Bull Flag, but originally I expected a possible drop to back test this break out ( Yellow area).
So we were looking for follow through to continue to push price higher this week ( Hopefully).
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GOLD – Gold was down $10 in Pre-market, so I captured this chart before the bell to show were the lows were ( $1446 ish), in case they were taken out with a deep sell off while I was away in the morning. Well, I’m happy to report that…
Gold was down $10 Monday morning, and then we got a swift reversal at the 8:30 am Eastern time. Because this all happened pre-market, no one got stopped out & had to deal with that before a reversal higher. Lets look at this reversal…
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GOLD 30 minute – This is a 30 minute chart of Gold for the entire day. All of Mondays trading is made up of that ramp higher on the right of the chart, and the drift sideways, so
1. It dropped initially and then put in the reversal and ran higher, and
2. Then gold ran sideways and may have formed A BULL FLAG ON THE 30 MINUTE GOLD CHART.
3. Now let me show you how my Mind sees that this could become a bullish chart. Hint: Formed a base? …
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GOLD 30 minute – This is how my mind sees the potential in that chart . If this is a base and it is ready to continue the launch higher ( We should know by Tuesday), We may have just seen a bigger 1-2 of a 1-2-3-4-5 out of the DCL. The ‘2’ would be Mondays pre-market drop & reversal. Now we head higher as the USD drops? We should know this week .
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Gold Daily – The daily chart is a lot more simple than all of that.
1. Here we have Gold bottomed on day 30 so far.
2. It rallied a little bit and was rejected at the 10sma Friday, day 3.
3. Gold then fell with the Sunday night open & Monday morning trading, but quickly reversed & pushed higher to close over the 10sma. That is a good start to this being a dcl confirmation on day 4.
4. I would love to see it get above that 50sma and NOT roll over as L.T. & a final Daily Cycle.
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SILVER -Silver is actually just riding along the 120 sma. It is still under the 10sma. I use that 120 sma at times if it fits a long term run, and usually when a drop does not reach the 200 sma . I use this because I also use the 10, 20, 30, 60, 120.
Sidenote: I also have been known to use the 9 sma, 13 sma, 34 sma, 60 sma, etc. And some various EMA, like 8 ema, 20 ema, etc It is situational depending on the run.
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GDX – GDX & GDXJ look good, moving above the 10sma. Many individual Miners look more bullish than the metals too, as mentioned in past reports. I will point out a few below again, but so far GDX still looks like a break out from a triangle & a back test. Now it has moved above the 10sma. THAT IS PROGRESS and this now looks like a DCL. A push above the 50sma adds to this being a nice bullish chart & maybe not a L.T. one. Other Miners are way ahead of GDX & GDXJ in that area and look quite bullish.
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So I said that Other Miners are way ahead of GDX & GDXJ in that 50 sma area and look quite bullish. I will show that below, and that should be an indication that the sector wants to move higher. Below you will see several more Miners that are acting Bullishly.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BTG – Here is a GOLD stock that has already done what I have said we want to see GDX & GDXJ do. It is consolidating gains in a multi-week (even multi-month) base-like consolidation. I want you to notice how BTG moved out of that low with the green arrow on the right. Like our current GDX set up it moved higher, dipped down, and then pushed higher again. We want to see GDX gain that 50sma like BTG has, and notice that it may be a bit choppy in the day to day process.
The above BTG chart is a bullish set up and many others like IAG, AUY, etc are at this point. THAT is encouraging for hoped for progress playing out in GDX & GDXJ. Let’s take a look at a few more Miners…
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Barrick Gold – Barrick broke above the upper trend line of an apparent wedge today. If Barrick can start pushing higher, that is good for the GDX progress. This was a Midday chart…
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I’ll give you a close up after the close. Volume increased, watch the 50 sma.
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HMY – I rode HMY up on the first run and the gains were great. I sold it and wanted to get back in , possibly on a gap fill when it gapped above the 50sma 5 days ago, but at this point that may not happen. HMY looks good here too. It may be worth buying 1/2 position and add on as I see fit.
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CDE – The Silver stocks are very bullish and many are simply way ahead of the GDX / GDXJ progress. CDE is riding the 10sma now and added another 5% Monday to get to new highs again. Look at the volume.
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WPM – I bought WPM last week when they released earnings. It is riding the 120 sma as a consolidation level. Monday it got above the 50sma & the MACD crossed. The RSI is above 50% and I like this for the next run. The Earnings report was good last week. This is still a buy, use a stop.
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FSM – FSM released earnings and it broke down Friday and then reversed higher. THAT looks like a shake out to me. It can be bought right here or on a bullish break of the 50sma, but it is a Silver stock may now be ready to make up for lost time. This could easily run from $3 to $4.60 in short time period, like many others have ( SVM, PAAS, etc) . That is a good % trade.
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PAAS FROM NOV 14 – I’ve been pointing out the Cup that could form in PAAS & SVM for a while…
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PAAS – The cup has formed. This is what I mean when I say that FSM could run quickly higher out of the recent ase/consolidation. PAAS went straight up for 2 weeks.
EXK – Last week I felt the same way about EXK, which took over the 50 sma. A cup forming here would be good gains and a low risk entry…
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EXK – And it is not too late, it is still there at the 50 sma. A run to the former highs is 35%, and it can keep going too, if we have an ICL in the Metals.
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EXK – And of course I showed this too for EXK Potential. So the MINERS are acting bullishly on an individual bases, and that seems to bode well for GDX & GDXJ.
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Not a Miner, but I like this set up:
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SNAP – As a side trade, SNAP is pinched between the 50 & 200 sma, and when these break higher, they can run well. Look at the run in all of 2019. That is $5 to $18, now dancing along the 200 sma. The next run could be a good one too.
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Just an rare “Oh Wow!” Move:
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KRTX – We don’t get to see a stock do this often, so I just wanted to show you what happens when your clinical trials go well. WOW! The news was ” Karuna Therapeutics’ stock more than triples after upbeat trial results of schizophrenia treatment” .
This gapped open from $17 to $32.50. I would obviously never buy a stock gapping open 100%, but then it just kept running beyond belief all day up to $100!.
