November 23rd Weekend Report
I have plans for Saturday evening, so in order to get this report out today, I am releasing it without a thorough proof read, so please excuse any typos that may be included . Thanks ! 🙂
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After a week of trading, not a whole lot has changed on the big picture charts, so I will just quickly cover each sector, keeping it short where possible.
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SPX WEEKLY – We are expecting a dip into a dcl, and we have a Doji, which is a possible topping candle of indecision.
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NASDAQ – A Doji Candle in the Nasdaq too. I would be expecting a pull back soon.
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WTIC – Oil has been choppy and sideways, but it did close at the top of the weekly trading. Constant choppy sideways action is unpredictable, so this chart does NOT have to top where I drew a possible turn, this is just an idea that keeps in mind that an ICL will come due at any time.
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XLE – Oil & Energy stocks are still choppy, but if they start trending higher, they could make some good gains. I’m keeping an eye on them…
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XOP – The XOP reversed at the lows (Again). It does look like a possible break out and back test, we’ll know if the bounce can take out the highs from the last bounce.
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USD WEEKLY– The USD has moved sideways for 3 weeks. A run higher in this channel MIGHT push Gold lower, and the daily chart does look like it wants to go higher. Let’s look at the daily chart.
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USD DAILY– The daily chart has the USD looking like it wants to go higher, and this could push the Precious metals lower.
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COT – Smart money increased their short positions again.
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GOLD – We did not get a burst higher to confirm that we have an ICL, but we do have a dcl that may be the ICL. Gold has gone sideways for 2 weeks as the USD went sideways for 2 weeks. We have a dcl, and if it is not an ICL, it should drop to new lows of this consolidation over time. Notice that the last 2 ICLs were actually sideways & choppy for weeks. That could happen again.
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SILVER – We have the battle of the Bulls and Bears here too. It also has had choppy sideways action at the last 2 ICL areas. It can do a bear flag sideways and a final slam down, or eventually push higher. Look at the last candle from last week and you see that it gave us no further evidence.
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GDX – GDX looks like a weekly topping candle at the 10 week ma, and remember that the USD look like it can run a bit higher. That doesn’t mean a big sell off has to come next, but it could not hold the highs after bouncing up to the 10 week ma.. (50 sma on a Daily chart). Since this came at the upper trend line, I expect some selling next week.
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GDX – I can picture an ICL in this area if the selling picks up a bit. Please read the chart.
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GDX DAILY – The daily chart does still see this possibility with Fridays small reversal candle. That would negate the weekly topping candle, but so far the Weekly Big Pic chart looks like a pull back is coming, and the 50 sma is acting as a ceiling.
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NOTE: Shooting Stars can be a temporary topping candle, it signals price unable to hold the highs. I started seeing shooting starts on the weekly charts of individual Miners, so let’s take a look…
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CDE – CDE has had a nice run, but couldn’t hold those highs last week. This is a shooting star on a weekly candle and could pull back a bit as the USD moves higher.
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SBGL– Shooting start on a weekly candle.
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SVM – Shooting star on SVM. It MIGHT just go sideways as shown, or simply drop to the blue line 10 sma.
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So I did sell my Miners with those weekly tops and posted it in the live area. I will buy them back at some point. I also understand that THE PULL BACK MAY BE MILD, but I had more positions open than I want to with recent trading in MJ, Tech, etc. This was not a mandatory sell, it was just me cutting back on a few positions and Miners had run higher and seem like they could dip a bit. It could be mild and therefore I want to show you something important…
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CDE BIG PICTURE – This is what I think of CDE, SBGL, and SVM in the Big Picture. I think in the long run, you want to be in these, so short term trading isn’t really necessary. CDE is really just getting started here, and…
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SBGL – We have seen SBGL run away , but look at the Big Picture. It is also just steadily climbing back to 2016 highs. This is a beautiful cup forming. So you do NOT have to sell as long term traders. You can sell some? Sell a partial? Or sell & buy it back, since the dips can be difficult. It is mentally tough for some when you see your account go from $20,000 to $16,000 on a 2 week dip, or $50,000 to $40,000 in a 20% 2 week ICL dip, but long term I love the charts.
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So as you can see, not much changed with this weeks action. We do have some weekly reversal Candles showing up with the Miners, but it is not overly alarming. The USD can run higher and Miners can pull back. Most sectors have been chopping up & down / sideways anyway so we may just see more of the same. We’ll see if next week begins to clarify if each sector will choose a direction. I have expected a dip in the General Markets soon too.
Again, when it comes to the Miners, this does not mean that we will see a large dip. Remember the lows at 2016 were very choppy with a lot of up & down action. We’ll see what next week brings. NEXT WEEK IS A SHORT WEEK OF TRADING IN THE US, WITH MARKETS CLOSED THURSDAY and 1/2 DAY TRADING FRIDAY .
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Enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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I WANT TO SHARE WITH YOU ALL SOMETHING THAT I AM LOOKING AT THAT COULD BE IMPORTANT GOING FORWARD. I DO THINK THAT YOU WILL FIND THIS INTERESTING.
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CDE AT THE MAY ICL – Look at this candle on the weekly chart from the time when the Miners put in their ICL. So we will call this
1. A HIGH VOLUME SURGE out of the MAY ICL (Deep sell off lows).
2. Notice that it tagged the 10 week ma, and dropped into the close of that week.
3. What – Happened- Next?
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CDE RUN – It ran for weeks higher. A solid V-Bottom actually. We all remember how the rally unfolded after that May ICL. You could have even bought it after it got above the 10 week ma, and still made great money. So…
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CDE ICL AGAIN – Stare at this chart for a few seconds and then go to the next one.
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ACRGF – TWINS? Yes, I am seeing this blast out of the MJ Sell off as being quite similar to the blast out of the Gold ICL. Scroll up & down and compare the 2 charts again.
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CDE RUN – And then again, this is what happened when CDE broke out like that. It ran higher for 9 out of 10 weeks! I am NOT guaranteeing that same thing out of ACRGF, but I think you now see what I am looking at, and…
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We are looking at a BULLISH INVERTED HAMMER PATTERN AT THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS CHART
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SO again, it certainly looks like CDE & ACRGF Weekly charts had that BULLISH INVERTED HAMMER PATTERN.
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MJ WEEKLY – The MJ Sector often rallies at the year end & into January too. Is that about to repeat? I am looking for clues now.
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CGC WEEKLY – CGC ran from $13.80 to $21.56 last week alone, and tagged that 10 week ma and then sold off. Volume ramped up immensely. Look at the last 2 rallies when Sell offs turned into high volume reversals. I basically see $25 to $50+ each time.
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ACRGF – I’m back at ACRGF to show that it has been deeply oversold for many weeks. What if it runs until it is overbought? Seems like gains will be big.
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HEXO WEEKLY – Hexo did the same thing as CDE too, and these are not the only ones, so this may be hinting that the entire sector has bottomed, and it has put in its own ICL.
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HEXO WEEKLY – Often these rocket higher, but I also want to mention the possibility of a small base building into December that can be choppy & frustrating . That just means that some traders might just want to wait until the weekly price gets over that 10 week ma ( 50 sma daily chart). See the chart. I will now show you why we could see this too…
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You may recall that I was pointing out the bull run in ENDP as similar to MJ Stocks in Fridays report. This one Popped but then went sideways, then higher, then sideways, then higher. Did the Weekly chart also have that reversal candle at the lows? Yes…
ENDP WEEKLY did also have that reversal that bounced off of the 10 week MA, and then it went sideways for 2 more weeks. Now this one didn’t have as big of a Volume Spike as CDE or the MJ’s, so we’ll see if that makes a difference going forward, but this is another example of the big sell off, Reversal Hammer to the 10 week ma, and then higher. IT HAS DOUBLED, but it went sideways at the lows first for 3 weeks. I just wanted to point that off if MJ Stocks stall next week.
